Earnings don’t matter! Wait What?
The market doesn’t care what happened. Participants anticipate everything. The new information released in the conference call is way more important than the earnings number.
During my investing career, I’ve seen people trade based on the actual earnings values. Then they started looking at earnings estimates, then they started looking at the whisper number, now they make up their minds based on forward looking statements made in the conference call.
Let’s talk about NFLX.
Dang it NFLX – But we did say we were running OTM Puts and we did excellent for KEY & JPM
OK here is the important information on NFLX Earnings
Hasting is leaving the board and last time he was “kicked out” of the company they tanked with poor leadership
They didn’t adjust their guidance after dropping out of the Warner Brothers bid
The adjusted earnings showed a miss on EPS even with raising the price of their services.
Earnings –
AAPL 4/30 AMC
BA 4/22 BMO
BABA 5/14 est
BIDU 5/13 est
CB 4/21 AMC
CVS 5/06 BMO
DIS 5/06 est
F 4/29 AMC
GE 4/21 BMO
GOOGL 4/29 AMC
LMT 4/23 BMO
META 4/29 est
MSFT 4/29 AMC
MSTR 4/29 est
MU 6/23 est
NEM 4/23 AMC
NVDA 5/20 AMC
O 5/06 AMC
OWL 4/30 BMO
PLTR 5/04 est
UAA 5/14 est
V 4/28 AMC
VZ 4/27 BMO
WMT 5/21 AMC
https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture
The Big Picture
From red lines to record highs
Briefing.com Summary:
*Ceasefire signals de-escalation with Iran triggered short covering, cash deployment, and rapid shift from correction fears to record highs.
*Key risks reversed: oil, yields, and S&P rebounded sharply, fueling momentum, FOMO, and speculative buying in high-beta stocks.
*Rally now driven by AI enthusiasm, mega-cap strength, and rising earnings estimates, though consumer weakness could threaten growth outlook.
The stock market has had a monster rally, and we saw it coming. Maybe not the monster part, but certainly the rally part.
Our concluding thought in our March 27 column was this:
With the S&P 500 nearing a 10% correction and some other important red lines coming into focus, there is an opportunity to start legging into the market with cash sitting on the sidelines. However, with other issues lurking out there, like the private credit worries, rising mortgage default rates, tariffs, and AI disruption, it is not an “all-in” environment because it is tough to be all-in like before on the achievability of earnings estimates.
In short (covering) order, the market has gone from red lines to green lights and record highs.
The Beginning of the End
What happened? We’re going to skip to the end before we go back to the beginning.
President Trump issued a threat in late March that the U.S. would destroy Iran’s power and energy infrastructure if a ceasefire deal isn’t reached and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately open for business. Then, there were reports that the president was willing to end the war with Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully open.
The market read between those lines that the president might be seeking an off-ramp from the war.
The ebb and flow of this contentious matter continued, though, with a subsequent warning from the president that a whole civilization will die if Iran did not meet an 8:00 p.m. ET deadline on April 7 to open the Strait of Hormuz.
It was at a boiling point of being a worst-case scenario, so there was much relief when the president announced ahead of the deadline that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire agreement. The market read between those lines: the beginning of the end was at hand.
It was a headline that unleashed a wave of short-covering activity, a scurry by money managers to rebalance, and a move by investors to put cash sitting on the sidelines back to work.
A Good Monster
What red lines were crossed? From our vantage point, they were oil trading above $100/bbl, average gas prices above $4.00/gallon, a move in the 10-yr note yield to 4.30% but particularly above 4.50%, and a 10% correction in the S&P 500 that would take it to the 6300 area.
These were laid out in our March 5 column.
WTI crude prices peaked at $117.63/bbl on April 7; average gas prices hit $4.15/gallon a week ago; the 10-yr note yield got as high as 4.46% on March 27; and the S&P 500 hit a low of 6316.91 on March 30.
Today, oil prices went as low as $78.97/bbl with news that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened for all to transit, except Iran, until it agrees to U.S. conditions; average gas prices are at $4.07/gallon (but should be falling further); the 10-yr note yield is at 4.25%, and the S&P 500 (oh, the S&P 500!) hit an all-time high of 7140.10, up 13% from the March low in a span of just 13 trading sessions.
That is a good monster that scares the living cash out of investors sitting on the sidelines, fearful of missing out on further gains. It is the monster that fuels momentum trading and speculative energy into high-beta names.
It is a monster, the degree of which we did not see coming.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
With the Iran war going from boiling to simmering, the market was free to divert its attention to other matters. Specifically, it got reacquainted with mega-cap stocks, it found comfort in bank CEOs downplaying the systemic risk of problems swirling in the private credit market, it embraced the AI boom again, and it seized on an otherwise impressive earnings growth outlook.
The forward 12-month EPS estimate has risen from $317.69 at the start of the Iran war to $335.25 today; meanwhile, the CY26 EPS estimate has increased from $309.82 to $320.23, the latter of which is an 18.5% increase over CY25.
