HI Market View Commentary 07-27-2026
This week we have a cease fire with Iran BUT we also have the FOMC Rate meeting
HI is mostly protected due to earnings coming up this week and the earnings we already had last week.
KEY beat on the top $0.44 EPS vs Est $0.42 BUT 1960 vs Est 1970
For the most part they traded flat
GOOGL $9.11 vs Est $2.87 BUT the adjusted earnings came in at $2.65
What the HELL are adjusted earnings =
$9.11 Because there other company investments made $99Billion
There core revenue on EPS value made only $2.65 = clicks, advertising, cloud
NFLX $0.80 vs Est $0.79
12560 vs est 12580 Revenue
Earnings –
AAPL 7/30 AMC
BA 7/28 BMO
BABA 8/28 est
BIDU 8/19 est
COST 9/24 AMC
CVS 8/05 BMO
DIS 8/05 BMO
F 7/28 AMC
LULU 9/03 est
META 7/29 AMC
MSFT 7/29 AMC
MRVL 8/27 est
MU 9/23 est
NKE 9/29 est
NVDA 8/26 AMC
O 8/05 AMC
OWL 7/30 BMO
PLTR 8/03 AMC
QCOM 7/29 AMC
SPCX 8/04 AMC
UAA 8/07 BMO
V 7/28 AMC
WMT 8/20 BMO
https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture
The Big Picture
Last Updated: 24-Jul-26 15:50 ET | Archive
The risk of the market getting carried away
Briefing.com Summary:
*The yen’s 40-year low increases the risk of another carry-trade unwind that could trigger sharp, short-term volatility in global equity markets.
*Japanese policy action to support the yen could spark forced deleveraging as investors unwind yen-funded carry-trade positions.
*A carry-trade unwind is more likely to create a temporary market disruption than a systemic financial crisis, based on the August 2024 experience.
Kenny Chesney tells us in his country song “Don’t Blink” that 100 years goes by faster than you think. With your author nearly midway through his fifth decade of life, those words ring truer each year.
Some experiences feel like a long time ago. Most, though, feel like they happened only yesterday. Going back 40 years isn’t much of a stretch. It isn’t even half a blink.
Financial markets have recently taken us back to 1986–the last time the New York Mets won the World Series and the last time the Japanese yen was this weak against the dollar.
That milestone isn’t just a historical curiosity. It raises the market risk of another yen carry-trade unwind similar to the one that briefly rattled global markets in August 2024.
A Tourist Trap?
A weaker currency has its benefits. It boosts the earnings of Japanese multinationals generating revenue abroad in U.S. dollars and makes exporters more price-competitive internationally.
For Japan itself, a weaker currency is a boon for tourism, and it has also helped Japan emerge from a longstanding deflation environment.
For investors and speculators, the weaker yen has been a popular funding currency for carry trades, whereby investors borrow yen at low interest rates and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding currencies or assets, aiming to profit from the spread.
The U.S. has been a popular destination for carry-trade “tourists” thanks to its highly liquid markets, higher interest rates, and high returns for stocks (the S&P 500 is on pace for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit returns).
Those tourists had a painful experience in August 2024. First, the Bank of Japan surprised everyone with a rate hike on July 31, and then the U.S. released a weak employment report on August 2 that fomented recession worries. Investors suddenly anticipated a widening policy divergence, with the Bank of Japan tightening while the Federal Reserve appeared poised to ease policy.
Sure enough, the yen appreciated sharply against the dollar with short-covering activity in play alongside an unwinding of the suddenly less attractive carry-trade positions, a portion of which were presumably juiced with added leverage.
In the blink of an eye, the yen went from 152.78 against the dollar on July 30 to 141.69 on August 5. Over the same period, the CBOE Volatility Index went from 17.69 to as high as 65.73. The fallout in global equity markets was pronounced.
Between July 30 and August 5, the S&P 500 declined as much as 5.8%, the STOXX Europe 600 dropped as much as 6.7%, and Japan’s Nikkei plummeted 19.1%, punctuated by a 12.4% decline on August 5 that marked the largest single-day point loss in its history.
The speed and magnitude of those moves illustrated just how quickly a carry-trade unwind can spread across global financial markets.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The unwinding of yen-funded carry trades spilled quickly into global equity markets, triggering a sell-first-ask-questions-later response fueled by fears of forced liquidation.
We aren’t revisiting this situation now to be fearmongers. On the contrary, we are highlighting it as a market risk, knowing that:
- The yen is hovering at its weakest level against the dollar in 40 years.
- Japan’s finance minister has made it known that Japan stands ready to take “decisive steps” to support the currency if needed.
- The Bank of Japan isn’t expected to raise rates at its July policy meeting, making a surprise hike all the more impactful for the yen, and
- The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen with inflation concerns pushing up interest rates in the U.S., which is exerting even more pressure on the yen that threatens to drive up inflation in Japan and to invite some more aggressive policy action from the Bank of Japan.
In brief, the incentive for Japanese policymakers to act is increasing. Whether that comes through currency intervention, an unexpected BOJ rate hike, or both, the result could be another rapid unwinding of yen-funded carry trades.
Such a move could trigger sharp, short-lived losses. The good news is that it appears more likely to be a market risk than a systemic risk, assuming there isn’t some unforeseen exposure to broadly leveraged positions.
The distinction matters. Systemic risks threaten the functioning of the financial system itself and often have lasting economic consequences. Market risks, while painful, are typically driven by positioning and forced liquidations that eventually run their course. That was the case in August 2024.
