HI Market View Commentary 06-09-2025
I AM NOW PUTTING THE LINK FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO AT THE END OF THE NOTES!
FIRST = the myhurleyinvestment.com website was hacked for the third time in the last 5 years
Wednesday evening everything should be back to normal
Learning Lesson
Your risk tolerance comes down to how long CAN you wait until stocks move?
We make some of the downward movement and covert those gains into more shares for an explosive upward movement
Risks= YES because sometimes the market doesn’t recognize a cheap stock
Does past performance guarantee future results? NO
AI = Artificial Intelligence is quick data gathering.
AS OF RIGHT NOW there is NO ITELLIGENCE in AI
AAPL is way behind
Algorithm Trading ONE More time = META Trading or AUTO Trading, Algorithm trading
Updated Apr 28, 2025
Emotional or AI (not meeting expectations)?
Recent Update (4/28/2025) –
Since the meltdown in my account a few weeks ago, the algorithm isn’t trading – zero activity. Put a support text into Justin and team to see what has happened and what to expect. I was informed the bot would restart over the last week, at the latest, but nothing yet. Stay tuned.
BTW, I think, for those that rely on TrustPilot and that use MetaTrading, it would be good to get some collective experiences in light of what happened during the month of April 2025 in terms of responsiveness and performance. Are you seeing/experiencing what I am?
Last Update —
It appears the algorithm has stopped reacting and the account equity is down by 1/3 … rough day and the cause are the tariffs according to Metatrading’s email sent today. While news events can affect the algorithm, I’ll be in communication with Metatrading to better understand the controls and limits that can prevent this from happening again. Will update again when I have more news.
Prior Post (4/3/2025) —
Just this day, I have lost all the gains made in 2025 (made ~8% over 3 months), the algorithm went far below the stop limit I was told (7%), and now the equity is down 30+%. I’m frustrated and it appears that the people at Metatrading are not able to intervene … nor can I.
The irony is that I got engaged with Metatrading to remove the emotion and to normalize the wild swings of trading but this one day has made me more emotional … the loss is 40+%.
Not having some kind of manual override is a major concern and I cannot for the life of me understand what happened to the stop limits. I’ll post an update if there’s any recovery or if this algorithm wipes out everything … so much for the zero sum game.
Date of experience: April 03, 2025
Updated Nov 3, 2024
Lost $10K. Was encouraged to stay in when I had only lost $5K, demanded they extend their refund period, lost $5K more. Then had trouble getting my refund.
In fact, I have had to report fraud to AMEX. I’d like to see them respond to that below. Their guarantee is also a lie, as their results obviously are.
This is my first ever TrustPilot review.
Why a 5 star review? So you will read it in that section. I’ll see if I can leave one in the 1 star section as well.
This product did not operate as advertised and lost me money. They should not be in business. Recommend against. They will write a response to this, I suggest you ignore it and invest more wisely in something else.
U can see their response below now. My guess? LYING.
I was in the the thing for 3 months. It DID NOT perform as they say.
The 5 star rating in the only lie I’m telling.
Read their response below. I’m worried about fluctuations in the market? Feeling stress? Well, to hear them tell it THIS WAS BIGGER THAN THE BIGGEST DRAWDOWN THEY HAD EVER HAD. My drawdown was 20%, their historic largest one before me (unless they were…what’s the word…LYING?)…had been 11-13%. So, biggest loss in their history, take it in stride? Or was it a lie? No thank u.
Possible catalysts – Rate Cut, BIG Country trade deals, China Trade Deal, We need to do better for those that live here legally, for Americans
Earnings
MU 06/25 AMC
https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture
The Big Picture
Last Updated: 06-Jun-25 18:04 ET |
May jobs report eases economic fears
Column Summary:
*Labor market remains resilient; unemployment and wage growth support continued economic growth.
*The May jobs report eased fears of economic recession.
* A resilient labor market reduces the probability of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Nonfarm payroll growth may be slowing, but it isn’t declining. Average hourly earnings growth may be slowing, but on an inflation-adjusted basis, it is still positive. The unemployment rate may be up from a multi-decade low of 3.4%, but at 4.2%, it is still historically low.
The labor market, overall, may not be quite as strong as it once was, but it remains strong enough to lend confidence to the idea that the economy has enough labor market footing to remain on a growth trajectory.
Some Shortcomings
The May Employment Situation Report, to be fair, wasn’t completely above reproach. Some of its shortcomings include the following:
- With the revisions, employment in March and April combined was 95,000 lower than previously reported.
- The number of people working part-time for economic reasons (i.e., due to slack work or business conditions or could only find part-time work) was 4.624 million. While that was down from 4.690 million in April, it was up from 4.415 million in the same period a year ago.
- Employment in the temporary help services industry declined by 20,300.
- The vast majority of the nonfarm payrolls increase in May was driven by two industries: health care and social assistance (+78,300) and leisure and hospitality (+48,000).
With a report as comprehensive as the employment report, there will always be room to find some negatives in it. On balance, the May report was as good as the stock market could have hoped for at the time it was released — and we don’t mean 8:30 a.m. ET.
We mean on the heels of an ADP Employment Report that showed only 37,000 jobs added to private-sector payrolls in May. We mean in the wake of an ISM Services PMI reading for May that showed only its fourth contractionary reading (49.9%) in the last 60 months. We mean in the midst of the U.S.-China trade uncertainty. We mean in the middle of argumentative negotiations over the reconciliation bill.
