HI Market View Commentary 04-21-2025
Where are all the level heads at right now? I CAN’T FIND THEM ANYWHERE
This is out of control and looks really bad for the foreseeable future.= Market SENTIMENT
There are SO Many opportunities but we have NO idea when anything can come back.
I’m ticked off – But here’s what I feel inside = frustrated, I knew it would happen, I’m slightly excited, IF we have 75 countries coming to table why hasn’t there been any progress or announcements of trade deals
My frustration – Billions weather the storms really easy,
We started protecting on the one up day last week
ANSWERING QUESTIONS
Learnings = Options Expiration
Options expire?= Fridays
Option are exercised by what price?= Closing price on Friday
BUT = market trade after hours most brokerage close 8PM EST
That final 8PM price that is used Saturday to “settle” options
Where is the bottom?=4821 S&P
Why haven’t you ……. Added SPY Puts, Why haven’t you sprinkled more in, why haven’t moved some positions to cash?
I’m a Registered Investment Advisor = You Always have input on your money
When are you going to add more shares/take profits? = 4800 S&P 500 and then I will reset everything again
It’s not a percentage return or certain profit = IS to protect stock ownership
Explain no guidance but re-affirming yearly guidance?
Tesla? Earnings should suck and it will probably go down even more
WHAT YOU’RE NOT HEARING: The Chinese cannot replace the U.S. market. Without it, the Chinese economy collapses.
Here’s why… China’s entire economic miracle was built on ONE thing – being America’s cheap manufacturing hub.
The “Chinese miracle” playbook was simple:
• Open markets to the West
• Offer dirt-cheap labor
• Ignore safety standards
• Let Western companies rake in profits
This worked for decades. But China forgot something crucial: others can do this too.
MASSIVE MISCALCULATION: Beijing thought the American leaders they made rich would protect them forever. They believed these corporate puppet masters would never let the US stand up to China.
WRONG. Along came Donald Trump, who owes them nothing.
The numbers don’t lie
• US exports to China: $143.5B
• Chinese imports to US: $438.9B
They flood our markets while closing or restricting THEIR markets.
But Trump said: NO MORE
Meanwhile, countries like India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are CELEBRATING. They’re ready to take China’s place, AND open their markets to the U.S. – and Trump’s willing to deal.
HERE’S what the Enemedia WON’T tell you:
Chinese exporters are PANICKING
• Abandoning shipments mid-voyage
• Factory orders FROZEN
• Container volume DOWN 90%
And this is just the beginning. China can’t replace the U.S. market that made it rich.
Reports flooding in:
• Factories shutting down
• Amazon canceling orders
• Stores closing
• Warehouses overflowing
The house of cards is falling. But the Enemedia gives you nothing but Chinese propaganda.
CRUCIAL FACT: America buys 3X more than Japan (China’s next biggest customer).
Without us, they’re FINISHED. And they were already on the ropes.
Will this affect US consumers? Sure, briefly. You might struggle to find cheap plastic junk for a few months.
But other countries will step up. And TRILLIONS in new investment are flowing into America, while countless factories LEAVE China.
Will this affect US consumers? Sure, briefly. You might struggle to find cheap plastic junk for a few months.
The bottom line: China picked a fight they can’t win. While America adjusts, the CCP will face the consequences of their refusal to truly open their own markets, or to abandon aggression against their neighbors.
Game over. The decoupling is under way.
Rod Martin,
Founder and CEO Martin Capital
Earnings
AAPL 05/01 AMC
BA 04/23 BMO
BIDU 05/15 est
DIS 05/07 BMO
F 05/05 AMC
GE 04/22 BMO
GOOGL 04/29 AMC
LMT 04/22 BMO
META 04/30 AMC
MU 06/25 est
NVDA 05/28 est
TGT 05/21 BMO
UAA 05/15 BMO
V 04/29 AMC
VZ 04/22 BMO
WMT 05/15 BMO
XYZ 05/02 AMC
https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture
The Big Picture
Last Updated: 17-Apr-25 15:39 ET | Archive
Waiting for economic answers to tariff uncertainty will be hard
Column Summary:
*Tariff actions shocked markets, creating deep uncertainty about economic outcomes.
*The year-to-date performance of the major indices and key market sectors reflects the market’s growth concerns.
*Economic data in coming months will reveal the true cost and impact of the tariffs and lend certainty to a highly uncertain situation.
