NO RECORDING THIS WEEK

HI Financial Services Mid-Week Commentary 02-24-2016

I trade to live, not live to trade – Kevin Hurley

 

YES, I think the market is extremely difficult right now because, we are in a choppy range bound market

It’s OK to be down a bit and have a process in place

It is NOT ok to have booked over a 15% loss year to date. 

$1 becomes $0.85 and a 20% return gets you to $1.02

An 18% return gets you to $1.003

 

It is OK to protect your positions and I understand NOT wanting to overpay

How do you not over pay?

What I have done this week and last is sell longer term short call options.  Some leaps, some 6 months out some 3 months out. 

 

Technically we have a sideway chart for movement on our market with lower volume, no catalyst, to buyers and lower oil prices. 

 

What’s happening this week and why?

Case Shiller 5.7 vs est 5.8

Consumer Confidence 92.2 vs est 97.3

Existing Home Sales 5.47 vs est 5.30

MBA -4.3 vs last weeks 8.2

New Homes sales 494 ns est 523

 

First week of the Retail sales earnings

 

 

Where will our market end this week?

Down 1% from the close today

 

DJIA – Technically Bullish but we are pinched between support and the 50 SMA

   

SPX –  We have three technical crossovers to the bullish side BUT we are not bullish yet

With the Bollinger bands widening we are “validating” a stagnant or sideways trend

 

 

 

COMP – Bullish with no volume and widening Bollinger bands

 

 

Where Will the SPX end February 2016?

02-24-2016           +1%

02-17-2016           +1%

02-03-2016           +1%

 

 

What is on tap for the rest of the week?=

Earnings:

Tues:          DLTR, DRYS, FIVN, HD, SJM, M, ODP, PZZA, TOL

Wed:          CHK, CROX, LB, LOW, NTES, TGT, TJX, RIG

Thur:          BBY, CPB, CLDX, CHS, DPZ, GPS, BIDU, HLF, IM, KSS, KHC, MNST, NDLS, NTRI, SDRL,

Fri:             AMT, FL, HLT, JCP, KBR

 

Econ Reports:

Tues:           Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales,

Wed:          MBA, New Housing Starts

Thur:          Initial, Continuing Claims, Durable Goods, Durable ex-trans, FHFA Housing Price Index

Fri:             GDP, GDP Deflator, Personal Income, Personal Spending, CORE PCE Prices, Michigan Sentiment

 

 

Int’l:

Tues –        

Wed –        

Thursday –  EMU: M3 Money Supply, HICP

Friday –    

Sunday –    JP: Industrial Production, Retail Sales

 

 

How I am looking to trade?

I’ve added longer term short calls to buy me a day or two “aka… Like today”

If I can validate a movement to the lower end of the range I am doubling up on puts for DIS, BIDU, V, NVDA, FB,

 

 

Questions???

 

 

www.hurleyinvestments.com 

www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite

customerservice@hurleyinvestments.com = Email

 

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