There was plenty that could have upended the labor market in May, but for the most part, the labor market stood its ground. That is an extremely important variable in assessing the economic outlook.
A Jobs Report That Fits the Bill
If people are gainfully employed, they will be spending money. This is a point we have made often, and it continues to be supported by the data, although the latest Personal Income and Spending Report for April did show some guarded spending activity. With personal income up 0.8%, personal spending rose only 0.2% following a 0.7% increase in March.
There was a lot going on in April to deter spending activity, not the least of which was all the tariff upset that spawned talk of a possible recession for the U.S. economy. That talk was tempered by the subsequent tariff pause announcement and the massive recovery rally that pause ignited, but it was really tempered by the arrival of hard economic data that showed resilience in the economy and activity that belied the ugly sentiment readings seen in the soft data.
Ironically, the April employment report was one of those hard data releases, and now the May employment report also fits that bill.
Some might take exception to that characterization given the softening stature of nonfarm payrolls, but the Treasury market didn’t appear to take exception to that view. If anything, it recoiled somewhat at the thought of the economy and average hourly earnings growth being better than feared.
Maturities from the 2-yr note to the 10-yr note all moved up at least 11 basis points following the release of the May employment report, the resilient nature of which cast some doubt on the timing of the Fed’s next rate cut. The move took the 2-yr note yield to 4.04% and the 10-yr note yield to 4.51%.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.00-4.25% at the July FOMC meeting has been reduced to 16.5% from 31.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut to 4.00-4.25% at the September FOMC meeting has been trimmed to 62.4% from 73.9% the day before the report.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The May Employment Situation Report easily surpassed the market’s worst fears. It wasn’t strong, but it was good nonetheless, and good is good enough right now for a market that is watching the hard data with an eagle eye to determine if it is showing some worrisome deterioration because of the policy uncertainty.
This report didn’t suggest as much. Instead, this important body of hard economic data indicated that, overall, the economy is still on solid footing despite the volatility of the stock market and the tariff uncertainty.
The most important takeaway is that the combination of the low unemployment rate and higher-than-expected average hourly earnings growth, which follows a robust 0.8% increase in personal income in April, will keep consumers on a spending path and the economy on a growth trajectory.
Notwithstanding the fact that this report should also keep any rate cut by the Fed on hold, this is a report that the stock market should have been cheering because it is a good economic report that is better for earnings prospects than a truly bad report would be.
—Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com
(Editor’s Note: The next installment of The Big Picture will be published the week of June 23.)
Where will our markets end this week?
Lower
DJIA – Bullish
SPX – Bullish
COMP – Bullish
Where Will the SPX end June 2025?
06-09-2025 +1.0%
06-02-2025 -2.0%
Earnings:
Mon:
Tues: PLAY, GME
Wed: CHWY, ORCL,
Thur: ADBE,
Fri:
Econ Reports:
Mon: Wholesale Inventory,
Tue
Wed: MBA, CPI, Core CPI, Treasury Budget
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, PPI, Core PPI
Fri: Michigan Sentiment
How am I looking to trade?
I need to be prepared for the summer doldrums
Short calls, Long Puts, Leap Long Calls to take advantage of a couple of months of sideways movement
Waiting for META to break $700 and stay above
Waiting for DIS to break $120
Waiting for NVDA to break and stay above $144-$145
Looking for MU earnings to move them back to $150
Waiting for BA to reach $250 with FAA news
Waiting for GOOGL to move to $200 based on the last two earnings calls
Waiting for BAC to run to $55
Waiting for JPM to move back to $255
YES out of BIDU Completely = May add a couple of leap long calls
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
info@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
Questions???
Opportunities = BA to $250, GOOGL – $200,
NO energy, no oil, no China,
MAG 7 will most likely hold the majority of the S&P 500 Gains again for three years in a row
CR’s Real-World EV Range Tests Show Which Models Beat EPA Estimates
Some electric cars from Ford, Lucid, and Tesla fell short, while others from BMW and Mercedes exceeded range expectations
By Keith Barry
Senior Autos Reporter
Additional reporting by Alex Knizek, Michael Crossen, Mike Quincy and Joseph VeselakData visualizations by Sharon Seidl
Updated June 3, 2025
In CR’s tests, the BMW i4 was one of several EVs to travel additional miles after zero range was indicated.
The advertised ranges of many electric vehicles can vary significantly from the number of miles they can actually cover on a highway road trip, as testing by Consumer Reports shows. When driven at a constant highway speed of 70 mph, some vehicles we tested fell up to 50 miles short of their advertised ranges, while others exceeded their advertised ranges—one by more than 70 miles.
“Range is much more important when you’re far from home and away from reliable charging,” says Alex Knizek, associate director, auto test development, at CR. “If you run out of charge on the highway, you may need to be towed, which could be both inconvenient and costly.”
But unlike the mileage estimates for conventional cars and hybrids, which indicate separate city and highway ranges, EV range estimates combine simulated city and highway driving, based on now-outdated standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency. Our testing shows that this estimate might not accurately reflect the range you can expect on the highway, where every mile counts. Further complicating matters is that EVs, unlike gas-powered cars, tend to be less efficient on highways than in cities.
“Real-world comparative tests are critical to understand if an EV is right for you,” says Jake Fisher, senior director of CR’s Auto Test Center. “That’s why we purchase our vehicles like a consumer would and drive them at highway speeds like a consumer would on a road trip.”