The S&P 500 and STOXX Europe 600 recovered the entirety of the losses noted above approximately two weeks later. It took the Nikkei a little over a month. If you blinked, you might have missed that.
Don’t blink now, though. The ingredients for another carry-trade unwind are beginning to fall into place, and if August 2024 taught investors anything, it’s that these episodes can unfold in the blink of an eye.
—Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com
(Editor’s Note: The next installment of The Big Picture will be published the week of August 3)
Where will our markets end this week?
Higher
DJIA – Bullish
SPX – Bearish breaking the 50 day SMA
COMP – Bearish
Where Will the SPX end July 2026?
07-27-2026 +1.00%
07-13-2026 +1.50%
07-06-2026 +1.50%
Earnings:
Mon: NUE, WHR
Tues: KO, GLW, HLT, PYPL, UPS, SWKS, WM, BA, F, V,
Wed: GRMN, GEHC, GD, HUM, PG, SOFI, WING, BOOT, CMG, TREE, MOM, JCI, MSFT, QCOM,
Thur: ADT, MO, CNK, BMY, CROX, HSY, IP, VLO, YUM, YUMC, FSLR, GDDY, RDDT, WU, MA, AMZN, AAPL, MSTR,
Fri: CVX, D, CL, TROW
Econ Reports:
Mon: Durable Goods, Durable ex-trans,
Tue: Consumer Confidence, S&P 500 Case-Shiller,
Wed: MBA, FOMC Rate Decision
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, GDP, GDP Deflator, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Prices, PCE Core,
Fri: Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment
How am I looking to trade?
Placing ATM puts or slightly OTM for earnings
Adding Covered Calls to positions for the summer doldrums
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
info@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
Questions???
Trump’s new global tariff draws rebukes from trade partners over forced labor justification
Published Thu, Jul 23 202611:15 PM EDTUpdated Fri, Jul 24 20268:09 AM EDT
Anniek Bao@in/anniek-bao-460a48107/@anniekbyx
Key Points
- Several U.S. trading partners rejected the forced labor rationale behind President Donald Trump’s new global tariffs.
- The investigation is less about labor standards than about pressuring other countries to adopt Washington’s ban on Chinese forced labor goods, and about rebuilding the tariff regime the Supreme Court struck down, analysts say.
U.S. trading partners from Canberra to Brasília have rejected the forced labor rationale behind President Donald Trump’s new global tariffs, while most signaled they would keep negotiating rather than retaliate.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on Thursday took action under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing tariffs on 60 economies for what Washington called their failure to impose and enforce bans on goods made with forced labor.
The duties — 10% for partners that have adopted or committed to import prohibitions, 12.5% for those that haven’t — cover the top 60 US trade partners and 99.4% of American imports.
The measure replaces a temporary 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122 of the trade act, which expires July 24, a stopgap put in place after the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s emergency-powers tariffs unlawful in February. The forced labor probes give the administration a more durable legal foundation for a baseline tariff that the courts had challenged.
“These tariffs are unjustified, inconsistent with our free trade agreement, and should be removed,” Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said in a statement. “Australia’s measures to combat forced labor and modern slavery are among the strongest in the world, and we are recognized globally, including in the U.S., for our leadership.”
The U.S. imposed a 12.5% tariff on imports from Australia, China (including Hong Kong), Singapore and South Korea, alleging the countries failed to prevent goods made with forced labor from entering the American market.
Malaysia, Taiwan, Indonesia and India, meanwhile, continue to face 10% additional tariffs.
The impact on major Asian economies is likely to be limited, Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC on Friday.
“Asia will continue to benefit from tariff carve-outs, which include most types of electronics from consumer devices to chips,” said Xu, adding that “these goods have consistently been exempt under U.S. tariffs under the second Trump administration.”
Trump tries to make sure tariffs are ‘as legally durable as they can’: Expert
Brazil, which was hit with a 12.5% tariff, called the tariffs “arbitrary” and “unjustified.” President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he remained open to negotiations but that Brazil would seek other markets if it couldn’t sell into the U.S. The new duty stacks on a separate 25% Section 301 tariff imposed on Brazilian goods this month, rebuilding a 37.5% barrier — close to the 50% rate struck down as unlawful last year.
Chile’s government said the measure was inconsistent with the country’s labor standards and the technical, political and legal evidence it submitted throughout the investigation, according to a statement from the trade undersecretariat in Santiago. It noted the U.S. resolution doesn’t allege Chile exports goods made with forced labor, and said it would press for exclusions covering key export products.
Canada, placed in the lower 10% tier with an exemption for USMCA-compliant goods, struck the mildest tone. The move “is not unexpected,” Minister for Canada-U.S. Trade Dominic LeBlanc said in a statement, adding that Ottawa shares Washington’s objective on forced labor and would “continue engaging constructively” in the coming weeks.
New Zealand’s foreign ministry said in a market report that the trade minister made clear Wellington disagrees with the investigation’s findings and will continue to register that position with the U.S. government. Existing exemptions covering roughly 30% of New Zealand’s U.S.-bound exports, including beef and kiwifruit, remain unchanged.
No major partner has announced countermeasures over the forced labor tariffs.
The investigation is “not a labor-standards exercise but a mechanism for exporting America’s import ban on Chinese goods, as well as an attempt to recreate the tariff regime struck down by the Supreme Court,” the Peterson Institute for International Economics wrote earlier this week.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/26/opportunity-zone-investors-face-deferred-capital-gains-tax-bill.html
Some high-earning investors will soon owe taxes on years of deferred capital gains
Published Sun, Jul 26 20269:30 AM EDT
Key Points
- Investors have been able to put realized capital gains into Qualified Opportunity Funds and defer taxation until the end of 2026.
