Trade Findings and Adjustments 03-16-23
What IS the next catalyst?
- If the next interest rate hike being 0%
- BUT Powell has indicated this week that the FED is still going to have to be aggressively raising rates since inflation numbers have still gone up.
- My suspicion is that the FED will go with a .50% rate hike
- So really NOT a catalyst and more of a risk that we are protecting stocks against.
- Earnings could show how good companies have been able to adapt to a higher interest rate environment
- World unrest won’t help as a catalyst
Right now what is newest market catalyst?
Bank Failures = Regional = Runs on cash, liquidity for lending/borrowing, POORLY RUN
FOMC Interest rate hikes 3/22
Both of these move market what direction?=Bearish
IF you were putting on a trade today how are you going to play future market movements?
Dave= I am ready to pull the trigger on protection = Better do by tomorrow because next week the protection will be at a higher premium
Putting on new positions better be non-directional or to the downside most likely = Risk is to the downside
What does 2021 7.5% inflation and 2022 6.4% inflation mean?
THIS DOES NOT MEAN IN FLATION IS COMING DOWN !!!!
Yes lower inflation y/y BUT 7.5% inflation growth + 6.4% inflation growth = 13.9% inflation growth over two years