To find out how much range EV models actually get in highway driving conditions, we put EVs through a highway-speed range test, driving fully charged vehicles at a steady speed of 70 mph until they run out of charge.
“Even if the car indicated zero miles of range, we didn’t stop driving until the car came to a stop,” Knizek says. “Then we brought the car to a charger on a flatbed.” While most models stopped shortly after indicating zero range, a few traveled up to 30 additional miles.
We drove every car until the battery was fully exhausted, which is why we had to tow this Hyundai Ioniq 6 back to our test track after 265 miles.
Photo: Mike Crossen/Consumer Reports
Our Findings
Of the 30 EVs we have tested so far, more than half fell short of their EPA-estimated ranges when driven at highway speeds. We are continuing to evaluate highway range for every EV we test, and will post the results here as soon as they are available.
Although most vehicles that fell short only missed their EPA estimates by a handful of miles, we found the biggest difference in range with the Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck: Its battery ran out after just 270 miles—a 50-mile difference from the EPA estimate.
A few luxury sedans also fell short: Our Lucid Air missed its advertised 377-mile range by 40 miles. The Tesla Model S has an EPA range of 410 miles, but we measured only 366 miles of highway driving.
On the other hand, some BMW and Mercedes-Benz vehicles beat their EPA-estimated ranges by more than 40 miles. Our Cadillac Lyriq also exceeded EPA estimates at highway speeds.
“Those extra miles can be a benefit for those who need to drive in cold weather or utilize some of the blistering fast acceleration that EVs provide, both of which can cut range considerably,” Fisher says.
For more details on how our test models were equipped, as well as more test results, visit their model pages.
EPA ratings shown are for the specific trim level, wheel size, and year of each tested vehicle. If the tested version is no longer available by the manufacturer, the EPA rating from the most comparable new version is shown. CR highway range test results are removed entirely if the model has been updated significantly by the manufacturer, invalidating the original range test.
The difference between EPA range and our highway tests is largely due to how the EPA tests EVs, says Chris Harto, senior energy policy analyst at CR.
“EPA’s testing procedures date back to the early days of EVs, and what’s included on the window sticker is partially controlled by laws written decades ago for gas cars,” he says. “CR has asked EPA to start the process of modernizing these regulations to help provide more useful consumer information about today’s EVs, including highway range.” In 2024, the EPA told us that the agency is continuing to evaluate its methods and procedures for determining EV range.
How We Test EV Highway Range
To ensure the vehicle is properly broken in and still has full battery capacity, we only test cars we own with between 2,000 and 15,000 miles on the odometer. (Some vehicles from automakers, including Chevrolet, Nissan, Polestar, Rivian, and Tesla are not represented because we do not currently own them, they did not meet all of our testing criteria, or we simply haven’t tested them yet.)
Beyond mileage, we also inspect tires for additional wear, which can affect range. And as always, all tested vehicles were purchased anonymously from local dealerships and vehicle manufacturers.
Because driving in the cold and running the heater can shorten an EV’s range between 25 and 50 percent, we perform all our range tests in summer at temperatures between 70 and 90° F and when the weather is clear, which is the most favorable for EV range. If we purchase a new vehicle at another time of the year, we will initially score it based on its EPA range until we can perform our own tests.
We control the tests in other ways as well, setting tire pressure to factory specifications, preconditioning the vehicles inside our garage, setting climate control to 72° F, and using cruise control with speed and mileage verified via GPS. To better understand what drivers experience when range gets critically low, we also document what warnings the vehicles provide. We set regenerative braking to the lowest level, and we also test vehicles in Eco mode, if the car has it, to maximize range the way drivers would likely do on a road trip. If there’s a significant slowdown on our route, we restart the test.
EV Charging and Performance Scores
In addition to the highway test, our evaluations also reflect how EVs perform in real-world driving. Since we live with the EVs we purchase for our testing program, we know what it’s like to plug in our EVs every night or at public chargers on a road trip.
For example, we evaluate the speed of charging in two ways: The maximum miles of range you can add per hour of Level 2 charging, and the peak miles of range you can add per minute of DC fast charging under ideal conditions. Most Level 2 charging takes place at home or work—overnight or while you’re at the office. By comparison, most DC fast charging takes place on longer trips, when you’d rather be on the road than waiting at a charger, so we give more weight to quick DC fast charging than to Level 2 charging. This score also gives an advantage to more energy-efficient vehicles, which can go more miles per charge.
“This information allows shoppers to compare the unique characteristics of EVs and what it’s like to live with them every day,” Fisher says.
Tesla’s charging setup is easy to use (a Model 3 is shown), and its navigation system does a good job helping drivers find a place to plug in on the road.
Photo: John Powers/Consumer Reports
On our vehicle model pages, we also indicate each vehicle’s charging speed for a variety of chargers. A car might be capable of super-fast charging, but if you don’t have access to a 350-kilowatt charger, we can also tell you the charging speed you will get at slower and more common chargers.
“The size of the charger or how quickly a battery goes from 20 percent to 80 percent charged is only part of the equation,” Knizek says. “How quickly you can add miles is what matters most.” The top-scoring vehicles are those that charge quickly but are also very efficient.
Our charging scores also take into account how easy an EV is to plug in and unplug, and whether it comes with any built-in features, such as navigation, that make charging easier.