- Early investors — those who got in by the end of 2019 or 2021 — were also eligible for a 15% or 10% step-up in basis, respectively, on those gains, which means a lower tax bill.
- The next round of designated Opportunity Zones will take effect in 2027, at which point the tax benefits will change.
Some high-earning investors who deferred capital gains taxes through a special set of funds will soon have a tax bill coming due.
Authorized by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Opportunity Zones are economically distressed communities nominated by states and certified by the Treasury Department. To encourage investment in so-called Qualified Opportunity Funds — created to invest in those specified areas — Congress included several tax incentives related to capital gains.
For starters, investors who remain in the fund for 10 years generally won’t owe taxes on any gains earned on their investment. Additionally, investors who put realized capital gains from another investment in the fund have been able to defer paying taxes on that money. Investors who got in early enough also could reduce the amount of those deferred gains that would ultimately be taxed.
The end of this year marks the close of the deferral period — and the aggregate value of those deferred gains was $75 billion at the end of 2024, according to a new working paper from the Treasury Department’s Office of Tax Analysis.
“Regardless of when from 2018 to present investors have deferred gains … the deferral period will end on Dec. 31, 2026, making all the gains taxable as of that date,” said Jason Watkins, a partner with accounting firm Novogradac & Co. and an expert in Opportunity Zones.
Opportunity Zone investors skew wealthier
There were about 12,800 Qualified Opportunity Funds in existence as of the end of 2024, with roughly 41,000 investors in them, according to the Treasury research. The funds can invest in a variety of projects such as new housing, a property upgrade, a startup business or any other qualifying local initiative.
About 85% of the investors are individuals; the remainder are corporations, according to the research. The typical individual investor had adjusted gross income of $738,000 in 2024.
Capital gains taxes apply to profits taken from appreciated investments, and the tax rate depends on how long the investor has owned the asset. For those held longer than one year, the gains are considered long-term and taxed at rates of 0%, 15% or 20%, depending on the taxpayer’s income. Short-term gains — profits on investments held for a year or less — are taxed as ordinary income.
Hopefully they’ve planned for it and realize they’ll owe taxes on these gains.
Ryan Firth
Certified financial planner
Investors who got in on a Qualified Opportunity Fund by the end of 2019 using realized capital gains not only were able to defer taxes on those gains until the end of this year — assuming they haven’t already cashed out or otherwise lost eligibility — but they also are able to get a 15% step-up in basis on the deferred gains. That means 85% of the deferred gains will be taxed instead of 100%.
Investors who were in by the end of 2021 are eligible for a 10% basis step-up. Those who missed those deadlines get no extra benefit beyond deferring the taxation of their invested gains.
“Hopefully they’ve planned for it and realize they’ll owe taxes on these gains,” said Ryan Firth, a certified financial planner and certified public accountant based in Bellaire, Texas. “And hopefully they’ve set aside money to be able to pay the taxes.”
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Some funds also may have provided liquidity to investors to cover the taxes through debt-financing or other distributions, Watkins said. While the benefit of deferring gains is ending, the big payoff for investors hasn’t happened yet — tax-free gains on their investment after a decade of holding on to it — so most are likely to remain invested after this year, he said.
“I expect few investors to cash out to cover taxes as achieving a 10-year hold unlocks the most valuable of the [incentives], which is a potential tax-free exit,” Watkins said.
Some of the tax benefits will change as of 2027.
Rural investments get boosted tax incentives
President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill,” enacted last summer, made Opportunity Zones permanent. The legislation calls for new zones to be designated every 10 years, with the next round of nominations currently underway and set to take effect Jan. 1, 2027, according to the Economic Innovation Group, the think tank that hatched the idea for these funds.
Instead of at least one of the tax benefits being based on the timing of an investment in the fund, all investors will be entitled to a five-year capital gains deferral, at which point they’d get a 10% step-up in basis.
“Permanency with both a five-year deferral and a 10% basis step-up available regardless of when investors make their investments provides investors with more certainty,” Watkins said.
Additionally, investing in funds focused on rural areas comes with an extra tax benefit — those investors would get a 30% step-up in basis on their originally deferred gains after five years, Watkins said.
Google Cloud CEO Kurian says customers are spending 50% more as segment blows away expectations
Published Thu, Jul 23 202610:57 AM EDT
Updated Thu, Jul 23 20265:50 PM EDT
Key Points
- Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian told CNBC on Thursday that the company’s existing customers are spending “roughly 50% more” than they’ve already committed.
- That helped drive the red-hot growth in its cloud segment, which saw its revenue jump 82% year-over-year.
- Google parent Alphabet’s shares slid Thursday as investors fretted over its increased AI spending plans.
Google Cloud CEO: We are very disciplined in our capex
Google’s cloud chief Thomas Kurian said the company’s existing customers are shelling out “roughly 50% more” than they’ve already committed to spend on its products, which helped drive its red-hot cloud growth during the second quarter.
“Our existing customers have increased their spend when they make a commitment to us,” Kurian told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday. “They’re spending roughly 50% more than the commitment, and so it comes down to the differentiation in our product portfolio, the strength we have in our go-to-market execution, and you see that in both top line and operating income growth.”
Kurian’s comments come after Google parent Alphabet posted better-than-expected revenue for the second quarter on Wednesday, helped by growth of 82% year-on-year in its cloud business.