The Trump administration’s tariff actions caused a shock to the market’s system, not so much in how the market functions but in how it thinks. Specifically, it left the market questioning, well, just about everything.
What will happen to our geopolitical alliances? What will happen to the economy? What will happen to inflation? What will the Fed do? What will happen to earnings?
We will find out the answers in due time, but waiting may just be the hardest thing for this market to do.
Bear Market Avoided
The S&P 500 had an all-time closing high of 6,144.15 on February 19. Less than two months later, it was trading below 5,000 and threatening to enter a bear market, which is generally defined as a 20%+ drop on a closing basis from a prior closing high.
The S&P 500 avoided that technical fate with a close of 4,982.77 (-18.9%) on April 8. It had declined as much as 21.3% at its intraday low of 4,835.04 on April 7, but it bounced back and closed that session at 5,062.25.
There has been some chatter that the S&P 500 is apt to retest that low at some point and that market participants will be looking for confirmation on whether that is the low based on how it responds to the retest. Again, time will tell if we get there, but we would argue that, if we do, it will be the economic data that takes us there and not tariff news.
What Is the Cost?
The shock to the market was precipitated by the announcement of some onerous reciprocal tariff rates for most countries and the implementation of a draconian 145% tariff rate on goods imported from China. The latter prompted China to implement a 125% tariff rate on goods imported from the U.S. and to declare that it will ignore any further tariff actions by the U.S.
There is certainly a lot to unpack in any negotiations that might come to fruition with China, but negotiations have started with other countries with an eye on getting better trade terms for the U.S. than existed before. There is some positivity in that thought, but a global baseline tariff rate of 10%, and anything above that, will not be without its costs.
The question is, just how costly will it be? The answer will be in the economic data that arrives in the coming months.
We know there has been a frontrunning of tariffs with the pickup in imports, which will be a drag on Q1 GDP, yet there could be payback lurking on both sides of the trade ledger in coming months, with declines in imports and exports, as the impact of the tariffs takes root in supply chains, freight costs, and the psyche of consumers around the globe dealing with related price adjustments.
The market has reserved some optimism for trade deals getting struck, but it hasn’t excused the thought that the messiness of the U.S. restructuring global trade could result in an economic dislocation that manifests itself in a range of economic outcomes that include stagflation, recession, or below-potential growth.
To be sure, there isn’t a prevailing view in the market that the economy, in the near term, is going to flourish as a result of the tariff actions. The administration is confident that will be the case over the long run, yet it is plain to see in return statistics that there has been a shock to the market’s growth outlook.
| YTD | |
| Philadelphia Semiconductor Index | -22.6% |
| S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector | -19.3% |
| S&P 500 Information Technology Sector | -17.8% |
| Russell 2000 | -15.6% |
| Nasdaq Composite | -15.1% |
| S&P Midcap 400 | -11.6% |
| S&P 500 | -9.5% |
| U.S. Dollar Index | -8.2% |
| S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector | +6.2% |
| S&P 500 Utilities Sector | +3.9% |
Source: FactSet
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The good news is that the tariff announcement shock is over. A budding sense has emerged that the tariff headlines will have more positive connotations than negative connotations now that the negotiations have started. The market got this sense of things on April 9 when President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, China excluded, that showed a willingness to negotiate better trade terms for the U.S.
That announcement launched an epic rally that culminated with the S&P 500 logging its third-largest gain in a single day since World War II. It was the pause that refreshed and removed the abject fear that had been building in the stock and bond markets and that was evident in the CBOE Volatility Index.
Still, it wasn’t a race back to the old highs for the market. A lot of psychological damage had been done, and the market is savvy enough to know that the tariff actions will be a headwind for the economy and earnings growth. It just doesn’t know how strong that headwind will be.
The economic data in the coming months will shed some light on that uncertainty, and here the prevailing expectation is that it will have more negative connotations than positive connotations. That is an objective view of the situation based on the return statistics seen above.
That could change with positive developments on the tariff negotiation front that are accompanied by some better-than-feared economic news. The market, though, isn’t going to have the economic answers it is seeking for some time.
It is going to have to wait, and that wait will be hard. Consequently, its trading form will be erratic as participants digest the data and begin to attach some certainty to what is currently a highly uncertain situation.
—Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com
Where will our markets end this week?
Lower
DJIA – Bearish
SPX – Bearish
COMP – Bearish
Where Will the SPX end April 2025?