“You’re probably interacting with the charge port a lot more often than you would fill up a gas car,” Fisher says.
For example, Rivians have plugs that are low to the ground and feature a hidden switch, while Teslas are much easier to plug in with just one hand. Tesla and Rivian both shine with full-featured smartphone apps and navigation routing designed to minimize time spent finding chargers and plugging in.
As part of an EV’s transmission score, we score the ease of one-pedal driving, which allows the driver to speed up or slow down by using only the accelerator pedal. For EV road-test scores, we also gave our acceleration test results less weight because most EVs offer blazing-fast acceleration that’s impractical for public roads. “Not everyone will take their EV to a drag strip, but everyone plugs it in,” Fisher says.
Editor’s Note: This article was updated on June 3, 2025 to add new vehicle data.
China extends an olive branch to Western auto giants over rare earth shortage
Published Mon, Jun 9 20253:02 AM EDTUpdated 5 Hours Ago
Sam Meredith@in/samuelmeredith@smeredith19
Key Points
- China appears to have offered U.S. and European auto giants something of a reprieve over a rare earth shortage.
- China’s Ministry of Commerce on Saturday said it was willing to establish a “green channel” for eligible rare earth export license applications to expedite the approval process to EU firms.
- Maximilian Butek, an executive director and board member of the German Chamber of Commerce in China, said the development is certainly good news for European businesses.
China appears to have offered U.S. and European auto giants something of a reprieve after industry groups warned of increasing production threats over a rare earth shortage.
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Saturday said it was willing to establish a so-called “green channel” for eligible export license applications to expedite the approval process to European Union firms.
A Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said Wang expressed hope that the EU would take “reciprocal steps” and adopt measures to promote compliant trade of high-tech products with China.
The breakthrough comes after trade talks between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic met in Paris, France last week.
Beijing also granted rare earth licenses to suppliers of U.S. auto giants General Motors, Ford and Jeep-maker Stellantis, Reuters reported on Friday, citing unnamed sources. The report said China’s Ministry of Commerce did not respond to a faxed request for comment. CNBC has contacted GM and Ford.
Stellantis said it is closely monitoring the situation and “working with suppliers and institutions to ensure an efficient licensing process.”
The company, which owns household names including Dodge, Fiat, Chrysler and Peugeot, said it has been able to address “immediate production concerns without major interruptions.”
China’s Ministry of Commerce in early April imposed export restrictions on several rare earth elements and magnets widely used in the automotive, defense and energy sectors. The curbs were part of a response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff increase on Beijing’s products.
Some of the affected rare earth elements were critical components to the production of both combustion engines and electric vehicles.
Maximilian Butek, an executive director and board member of the German Chamber of Commerce in China, said the weekend announcement was certainly good news for European businesses, but noted that it remains unclear whether the fast-track channel applies to large-scale firms or to sectors more broadly.
“It is a huge bureaucratic monster that they’ve created and I’m not sure if they really can now speed up the process and give the licenses to those who need them,” Butek told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Monday.
Europe’s top automakers will welcome the diplomatic breakthrough, Butek said, while stressing the European bloc’s need to improve supply chain diversification.
“It all hit us quite by surprise that China is even willing to draw this card because this is a retaliation measurement towards the tariffs the U.S. implemented, right? And we, as European companies, we are now in the crossfire of this trade escalation, and this is really not where we want to be,” Butek said.
“It is not enough just to announce it but they have to show it,” he added.
China’s critical mineral dominance
China is the undisputed leader of the critical minerals supply chain, accounting for roughly 60% of the world’s production of rare earth minerals and materials. U.S. officials have previously warned that this dominance poses a strategic challenge amid the pivot to more sustainable energy sources.
Some analysts have compared the industry-wide squeeze on supplies of rare earth magnets to the global semiconductor crisis that disrupted automotive production during the coronavirus pandemic.
Speaking to CNBC before China announced plans to expedite the approval process of rare earth exports to the EU, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) said some of its members were at risk of production outages starting as soon as next month.
The car lobby group, which represents the likes of Stellantis, Renault, Ferrari, Volkswagen and Volvo, said rare earth export licenses by China’s Ministry of Commerce had been taking a “significant” amount of time to process since the April restrictions came into force.
“Generally, global stocks of these magnets are quite low. And, given that China is the bulk global supplier, it has meant that, in the absence of these export licenses, those stocks have been depleting progressively since the start of April,” Jonathan O’Riordan, international trade director at ACEA, told CNBC by phone.
“We’re gradually coming into a very, very critical moment whereby those stocks are now being exhausted, and we are potentially going to see production stoppages,” he added.
ACEA’s warning followed a separate ominous update from the European Association of Automotive Suppliers.
Last week, the group said that several auto supplier plants and production lines had already been shut down due to Beijing’s recent export restrictions, with further outages expected as rare earth inventories deplete over the coming weeks.
Japanese automaker Suzuki Motor, however, suspended production of its Swift car due to China’s rare earth curbs, Reuters reported Thursday, citing two unnamed sources. A Suzuki Motor spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment when contacted by CNBC.
Demand for rare earths and critical minerals is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years as the clean energy transition picks up pace.
Inflation fears receded in May as Trump eased some tariff threats, New York Fed survey shows
Published Mon, Jun 9 202511:00 AM EDTUpdated 2 Hours Ago
Jeff Cox@jeff.cox.7528@JeffCoxCNBCcom
Key Points
- The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed the one-year inflation outlook took a substantial dip in May, down to 3.2% — a 0.4 percentage point decrease from April.