Demand for its cloud services is strong enough that the company plans to call on third-party providers to fill in extra capacity. That drove shares of neocloud providers CoreWeave and Nebius higher.
Kurian said the move is necessary, even though it will hurt margins, because it allows Google to capture that demand and those customers tend to spend more on its other services.
“So for us, when we look at the short term, we’re going to rent some capacity for you know a few quarters,” Kurian said. “It allows us to bring customers in, bridge them over to when we have sufficient capacity available, and then that will compound over time, and the return on investment makes sense for us.”
Alphabet shares plunged 7.1% on Thursday after the company boosted its capital spending forecast to as much as $205 billion this year, worrying investors who are jittery about ballooning artificial intelligence budgets.
The company said it now expects to spend between $195 billion and $205 billion in 2026, up from the $180 billion to $190 billion forecast provided last quarter. Its capex reached $44.9 billion during the second quarter, with most of the spending going toward AI infrastructure.
Tech companies are burning through cash to bankroll spending on AI infrastructure, while trying to reassure Wall Street that those investments will yield returns.
Before Alphabet’s second-quarter report, tech’s megacaps were expected to spend roughly $725 billion this year on AI initiatives. That total will likely rise as more of Alphabet’s peers post quarterly earnings in the coming days. Amazon, Microsoft and Meta will all report results next week.
Kurian defended the company’s “very, very disciplined” capex spending and said companies are seeing real returns on utilizing Google’s AI solutions.
“Macy’s, for example, has found as they deployed our AI system, it’s improved the size of the shopping basket that they see,” he said. “We’ve seen Macquarie Bank save a lot of processing time by automating many of the workflows in their organization.”
KeyCorp tops earnings forecasts as profit climbs despite slight revenue miss (KEY)
Fiona Craig
Tue, July 21, 2026 at 5:23 AM MDT
Bank posts stronger quarterly earnings
KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) reported second-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday that exceeded earnings expectations, although revenue came in just below Wall Street forecasts.
The bank posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.44, ahead of the consensus estimate of $0.42. Revenue totaled $1.96 billion, narrowly missing analysts’ expectation of $1.97 billion.
Shares rose 1.89% in pre-market trading following the earnings release.
Net interest income drives year-over-year growth
Net income from continuing operations increased 22% from a year earlier to $472 million for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Total revenue rose 7% year over year from $1.84 billion, supported by a 9% increase in net interest income to $1.26 billion.
The bank also expanded its net interest margin to 2.89%, an improvement of 23 basis points compared with the same quarter last year.
“Our second quarter results reflect the strength of our franchise, disciplined execution, and sustained momentum across our businesses,” said Chairman and CEO Chris Gorman. “We delivered 7% revenue growth and generated approximately 130 basis points of operating leverage on a year-over-year basis.”
Commercial lending supports balance sheet expansion
KeyCorp continued to grow its loan portfolio during the quarter.
Period-end loans increased by $1.2 billion from the previous quarter, led by a $2.1 billion, or 3%, increase in commercial and industrial lending.
The provision for credit losses declined to $92 million from $138 million in the prior-year period, while net charge-offs were 42 basis points.
The allowance coverage ratio eased by 4 basis points sequentially to 1.56%.
Share repurchases continue despite higher expenses
The bank repurchased $341 million of common stock during the quarter while maintaining a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 11.2%.
Noninterest expense increased 6% year over year to $1.22 billion, primarily reflecting higher employee-related costs, including benefits and incentive compensation.
Ford makes big moves to be No. 1 mainstream brand in J.D. Power Initial Quality Study
By Jason Bell | Posted – July 17, 2026 at 8:00 a.m.
This story is sponsored by Wasatch Front Ford Dealers.
By now, I’ve driven every vehicle in Ford’s current lineup. Heck, I even owned — all too briefly — a Bronco (and absolutely loved it). Across the board, there’s a lot to like about the Blue Oval, especially with the adventure-first vision championed by CEO Jim Farley.
But if I’m being honest, Ford hasn’t always been the first brand that comes to mind when people talk about quality and reliability. Those conversations have traditionally been dominated by brands from Japan and, to a lesser extent, Europe.
Then came the pandemic. It disrupted virtually every automaker, Ford included, forcing companies to rethink everything from supply chains to manufacturing processes. Ford responded with a renewed commitment to what it calls its “Quality Comes First” initiative, investing heavily in engineering, manufacturing and software development.
Six years later, those efforts are paying off. Ford has been named the number one mainstream brand in the 2026 J.D. Power U.S. Initial Quality Study — a milestone that would have been hard to imagine just a few years ago.
Here’s why that matters, what Ford changed behind the scenes and why you’ll want to put Ford on your shopping list.
More than an award — it’s an indicator of things to come
Every automaker likes to advertise awards, but the J.D. Power Initial Quality Study carries more weight than most. Now in its 40th year, the study measures problems reported by owners during the first 90 days of ownership. This year’s results are based on responses from more than 78,000 owners and lessees of new 2026 model-year vehicles, along with real-world repair data collected from dealers. The way it works is by problems per 100 vehicles — known as PP100.
In other words, the lower the score, the better the quality.
This year, Ford posted a score of 152 PP100, edging out Nissan and Buick to become the highest-ranked mainstream brand.
“This is a proud day for everyone at Ford, and the result of years of intensive work across our company,” said Jim Farley, Ford president and CEO. “Many doubted that an American company could compete with the world’s best on quality, let alone reach the top. But we put our heads down and worked together every day to deliver for our customers. Today, Ford is the gold standard for new vehicle quality.”