04-21-2025 -4.0%
04-14-2025 -4.0%
04-07-2025 -4.0%
03-31-2025 -4.0%
Earnings:
Mon: ZION,
Tues: PHM, VMI, ISRG, TSLA, GE, HAL, LMT, VZ, CB
Wed: T, PM, ALK, CMG, DFS, IBM, LVS, NEM, WU, BA, GEV,
Thur: AAL, BMY, FCX, HAS, PEP, LUV, VLO, SAM, INTC, SKYW, TMUS, GOOGL
Fri:
Econ Reports:
Mon: Leading Indicators
Tue
Wed: MBA, New Home Sales, Feb Beige Book
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Durable Goods, Durable Ex-trans, Existing Home Sales,
Fri: Michigan Sentiment
How am I looking to trade?
Protection in place last week for earnings coming up, full collar trades on some positions
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
info@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
Questions???
META is the affected Mag7 Stock from both tariffs and trade wars
Are you going to full collar trades = Long Put, Short Call
Warren Buffett on extreme behavior in markets: It’s very good for people who keep their heads
Published Sun, Apr 20 20258:17 AM EDT
Warren Buffett’s advice for investors in times of violent volatility rings especially true today: Keep your cool, and you will be rewarded in the long run.
The Oracle of Omaha once offered his view on the dramatic market rout in 1974, driven by rising inflation, an oil crisis and political instability surrounding the Watergate scandal. At the end of 1974, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was more than cut in half, down 52% from its 1972 peak, as stocks tumbled into a vicious bear market.
“The country didn’t disappear or anything. It’s just people behave in extreme ways in markets. And over time, that’s very good for people that keep their heads,” Buffett said at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting in 1997.
The current market turmoil was triggered by President Donald Trump’s rollout, and subsequent suspension, of the highest tariffs on imports in generations. The blue-chip Dow suffered back-to-back 1,500 point losses for the first time since the average was first calculated in 1896. Earlier this month, the S&P 500 briefly tumbled into a bear market — down more than 20% from its February record high — before rebounding a little.
The 94-year-old investor could reveal his market outlook at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting in two weeks. If history is any guide, the Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO, who views his stock holdings as small pieces of entire businesses, could reveal he’s taken advantage of depressed prices to hunt for bargains.
“The stock market is there to serve you, and not to instruct you. And that’s a key to owning a good business, and getting rid of the risk that would otherwise exist in the market,” he said in 1997.
Buffett has ample cash to deploy, with the Omaha-based conglomerate’s cash level exploding to $334 billion at the end of 2024 — a record high — and accountting for about 30% of total assets. Over the past year, Buffett turned aggressively defensive, peeling back his two biggest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.
“It doesn’t make any difference to us whether the volatility of the stock market averages a half a percent a day or a quarter percent a day or 5% a day. In fact, we’d make a lot more money if volatility was higher, because it would create more mistakes in the market,” Buffett said.
Trump ramps up attacks on Powell, demands ‘loser’ Fed chair lower rates ‘NOW’
Published Mon, Apr 21 20259:46 AM EDTUpdated 42 Min Ago
Kevin Breuninger@KevinWilliamB
Key Points
- President Donald Trump ratcheted up his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
- Trump on Truth Social called Powell a “major loser” and warned that the U.S. economy could slow down unless interest rates fall immediately.
- Trump and his team are studying whether they can legally fire the central bank leader before his term is set to expire.
President Donald Trump on Monday ratcheted up his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a “major loser” and warning that the U.S. economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately.
″‘Preemptive Cuts’ in Interest Rates are being called for by many,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump claimed that there is currently “virtually No Inflation” in the U.S., and that costs for energy and “most other ‘things’” are on the decline.
“With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,” Trump wrote.
Trump’s latest salvo against Powell — whom he appointed during his first administration — came as the president and his team are studying whether they can legally fire the central bank leader before his term expires in May 2026.
Powell has flatly stated that the president cannot remove him under the law.
Any attempt by Trump to fire Powell would likely trigger a steep sell off in U.S. equity markets, Evercore ISI Vice President Krishna Guha told CNBC on Monday.
“If you start to raise questions about Federal Reserve independence, you are raising the bar for the Federal Reserve to cut. If you actually did try to remove the Federal Reserve chairman, I think you would see a severe reaction in markets with yields higher, dollars lower and equities selling off,” Guha said on “Squawk Box.”