- While the survey showed inflation expectations are still above the Fed’s 2% annual target, they represent progress and a change in a fearful attitude that coincided with Trump’s saber-rattling.
Americans grew less fearful about inflation in May as President Donald Trump backed off the most severe of his tariff proposals, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey Monday.
The central bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that the one-year inflation outlook took a substantial dip, down to 3.2% — a 0.4 percentage point decrease from April.
At the three-year horizon, the outlook fell 0.2 percentage point to 3%, while the five-year forecast edged down to 2.6% from 2.7%.
While all three are still above the Fed’s 2% annual target, they represent progress and a change in a fearful attitude that coincided with Trump’s saber-rattling on tariffs, culminating with the April 2 “liberation day” announcement.
Trump initially slapped universal 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports and a menu of so-called reciprocal duties on dozens of nations. However, he soon backed off the latter measures, opting for a 90-day negotiating window that expires in July.
The New York Fed survey, which is less volatile than others such as the University of Michigan and Conference Board measures, provides some good news for the White House at a time when administration officials are trying to tamp down worries about tariff-induced inflation.
“By every measure of inflation, it’s down by more than it’s been in more than four years,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Monday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “While the tariff revenue has been going up, inflation has been coming down, which is contrary to the story that everybody else has been saying, but very consistent with what we’ve been saying.”
Inflation as measured by the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index was at 2.1% in April, matching the lowest it’s been since February 2021. Excluding food and energy, core PCE stood at 2.5%, a gauge Fed officials believe is a better measure of longer-term trends.
The Fed survey showed expectations dipping across most price groups, though respondents did see food prices rising by 5.5% over the next year, a 0.4 percentage point increase from May and the most since October 2023. Elsewhere, respondents saw gas price increases easing to 2.7%, down 0.8 percentage point. The outlooks for medical care, college education and rent increases also were lower on a monthly basis.
There also was a positive move in employment, with those expecting to lose their job over the next 12 months dipping to 14.8%, down half a percentage point.
Other areas showed optimism as well: The probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell half a point to 13.4%, its lowest since January. Respondents also had more confidence in stocks, with 36.3% expecting the market to be higher a year from now, up 0.6 percentage point.
Why the stock market continues to hold up in the face of uncertain trade policy
Published Mon, Jun 2 20257:25 AM EDT
Michael Santoli@michaelsantoli
It’s only fair to give the stock market credit for hanging tough through the 2025 uncertainty storm.
But it means the market is now taking credit in advance for a clearer and more favorable policy and economic picture developing from here.
What does hanging tough look like? The S&P 500 index fought its way back to about flat after one of its worst-ever starts to a year through the first week of April.
The index has also been hanging around the same patch of the field, spending all of the past two weeks and much of the last seven months in the range travelled on a single day, Nov. 6, 2024. The lines on the chart span the distance traveled in that initial one-session rally after Election Day.
Since then, two quarters of much better than expected aggregate earnings have entered the books, offset by a confidence crash following the maximalist tariff proposals of April 2 and the abiding limbo state of the various overlapping pauses, deadlines and threats.
Evidence that the market is implicitly assuming a fair degree of trade-war de-escalation could be seen in the market’s relatively modest response both to President Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff on imports from the EU just over a week ago, as well as its muted celebration when that measure was paused — or when a trade court ruled most of the global tariffs appear unlawful.
Friday’s flutter of reports about stalled talks with China and the countries’ mutual accusations of bad faith drew a shrug from the tape, the S&P finishing flat to preserve a 1.9% weekly gain.
Bespoke Investment Group on Friday reported that while the S&P 500 badly underperformed in March and April on days when trade headlines dominated the news, in May the market has largely ignored them.
The reams of Wall Street strategy work attempting to handicap the trade-policy outcomes is coalescing around the 10% global baseline duties plus something higher for China and some targeted sectors, resulting in a blended rate somewhere above 15%.
That’s a level of transactional friction in the global economy that is multiples higher than long-prevailing rates, yet less decisively scary than the punitive plan that crashed the market and created the early-April buying opportunity, at the moment of peak uncertainty.
Why the stock market is holding near record
Among the reasons stocks have held within a few percent of record highs as it digested the huge relief rally the past couple of weeks is the here-and-now economic readings have mostly been reassuring:
- Upward leakage in continuing unemployment claims but no spike in layoffs.
- Generally steady if uninspiring consumer activity, with mostly benign inflation data.
- A badly stuck housing market, but no more so than a few months ago.
- Calm restored in the Treasury market, yields settling back slightly to quiet the overexcited talk about fiscal fissures.
All of the numbers carry a bold-faced asterisk for being either not fully reflective of tariff effects or helped temporarily by some pull-forward of demand to get ahead of tariffs.
Here again, the market is supported by steady fundamentals, while also by extension pricing in an expectation that they will persist. Corporate-credit spreads have mostly round-tripped back to unconcerning levels, non-U.S. stocks are in solid uptrends and the industrial sector has returned to its former highs. Not a market clenched in anticipation of a significant air pocket in growth.
It’s hard to ignore the other tailwind for the tape, the reassertion of the mega-cap growth cohort as relative leaders. Here’s the Magnificent Seven relative to the equal-weighted S&P 500. Back to the July 2024 crest, not quite up to the fourth-quarter exuberance peak.