That’s a pretty bold statement, but it’s not specific to just one model, either.
The Ford F-150, Mustang and Super Duty each ranked highest in their respective segments for the second consecutive year. Meanwhile, the Escape, Explorer, Expedition and Maverick all finished in the top three of their classes. In total, seven of Ford’s 10 eligible vehicles landed in the top three of their segments — the highest percentage of any automaker.
Quality doesn’t happen by accident
What impressed me most about Ford winning this award wasn’t the award itself — it was how they got there. And I’ll give credit where credit is due: Ford moved away from the quick fixes to their quality problems and fundamentally changed the way they develop and build their vehicles.
For starters, in 2023, the company brought its engineering, manufacturing, supply chain and quality control teams under one organization. This allowed these departments to collaborate more effectively — from the earliest stages of a vehicle’s development to final production.
“We rallied the whole company around a clear vision: Quality Comes First,” said Ford’s Chief Operating Officer, Kumar Galhotra. “That means hard-wiring rigorous processes deep into the way we work, building a culture of relentless problem-solving and recognizing our teams when they prevent issues from reaching customers.”
Ford also hired 300 veteran engineers whose sole responsibility is to identify potential problems before a vehicle ever reaches production. Weekly design reviews are now mandatory, which gives these engineers plenty of opportunities to catch issues early.
Impressively, Ford says that this proactive approach, combined with improvements to supply chain coordination and quality assurance software, has reduced launch issues by 30% year over year.
You can feel the difference
One thing that’s become apparent as I’ve worked through Ford’s lineup over the years is how consistent everything feels.
Whether it’s the versatile and affordable Maverick, the adventurous and fun-loving Bronco, the family-hauling Expedition or the many, many excellent variants of the F-150, there’s a sense of “put-togetherness” that didn’t always exist across the brand.
Panels fit together well. Interiors feel solid. Engines are strong. Seats are comfortable. Technology operates easily and reliably. Which, when all is said and done, is strong evidence for their “Quality Comes First” mantra introduced several years ago.
Everything I’ve driven from Ford in the past few years has worked as it should and has never given me reason to worry. That’s definitely worth something.
Should this change your opinion of Ford?
I don’t think anyone should ever buy a vehicle just because it won an award. You need to drive it, sit in it and thoroughly “try it on” before you put your hard-earned money down.
And, at the same time, if you’ve counted Ford out because of quality concerns from years past, it may be time to give their lineup another look.
This award didn’t just happen, nor was it bought, nor was it luck. It happened because some things have changed at Ford — and it shows.
My favorite quote from Ford’s announcement came from its COO, Kumar Galhotra, when he said, “Are we proud? You bet. Satisfied? Not even close. This is a milestone, not a finish line. We will celebrate this moment today, but tomorrow we are back at it: chasing perfection, driving continuous improvement and getting better every single day.”
The folks at the Blue Oval have always built vehicles people wanted. Now, increasingly, it’s building vehicles that owners can feel confident about for the long haul — and that’s worth celebrating.
About the author: Jason Bell is a lifelong car enthusiast who loves sharing his passions as a teacher, podcaster and automotive journalist. He is an accredited member of the Rocky Mountain Automotive Press. You can contact him at jasonbellcars@gmail.com or on his YouTube channel.
Alphabet shares fall on report its most powerful AI model Gemini 3.5 Pro is delayed
Published Thu, Jul 16 20263:07 PM EDT
Jonathan Vanian@in/jonathan-vanian-b704432/
Key Points
- Alphabet shares sank following a report that the company has delayed releasing its flagship artificial intelligence model.
- The model’s coding capabilities, in particular, were short of internal expectations, according to Bloomberg.
- Alphabet previously announced the Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model in May as part of the company’s annual Google I/O developer conference, saying at the time that it was being used internally.
Google’s next flagship Gemini model is reportedly months behind schedule
Alphabet shares sank 4% on Thursday following a report that the company has delayed releasing its flagship artificial intelligence model.
The search giant’s Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model is months behind schedule due to the company’s efforts to improve its performance, according to Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter. The model’s coding capabilities, in particular, were short of internal expectations and come at a time when rivals like OpenAI and Meta have recently debuted new AI models that outpace Google’s current offerings in generating software code, the report said.
The company previously announced the Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model in May as part of the company’s annual Google I/O developer conference, saying at the time that it was being used internally, but wouldn’t be ready for a broader rollout until the following month.
An Alphabet spokesperson told CNBC in an emailed statement that the company is “shipping quickly across a wide range of models while keeping them highly cost-effective for customers.”
“We’re currently testing 3.5 Pro, an upgraded Flash model, and other models with partners, and we’re productively engaged with the U.S. government,” the spokesperson said.
Code-generation has become one of the biggest use cases for AI model providers like Anthropic and OpenAI and Chinese AI labs like Z.ai that offer so-called open-weight variants that developers can access for free via the open-source ecosystem.
Meta debuted last week its Muse Spark 1.1 AI model, which the company’s AI chief Alexandr Wang described as the social media giant’s “strongest model for agentic and coding work yet.”
OpenAI last week released its GPT-5.6 Sol AI model, which CEO Sam Altman said is 54% more token efficient on agentic coding tasks, underscoring how AI labs are pitching their respective AI coding models as being cost-effective relative to their performance.