There is a lot of faith in the ability of companies, in aggregate, to live up to those high expectations. So far, there haven’t been any convincing warnings that the end of this strong growth outlook is also at hand, but it may not be the kind of smooth sailing the estimate trend suggests if real earnings and real spending continue to dwindle in the face of higher prices.
That is something to keep a close watch on in the months ahead, because if the consumer pulls back harder on the discretionary reins, the strong earnings growth won’t materialize as expected, and a bad correction monster could show itself again.
For now, though, the stock market is wrapped up in a good, monstrous rally as it believes the Iran war is about to wrap up without lasting economic damage.
—Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com
(Editor’s note: The next installment of The Big Picture will be published the week of April 27).
Where will our markets end this week?
Higher
DJIA – Bullish
SPX – Bullish
COMP – Bullsih
Where Will the SPX end April 2026?
04-20-2025 +2.5%
04-13-2026 +2.5%
04-06-2026 +2.5%
Earnings:
Mon: CLF, ALK, ZION,
Tues: MMM, DHI, UNH, VMI, COF, ISRG, UAL, GE, CB,
Wed: T, PM, IBM, KMI, LUV, TSLA, TXN, BA, GEV,
Thur: AAL, FCX, HON, SNA, UNP, INTC, NEM, LMT
Fri: PG, WU
Econ Reports:
Mon:
Tue: Pending Home Sales, Business Inventories, Retail Sales, Retail ex-auto , Senate Banking Committee Hearing for Kevin Warsh
Wed: MBA, EIA Petroleum Status
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Report
Fri: Michigan Consumer Sentiment
How am I looking to trade?
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
info@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
Questions???
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/netflix-q1-earnings-snapshot-201648520.html
Netflix: Q1 Earnings Snapshot
Associated Press
Thu, April 16, 2026 at 2:16 PM MDT 1 min read
LOS GATOS, Calif. (AP) — LOS GATOS, Calif. (AP) — Netflix Inc. (NFLX) on Thursday reported first-quarter profit of $5.28 billion.
The Los Gatos, California-based company said it had net income of $1.23 per share.
The results topped Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 76 cents per share.
More from Yahoo Scout
How much profit did Netflix generate in Q1?
How did Netflix’s Q1 earnings compare to analyst expectations?
What were Netflix’s revenue figures for the first quarter?
What is Netflix’s revenue guidance for upcoming quarters?
The internet video service posted revenue of $12.25 billion in the period, also exceeding Street forecasts. Nine analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $12.17 billion.
For the current quarter ending in June, Netflix said it expects revenue in the range of $12.57 billion.
The company expects full-year revenue in the range of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion.
_____
This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research. Access a Zacks stock report on NFLX at https://www.zacks.com/ap/NFLX
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-just-let-investors-down-on-this-metric-too-120212642.html
Netflix just let investors down on this metric too
Netflix (NFLX) appears to have forgotten its stock buyback plans in the first quarter.
Wall Street isn’t happy about it and a host of other elements in the streaming giant’s late Thursday earnings report.
Netflix only repurchased $1.3 billion of its stock in the first quarter, a slower pace than the $2.3 billion quarterly average in 2025. With Netflix shares falling 1% in the first quarter due to lingering concerns about the price tag for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) — a deal Netflix has since dropped — the lack of more aggressive buying of the stock could be viewed as a red flag by investors.
What’s more, executives told Wall Street on its earnings call that there are no changes to its capital allocation program, despite their positivity around new podcasts, vertical videos, and live events.
About $6.8 billion remains for repurchase under Netflix’s authorization.
So if Netflix intends to be an aggressive buyer of its stock as a show of confidence in its future fundamentals this quarter and into year-end, it will likely come as a surprise to the Street.
“Recall, after large scale M&A was called off, investors suspected Netflix may increase its share repurchases and raise its fiscal year 2026 margin outlook, which incorporated 50 basis points of M&A expenses,” Citi analyst Jason Bazinet wrote in a note. “In addition, some investors suspected the US price hike was previously not incorporated in the guidance. However, management suggested no change to their capital allocation strategy, maintained the FY26 outlook, and provided worse-than expected 2Q26 guidance. As such, we’d expect shares to trade lower (especially given the recent run in the equity).”
Netflix shares tanked 10% in premarket trading on Friday.
Netflix’s earnings day came up short elsewhere too.
Investors were frustrated that Netflix failed to raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance from $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion.
The company’s full-year operating margin guidance of 31.5% came in below the 32% analysts had modeled, suggesting that the “breakup fee” gains are masking higher content amortization costs.
And adding to the uncertainty, longtime chairman Reed Hastings announced he is officially stepping down, marking the end of an era just as the company faces increasing pressure to prove its advertising business can truly scale.
“Our overall view is that Netflix is properly valued at current levels and we believe increasingly growth is likely to be driven by price increases (and advertising gains off a relatively low base) rather than subscriber growth,” Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeff Wlodarczak wrote in a note, adding, “We view the story as lacking excitement relative to a rich valuation.”
Wlodarczak reiterated a Hold rating on Netflix shares.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance’s editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