Someone in the business of diagramming head-and-shoulders topping patterns might have something to offer here, but for now it’s enough to say the market has again turned to the giants for support in a time of need.
While the scolds who think index progress should come from the many over the few will lament this shift, the reality is the brute force of superior profit growth among the dominant digital platform companies is hard to resist.
Mag 7, tech bid
With Nvidia completing the reporting period for the megas, FactSet shows the group notched a 27% earnings jump from the year earlier, 11 percentage points head of forecasts, with the remainder of the S&P 500 growing a third as quickly.
Even within the Mag7, it’s not the cleanest story. FactSet notes that consensus is projecting annual profit-growth rates will step down toward 10% over the next few quarters. I’ve pointed out here recently that the biggest earners, such as Microsoft and Alphabet, are spending so heavily on AI capacity that free-cash-flow growth is on hiatus this year.
And the share-price action is somewhat spotty, too. Apple is a conspicuous laggard, the stock on the verge of breaking down below a former peak from almost two years ago.
Nvidia, meantime, has lost its post-earnings pop, the stock back to where it closed Wednesday just before what was taken as reassuring forward guidance.
Alphabet has been kept in the penalty box, its valuation now at a significant discount to the broad market, as investors fear what AI might do to its core profit stream from search.
Tesla has always been an uncomfortable fit in the Mag7, there only because of its massive market value and intermittent fits of headlong stock momentum. It does not have massive profitability derived from an pervasive asset-light network platform. Its earnings are set to be lower today than three years ago and forecasts have been slashed for this year and next.
But the stock is useful as a gauge of investors’ collective willingness to believe in Elon Musk’s promised version of the future. Well more than half of its $1.1 trillion in market capitalization is attributable not to the auto and energy-storage business that produce all Tesla revenue, but to the perpetually “almost there” robotaxi and humanoid-robot ventures that get the faithful excited.
While the market credits Tesla today with hundreds of billions in value for such unproven gambits, Alphabet’s $2 trillion market cap reflects very little credit for the more-advanced Waymo robotaxi division.
The market likes a pure play and a good storyteller, not to say meme-spinner.
For now, this current of lavishly capitalized belief is running only through narrow channels of the market, into Tesla and Palantir and CoreWeave, with tributaries into long-shot quantum-computing names with such lengthy timelines for judging success that traders choose not even to worry about it.
This revival of the “transformative tech” bid — along with the resilience of hard macro data and glass-half-full take on how tariffs will interact with the economy — helps account for the tape’s ability to hold up during this in-between phase for trade policy and with the Federal Reserve resolutely in wait-and-see mode.
It means that two months after universal panic over maximum uncertainty created a “Close your eyes and buy” moment, it’s now time to hold while keeping eyes wide open for how reality takes shape relative to fairly benign expectations.
Waves of Strikes and Protests Sweep Across China Amid Growing Economic Strain
Protests by workers and citizens are spreading across China, exposing rising social unrest and deepening cracks in the country’s economy.
Employees across multiple sectors in China launched dozens of protests in April and early May, demanding unpaid wages and benefits. Tens of thousands of people said they have gone months without full pay. Screenshot via The Epoch Times/Courtesy of yesterdayprotests.com
By Olivia Li
6/4/2025Updated:6/4/2025
Since late May, a wave of strikes and protests has erupted across China, highlighting growing tensions between workers and employers, homebuyers and irresponsible developers, as well as mounting public frustration amid a deepening economic slowdown.
One of the high-profile incidents involves a multi-day strike at a Yunda Express distribution center in Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province in southwest China.
On May 30, hundreds of workers at the facility walked off the job to protest the company’s decision to relocate the center to Ziyang city—more than 62 miles away—without offering relocation compensation. Striking employees blocked entry and exit points to halt vehicle traffic.
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Police intervened on June 2 to break up the protest, with social media reports saying that some workers were physically assaulted during the clampdown.
Workers said in videos and posts circulating on Chinese social media platforms such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu (RedNote) that the new site is not only poorly equipped, but also far from urban areas. As a result, drivers face long wait times for shipments, pushing up costs and prompting many to quit.
Workers have accused the company of violating China’s Labor Contract Law by denying relocation compensation and reasonable resettlement arrangements in line with China’s labor laws.
A female employee taking part in the strike told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times, “Worker representatives are trying to negotiate, but the company is simply ignoring … demands.”
A staff member at the distribution center declined to be interviewed when contacted by The Epoch Times, saying only that “negotiations are still ongoing” before hanging up.
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On the same day as the Chengdu courier strike, workers at Ligao Lighting Co. in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, staged a walkout amid rumors that company executives had fled. Employees told The Epoch Times that the company abruptly announced a 15-day shutdown without compensation, fueling fears of wage arrears.
The Epoch Times’ repeated calls to the company went unanswered.
In Zhangjiagang, in eastern China’s Jiangsu Province, workers at POSCO Stainless Steel Co. continued striking over unpaid wages. Employees told The Epoch Times that one department had not received salaries for several months, plunging families into financial hardship. Others noted that the company was recently sold to China’s Tsingshan Holding Group, which has caused management chaos and growing uncertainty in the workforce.