See if you qualify for Fidelity’s $2.5M data breach settlement and learn how to fight identity theft
Eligible customers could receive as much as $5,000, but the deadline to submit is July 27.
Updated Fri, Jul 24 2026
If you’re a Fidelity Investments customer, you may be eligible for a payment of as much as $5,000 stemming from a recent data breach settlement. But the deadline to file a valid claim in the $2.5 million deal is just days away.
Fidelity and its subsidiary Fidelity Brokerage Services agreed to the deal on May 13, closing the door on a lawsuit alleging the investment giant failed to both adequately prevent a cyberattack and alert members to its existence after the fact.
The last chance to submit a claim is Monday, July 27, 2026.
Fidelity settlement at a glance
- Settlement amount: $2.5 million
- Claim deadline: July 27, 2026
- Maximum reimbursement: Up to $5,000
- Estimated cash payment: About $100-$150
- Credit monitoring: Two years
- Final approval: July 9, 2026
In their complaint, the plaintiffs alleged that Fidelity detected suspicious activity on its network between Aug. 17 and 19, 2024, but waited almost two months before notifying customers. Calling the breach “preventable,” they claimed Fidelity’s “inadequately secured computer systems” allowed the attackers to gain entry.
Fidelity has denied any wrongdoing but said it agreed to settle because of “the uncertainty and risks inherent in any litigation.”
“We remain fully committed to the security of our clients’ accounts and personal information,” the company told CNBC Select in a statement. “Litigation can involve a considerable amount of time and resources, [and] a settlement is one way to avoid this for both parties.”
Here’s what you need to know about Fidelity’s $2.5 million settlement, including who is eligible, how to file a claim and what to do if you’re the victim of a data breach.
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Who is eligible for the Fidelity data breach settlement?
Class members could number more than 160,000, including those notified of the breach and others whose bank account and routing numbers were allegedly exposed.
If you’re not sure whether you are a class member, you can go to the settlement website, email info@FidelityDataSettlement.com or call 833-386-6470.
You can also contact the settlement administrator at:
Fidelity Data Security Incident Settlement
c/o Settlement Administrator
P.O. Box 25226
Santa Ana, CA
92799-9958
Struggling to pay off debt? Consider enlisting the help of a debt relief company
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How much can you receive?
Eligible class action members may receive up to $5,000, depending on the nature of their losses.
- Reimbursement of documented losses: You could receive up to $5,000 if you can document out-of-pocket losses incurred between Aug. 17, 2024, and July 27, 2026, resulting from the breach, including fraud and time spent restoring your identity.
- Pro rata cash payment: Members of the class without proof or explanation may be eligible for payments of approximately $100, although the actual amount will depend on the number of class members and other legal costs
- California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA): California residents may be eligible for an additional $50 payment.
- Credit monitoring services: Class members can also claim two years of free credit monitoring from CyEx, including $1 million in fraud and identity theft insurance.
How do you file a claim?
To receive a payment from the settlement, you must submit a valid claim by July 27, 2026. You can file online here or download the claim form and mail it to the settlement administrator.
The deadline to be excluded from the settlement was June 26, 2026.
Take action to protect your identity
Offers in this section are from affiliate partners and selected based on a combination of engagement, product relevance, compensation, and consistent availability.
When will settlement payments be sent?
The settlement was approved in a final fairness hearing on July 9, 2026. If there are no appeals, attorneys’ fees and the lead plaintiffs will be paid first.
The remaining funds will then be distributed among other class members who have submitted valid forms.
What should you do if your personal information was exposed?
In most cases, advice about identity theft is reactive:
- Place fraud alerts with Experian, Equifax and TransUnion.
- Review your bank and credit card statements for suspicious activity.
- Freeze your credit to prevent new accounts from being opened in your name.
- Report identity theft to the Federal Trade Commission and local law enforcement.
- Keep records of all communications and fraudulent transactions.
- At least once every six months, review your credit reports for signs of suspicious activity.
- Your credit card company or bank should provide updated credit score information for free.
- You can get free copies of your reports from each of the three major bureaus at AnnualCreditReport.com.
- You can get a free credit report from Experian every 30 days and CreditWise from Capital One provides free access to your TransUnion credit report. Equifax offers two free credit reports per year with myEquifax.
- For regular updates on all three reports, consider subscribing to a paid identity theft protection service like PrivacyGuard® or Experian IdentityWorks℠.
Americans say they need $1.2 million to retire comfortably, survey finds — but many expect to fall short
Published Wed, Jul 15 20268:31 AM EDT
Updated Thu, Jul 16 20264:29 PM EDT
Key Points
- Americans think they need to have $1.2 million saved to retire comfortably, according to a new survey from Schroders, a global investment firm.
- Yet 51% of respondents who participate in a workplace retirement plan expect to have less than $500,000 set aside when they reach retirement, according to the results.
- Here’s what’s behind that retirement readiness gap — and the steps investors who feel behind can take to close it.
Americans in a new survey said they will need to save $1.2 million, on average, to retire comfortably, according to global investment manager Schroders.
Yet just 30% of the 615 workplace retirement plan participants polled as part of Schroders’ 2026 U.S. Retirement Survey said they think they’ll reach a $1 million savings mark before retiring, the survey said.
More than half of the workplace retirement plan participants — 51% — said they expect to have less than $500,000 saved when they reach retirement, including 24% who expect to have less than $250,000 saved, according to the survey. The 615 plan participants were among the 1,500 investors ages 30-79 who were surveyed nationwide between March 20 and April 15.
Notably, 33% of the workplace retirement plan participants said they have more credit card debt than retirement savings, according to the survey. Meanwhile, 55% said they are unable to save 10% of their paycheck toward retirement due to competing expenses, and 69% said rising costs have put retirement out of reach for their generation.
When difficult choices have to be made, retirement savings may be the first thing to be deprioritized, the survey found. Some workplace retirement plan participants have opted to reduce their plan contributions or borrow from their 401(k)s to meet other financial goals, such as reducing debt, paying for emergency expenses or keeping up with rising living costs, according to the survey.
“Many investors are just struggling to turn their good intentions into long-term retirement readiness,” said Deb Boyden, head of U.S. defined contribution at Schroders.
What to prioritize instead of a ‘magic’ retirement number
The idea of a “magic” retirement savings number that may unlock the ideal retirement is not new.
Earlier this year, Northwestern Mutual found $1.46 million is the threshold Americans say they need to retire comfortably in 2026.
The retirement amounts people think they need may fluctuate with the cost of living — Northwestern Mutual’s estimate climbed $200,000 from last year. Schroders’ is down from $1.28 million. What’s more, they may be only guesses.
“It’s hard to save for a future that feels abstract when the present feels urgent,” said Douglas Boneparth, a certified financial planner and president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth in New York. Boneparth is also a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.
Rising costs, credit card debt and competing expenses aren’t excuses, they’re reality, Boneparth said.
Generating income for retirement: Here’s what to know
If you’re feeling behind on retirement savings, it can help to stop chasing a number and start building habits, he said.
While a goal like $1.2 million can feel far away when you have a balance of $12,000, someone who saves consistently, works to reduce high-interest debt and invests early “can close more ground than they think,” Boneparth said.
Whether a $1 million retirement savings benchmark suits you will vary based on where you live, your lifestyle and when you retire.
“You may need more or significantly less,” Boneparth said. “It depends.”
How money is invested matters
To reach retirement savings goals, it helps to have that money appropriately invested.
Yet Schroders’ survey found that 24% of the workplace retirement plan participants don’t know how their retirement savings are invested. Of those who do know, in allocations across all types of retirement savings accounts, a significant portion, 26%, is allocated to cash, almost equal to equities, with 27%.
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“For participants with long-term horizons, excessive cash can lead to a meaningful opportunity cost,” Boyden said.
Those cash holdings are largely driven by the pursuit of safety, which 53% of workplace retirement plan participants cited; the desire to diversify investments, 44%; and waiting for the right time to invest, 33%.
To gauge whether you’re on track toward retirement, consult a reputable financial advisor or the educational resources provided through your workplace retirement plan.
“Most people who feel stuck haven’t sat down with someone to map it out,” Boneparth said. “That conversation alone tends to shift things.”
Clarification: This article has been updated to clarify that the survey results cited are based on the responses of workplace retirement plan participants, a subset of the 1,500 investors who participated in Schroders’ 2026 U.S. Retirement Survey.
Netflix stock falls as earnings forecast disappoints, company says it will give fewer engagement updates
Published Thu, Jul 16 202612:11 PM EDT
Updated Fri, Jul 17 20264:06 PM EDT
Key Points
- Netflix reported second-quarter revenue and earnings roughly in line with Wall Street estimates.
- Its revenue increase was attributed to membership growth, pricing and higher advertising revenue.
- The company said its engagement is “healthy” following recent reports of a slowdown for the metric, but it also said would cut back on the frequency of its “What We Watched” reports, which provide a picture of engagement.
Netflix sinks on weak outlook
Netflix reported second-quarter revenue and earnings that were roughly in line with analyst estimates on Thursday as Wall Street is keeping a close eye on the company’s advertising and engagement metrics.
Netflix stock fell more than 7% in trading Friday as investors appeared disappointed once again in the company’s earnings forecast.
Here’s how Netflix performed for the period ended June 30 compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 80 cents vs. 79 cents estimated
- Revenue: $12.56 billion vs. $12.59 billion estimated
Netflix reported $12.56 billion in revenue, up 13% year over year and just slightly missing analyst expectations. The rise was attributed to membership growth, pricing and increased ad revenue.
Earlier this year, Netflix raised its subscription prices across all its streaming plans. The company said Thursday the results of those price hikes were consistent with prior changes and expectations.
Net income for the second quarter was $3.40 billion, or 80 cents per share, compared with $3.13 billion, or 72 cents a share in the same period last year.
Netflix shares drop more than 5% on mixed Q2 results, Evercore ISI’s Mahaney weighs in
Netflix expects third-quarter revenue to grow 12% and called its 2026 outlook consistent with earlier forecasts. The company said it was narrowing its 2026 forecast revenue range to $51 billion to $51.4 billion for the full fiscal year, from earlier guidance of between $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion.
Engagement focus
Questions about engagement were top of mind for analysts during Thursday’s earnings call.
The streaming giant called engagement with its content “healthy,” saying live events were a top draw for members, who watched more than 97 billion hours of total content in the first half of this year. The engagement metric has come into focus after reports that viewership for Netflix series drops following the first season.
“I’ll start by saying there is not a linear relationship between viewing hours and revenue and profit, because all hours are not created equal,” co-CEO Greg Peters said during the call.
Co-CEO Ted Sarandos also said Thursday that there isn’t “any material change” in second season viewership of series versus the first season, following an earlier report that said there was a drop-off. “Our season two fall off has actually slightly improved this year relative to last year, so no changes in release strategies,” Sarandos said on the call.