Public Anger Rises Over Stalled Projects, Forced Demolitions
In several provinces, some homeowners and small business owners also staged protests targeting local governments, reflecting widespread frustration and a growing lack of confidence in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
On May 31, more than 100 homeowners from the stalled Heda Xingfu housing project in Qingdao, Shandong Province, blocked China National Highway 204 and stormed the construction site, demanding action. Police forcibly dispersed the protesters. Video footage shows several people being dragged away, with some women breaking down in tears at the scene.
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Homeowners said construction has been suspended for an extended period and that both the developer and local authorities have failed to respond to concerns about project delivery.
Under China’s presale system, homebuyers make down payments and begin mortgage payments on homes that are still under construction. If a project is delayed or abandoned, buyers remain financially obligated—losing both their money and the promised property.
In Xianyang, in northern China’s Shaanxi Province, homeowners of the stalled Chenyue project gathered at a local petition office to protest the halted construction and accused the government of misusing project funds. Several protesters were reportedly detained by police.
In the northeastern coastal city of Dalian, Liaoning Province, about 100 guesthouse operators staged a demonstration against the government’s forced demolition of their properties. One protester said in a video: “We came here in response to the government’s investment drive. Now, we’re being kicked out with nothing.”
Expert: Cost-Cutting and Weak Oversight Driving Unrest
Independent labor researcher Yue Ming (who used a pseudonym out of fear of retaliation) told The Epoch Times that the surge in labor disputes stems from long-standing structural issues: Many companies ignore legal obligations in their cost-cutting efforts, while local governments fail to provide proper oversight.
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“When businesses face financial pressure, they’re still legally required to protect workers’ rights,” he said. “However, local officials often side with employers and suppress workers’ demands. That’s not stabilizing society—it’s turning it into a pressure cooker.”
While much of the original protest footage shared on platforms such as Douyin and WeChat has been censored or restricted, some overseas YouTube and X accounts—including “YesterdayProtests”—have reposted videos and images, preserving public access to the material.
A rights advocate surnamed Li from Linyi in Shandong Province told The Epoch Times that many companies are in survival mode. His wife works at a publicly listed company that was sold in 2024; now, she alternates between working one day and resting the next. Li’s son, who works polishing semiconductor components in a chip factory in Anhui, is overworked and underpaid.
“The hours are long; the pay is poor,“ he said. ”It’s just enough to scrape by.”
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A resident of Taixing, Jiangsu Province, surnamed Liu, said: “Factory closures and unpaid wages have become the norm. The government and the unions do nothing.”
Since 2008, the CCP has classified statistics on mass incidents as a state secret, and no official statistics are publicly available. However, the growing volume of protest-related videos posted online—many involving unpaid wages or forced demolitions—suggests that social unrest is intensifying.
In an interview with The Epoch Times, Liu Hong (who used a pseudonym out of fear of retaliation), who runs a grassroots nongovernmental organization in Beijing, said the government is clamping down on protests rather than addressing the root causes.
“They target those who stand up for their rights, while lawbreaking companies go unpunished,” he said. “That’s not maintaining social order—it’s forcing society toward the brink.”
The Epoch Times made repeated attempts to contact the companies and local government offices involved, but none responded.
Shen Yue contributed to this report.
Trump bans citizens of 12 countries from entering the U.S.
Published Wed, Jun 4 202511:29 PM EDTUpdated Thu, Jun 5 20258:38 AM EDT
Monica Pitrelli@MonicaPitrelli
Key Points
- The proclamation applies to citizens of Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
- Citizens of Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela are subject to partial restrictions.
- The ban is set to begin Monday.
Pres. Trump announces travel ban, signs proclamation restricting foreign student visas at Harvard
The Trump administration signed a proclamation Wednesday suspending travel to the U.S. for citizens from 12 countries: Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
Citing national security interests, the proclamation states that the identified countries lack sufficient vetting and screening processes needed to detect foreign nationals who may pose safety or terrorism threats to the U.S.
The proclamation also partially restricted entrance for nationals of seven other countries: Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela.
Other considerations include a country’s information-sharing policies, presence of terrorists, visa overstay rates and whether citizens who are sent back are readily accepted, it said.
The ban is set to take effect on Monday at 12:01 a.m. ET.
In a video released by the White House on Wednesday night, Trump said that on his first day in office, he directed the secretary of State to perform a security review of “high-risk regions” to make travel restriction recommendations.
He also cited the Sunday attack on Jewish protestors in Boulder, Colorado, in the video. The man charged in the assault, Mohamed Sabry Soliman, is an Egyptian national. Egypt is not named in the new travel ban.
The policy mirrors a similar travel ban announced in January 2017, one week into Trump’s first term, which banned travel from seven Muslim-majority countries. That policy, while largely criticized, was ultimately upheld by the Supreme Court in 2018.
That ban was later ended by President Joe Biden in 2021.
Democratic lawmakers took to social media to voice opposition to the latest ban. They include Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., who posted on X: “Make no mistake: Trump’s latest travel ban will NOT make America safer. We cannot continue to allow the Trump administration to write bigotry and hatred into U.S. immigration policy.”
The new policy applies to foreigners from the named countries who are outside of the United States and who lack visas to enter as of Monday, June 9.
Certain travelers are excepted from the rule, it states, including U.S. permanent residents, athletes traveling to attend major sporting events, and immediate family members with “clear and convincing evidence of identity and family relationship,” citing DNA as an example.