Yet, on Thursday, the company said it would cut back on the frequency of its “What We Watched” reports, which provide a picture of engagement. Following the release of Thursday’s report – which gives information on viewership for the first half of 2026 – Netflix will shift to publishing the report annually in the first quarter beginning in 2027.
The company said its goal in separating out when “What We Watched” is published from its earnings results is to keep the focus on financial metrics like revenue and operating profit.
In general, Netflix called out live events as some of its top programming this year, with live events accounting for six of the top 10 new member sign-up days over the past five years.
Still, Netflix noted that while live programming accounts for more than 5% of its content spending, it makes up about 1% of viewing hours.
Netflix noted that it only got into live programming in 2023, following years of growth solely on original content and licensed TV series and movies. Since then, the company has been bulking up on sports rights.
Live sports often pull in the biggest advertising dollars — something that has become important to driving revenue growth for Netflix, particularly as streaming subscriber growth has slowed.
On Thursday, the company said it still expects to roughly double its ad revenue year over year to $3 billion.
Netflix added that it is in “advanced stages” of discussions with advertisers in the U.S. as part of its Upfront negotiations, with the expectation that commitments will close in the coming weeks. Live sports, such as the Women’s World Cup, more NFL games, MLB events and WWE, have attracted solid demand for the company.
The company introduced its cheaper, ad-supported plan to customers in recent years as a new revenue driver. On Thursday, Peters said it was often thinking about its pricing and plan choices, and how to expand offerings.
One option could be a free tier, which Peters said “could make sense in some markets, but we have to be thoughtful about cannibalization of paid tiers.”
“It’s probably also worth noting that having an effective scaled ads business in any candidate country for such an offering is clearly an important enabling factor to make those economics work,” Peters said. “So that’s all to say that free is something that we’re going to continue to consider, but we have no near-term plans to launch something.”
Such changes have come in response to increased competition across the media landscape. In Thursday’s shareholder letter, Netflix noted that the “entertainment industry remains dynamic and competitive.”
Late last year, Netflix made a play for Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and streaming business before ultimately walking away from the deal. The proposed deal set off a flurry of speculation about if Netflix is now interested in buying other assets.
Netflix said in its earnings report its approach hasn’t changed as it will “prioritize reinvestment in the business, both organically and through selective M&A, while maintaining a health balance sheet and ample liquidity.” Prior to its bid for WBD’s assets, Netflix had long called itself a builder, not a buyer.
On the call, Netflix executives said they wouldn’t comment on speculation, but reiterated their past mantra.
“As Ted said, we are primarily builders, not buyers,” CFO Spencer Neumann said. “We have a really high bar.”
Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn’t buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices
Published Mon, Jul 20 20267:01 PM EDT
Updated Tue, Jul 21 20266:24 AM EDT
Key Points
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors are underestimating geopolitical and fiscal risks that could eventually rattle markets.
- Dimon said he wouldn’t be a buyer of either equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current prices.
- “I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think,” Dimon said, pointing to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and rising military spending in a time of mounting government deficits.
Sneak peek of Wilfred Frost’s one-on-one with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors are underestimating the risks facing the global economy and that he wouldn’t buy either equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at their current prices.
In an hourlong interview with Wilfred Frost released late Monday, Dimon said markets aren’t fully accounting for a growing list of geopolitical and fiscal threats.
“I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think,” Dimon said, pointing to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and rising military spending in a time of mounting government deficits.
Asked whether markets are underpricing the chance of a major shock, Dimon said it’s difficult to know exactly what risks are already reflected in asset prices.
“It’s possible something’s baked in, but what’s not baked in is what actually happens,” he said.
Dimon, who leads the world’s largest bank by market cap, often warns the public about the economic risks he sees.
His latest comments contrast with investors’ recent willingness to look past wars, tariffs and other shocks. The S&P 500 has returned nearly 10% this year as consumers continue to spend, inflation has moderated and investors have embraced the artificial intelligence trade.
Last week, JPMorgan Chase and its peers posted blockbuster quarterly results powered by surging trading and investment banking revenue, reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy has weathered recent geopolitical turmoil better than many expected.
Dimon acknowledged in the interview with “The Master Investor Podcast” that the global economy has become more resilient because of a lower energy dependence than in previous decades, but warned that doesn’t eliminate the possibility of a sudden inflection point.
“You may need more straws in the camel’s back to cause that tipping point,” he said. “Even this current war starting up again, maybe that’s not enough to do it.”
Persistent U.S. budget deficits will eventually force a reckoning, potentially driving interest rates higher, Dimon said.
“My view is it will become a problem,” he said, predicting higher interest rates as so-called bond vigilantes demand greater compensation to finance the government’s debt.
Stocks, AI cycle
When asked, Dimon said he wouldn’t purchase long-dated Treasurys: “Personally, no,” he said.
Even if inflation falls back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, “the 10-year bond should probably be at 4% to 4.5%,” he said, adding that he sees little upside for Treasury prices.
He was similarly cautious on stocks. While he would consider an individual stock if it was “a great investment,” Dimon said he wouldn’t be a buyer of the broader market at current valuations.
Dimon also struck a measured tone on artificial intelligence, comparing today’s spending boom to the early days of the internet.
“The amount of money being spent is huge. Will it in total pay off? Probably, just like the internet did,” Dimon said.
He also pointed out that during that internet boom, big early players such as Yahoo and Netscape faded while eventual winners such as Google and Facebook emerged later.
“Will it pay off the way you expect and the timetable you expect? Definitely not,” Dimon said.