The salary a single person needs to live comfortably in all 50 U.S. states—it’s over $120,000 in 2 places
Published Sat, Jun 7 20259:00 AM EDT
Kamaron McNair@in/kamaronmcnair/@kamaronmcnair
Americans earning a regular salary may have trouble living comfortably in all 50 states.
The median annual wage for individuals was just below $62,000 at the end of 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But it takes a salary of at least $80,829 for a single adult to live comfortably in West Virginia, the most affordable state, according to a recent SmartAsset study.
SmartAsset defines “comfortable” as earning enough to follow the 50/30/20 budget method, which recommends putting 50% of your income toward essentials like rent and food, 30% toward discretionary spending and 20% toward debt repayment and savings. It used the latest estimates from Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Living Wage calculator to estimate individuals’ cost of necessities in each state.
On the other side of the spectrum from West Virginia, residents in Hawaii need to earn a minimum of $124,467 a year to live comfortably, SmartAsset finds. That’s the highest of any state and one of two states — along with Massachusetts — where individuals need to earn at least $120,000 a year to afford a comfortable lifestyle.
Here’s how much money it takes for a single adult to live comfortably in every U.S. state 2025.
Alabama
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $85,280
- Change from 2024: 1.74%
Alaska
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $100,298
- Change from 2024: 3.65%
Arizona
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $101,587
- Change from 2024: 4.36%
Arkansas
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $81,078
- Change from 2024: 2.04%
California
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $119,475
- Change from 2024: 5.12%
Colorado
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $105,955
- Change from 2024: 2.58%
Connecticut
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $105,165
- Change from 2024: 4.77%
Delaware
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $97,469
- Change from 2024: 3.54%
Florida
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $97,386
- Change from 2024: 4.37%
Georgia
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $99,590
- Change from 2024: 2.79%
Hawaii
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $124,467
- Change from 2024: 9.48%
Idaho
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $96,429
- Change from 2024: 8.67%
Illinois
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $98,010
- Change from 2024: 3.06%
Indiana
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $86,570
- Change from 2024: 1.81%
Iowa
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $86,902
- Change from 2024: 4.24%
Kansas
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $87,610
- Change from 2024: 3.49%
Kentucky
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $83,574
- Change from 2024: 3.56%
Louisiana
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $85,322
- Change from 2024: 3.48%
Maine
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $96,595
- Change from 2024: 5.35%
Maryland
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $108,867
- Change from 2024: 5.78%
Massachusetts
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $120,141
- Change from 2024: 3.55%
Michigan
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $87,235
- Change from 2024: 3.40%
Minnesota
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $91,728
- Change from 2024: 2.80%
Mississippi
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $86,320
- Change from 2024: 4.32%
Missouri
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $86,819
- Change from 2024: 3.32%
Montana
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $92,851
- Change from 2024: 9.57%
Nebraska
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $87,318
- Change from 2024: 4.32%
Nevada
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $99,216
- Change from 2024: 6.19%
New Hampshire
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $103,085
- Change from 2024: 5.09%
New Jersey
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $108,992
- Change from 2024: 5.82%
New Mexico
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $87,402
- Change from 2024: 4.53%
New York
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $114,691
- Change from 2024: 2.64%
North Carolina
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $93,766
- Change from 2024: 4.55%
North Dakota
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $82,285
- Change from 2024: 2.17%
Ohio
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $84,781
- Change from 2024: 5.05%
Oklahoma
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $84,282
- Change from 2024: 4.81%
Oregon
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $104,666
- Change from 2024: 3.54%
Pennsylvania
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $95,306
- Change from 2024: 4.37%
Rhode Island
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $101,338
- Change from 2024: 0.50%
South Carolina
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $92,144
- Change from 2024: 4.33%
South Dakota
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $82,160
- Change from 2024: 0.87%
Tennessee
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $91,478
- Change from 2024: 5.87%
Texas
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $90,771
- Change from 2024: 4.30%
Utah
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $99,466
- Change from 2024: 6.17%
Vermont
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $99,632
- Change from 2024: 4.04%
Virginia
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $106,704
- Change from 2024: 6.74%
Washington
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $109,658
- Change from 2024: 2.97%
West Virginia
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $80,829
- Change from 2024: 2.59%
Wisconsin
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $87,194
- Change from 2024: 3.66%
Wyoming
- Income needed for a single adult, 2025: $87,942
- Change from 2024: 0.33%
While the 50/30/20 budget can be an effective tool to manage your money, it can also be difficult to follow if you have high fixed costs. And though data suggests wage growth nationwide is actually outpacing price inflation, many Americans don’t feel that way.
About 7 in 10 Americans feel stressed about their finances, according to a CNBC/SurveyMonkey online poll conducted in April. Plus, President Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten to push prices up even further.
Boosting your income by switching jobs or getting a side hustle may be easier said than done, but it can help give you some breathing room in your budget, especially if you’ve already cut out as much discretionary spending as you can.
Are you ready to buy a house? Take Smarter by CNBC Make It’s new online course How to Buy Your First Home. Expert instructors will help you weigh the cost of renting vs. buying, financially prepare, and confidently navigate every step of the process—from mortgage basics to closing the deal. Sign up today and use coupon code EARLYBIRD for an introductory discount of 30% off $97 (+taxes and fees) through July 15, 2025.
Plus, sign up for CNBC Make It’s newsletter to get tips and tricks for success at work, with money and in life, and request to join our exclusive community on LinkedIn to connect with experts and peers.