“I can’t believe that that’s what the administration is trying to achieve,” Guha said.
Market has signaled it doesn’t like the idea of Trump firing Fed Chair Powell: Evercore ISI’s Guha
The stock market, already reeling from heightened uncertainty and other concerns stemming from the Trump administration’s sweeping tariff plans, sank further Monday morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 750 points, a nearly 2% drop, within the first hour of trading, while the Nasdaq fell 2.6%.
The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, fell to its lowest level since 2022. The churn in global markets has sent investors flocking to safe-haven assets such as gold, which hit a record high price on Monday, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield crept up.
Trump’s latest attacks on Powell followed the central bank leader’s suggestion last week that the president’s trade war will constrain growth and could fuel inflation.
Tariffs are “likely to move us further away from our goals … probably for the balance of this year,” Powell said at the Economic Club of Chicago.
Powell also stopped short of suggesting that interest rate cuts were on the horizon.
“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” he said.
Fed Chair Powell on whether the president has the power to fire him: ‘Not permitted under the law’
— CNBC’s Alex Harring contributed to this report.
The biggest questions facing Big Tech ahead of earnings
Published Mon, Apr 21 20259:19 AM EDTUpdated 2 Hours Ago
Key Points
- Tesla kicks off tech earnings season on Tuesday, followed by Alphabet on Thursday.
- All of the megacap companies have significant exposure to President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which will be a major topic on earnings calls.
- With Trump pausing most new tariffs for 90 days and possibly exempting some sectors, companies are awash with uncertainty.
In this article
- NVDA-5.58 (-5.50%)
- MSFT-9.20 (-2.50%)
- META-20.73 (-4.13%)
- AMZN-6.27 (-3.63%)
- GOOGL-4.72 (-3.12%)
- TSLA-16.68 (-6.91%)
- AAPL-6.85 (-3.48%)
As tech’s megacap companies enter first-quarter earnings season this week, get ready to hear one word on repeat: uncertainty.
President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again approach to tariffs has created market chaos this month — including five days of massive moves for the Nasdaq — as investors try to gauge the future impact on revenue and earnings for American companies that rely on imports.
Beyond the increase in costs are the follow-on effects, such as the likely drop-off in ad spending that comes with tighter budgets and the potential slowdown in consumer spending that could result from higher prices and rising unemployment.
Trump’s tariffs face almost universal disapproval in the corporate world, which became clear as trillions of dollars in value evaporated in a matter of days, and some of the president’s most vocal supporters, including Elon Musk, voiced opposition.
Beyond being bad for business, the tariff picture changes by the day, making it almost impossible for companies to plan for the future when considering where to manufacture, whether to continue hiring and how aggressively to market products.
On April 9, following four days of market turmoil, Trump dropped tariffs to 10% for most trade partners (while increasing the levy on China to 145%) for 90 days to allow negotiations with those countries. Since then, the Trump administration has signaled that phones, computers and chips would be exempted from the new tariffs, but the president then added to the confusion by casting doubt on the duration of the exemptions, which were viewed as a boon most notably for Apple.
When Tesla kicks off tech earnings on Tuesday, followed by Alphabet on Thursday, executive teams will likely face forward-looking questions that may be difficult to answer.
Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple are all slated to report results next week. Chipmaker Nvidia reports in late May.
As of Thursday’s close, the Nasdaq was down 16% for the year and 6% in April. The first quarter was the worst for the index in almost three years.
Here are some of the key issues facing each tech megacap, in order of when they report:
Tesla
Tesla’s Tuesday report lands against a murky backdrop for the electric vehicle maker.
The stock is down 40% for the year so far after closing out its worst quarter since 2022 in March. The big story has been Musk’s many distractions outside of Tesla, most notably his work slashing the federal government as part of the Trump administration.
Tariffs are also a problem, as the company relies on suppliers in Mexico and China for items like automotive glass, printed circuit boards and battery cells, among other parts essential for the production of its cars. Tesla has sought an exemption from the U.S. Trade Representative for equipment imported from China that it uses in its factories.
On the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call in January, Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja cautioned shareholders that the Trump administration’s tariffs would have an “impact on our business and profitability.”
For the first quarter, analysts are projecting revenue growth of less than 1% from a year earlier, followed by a slight year-over-year slippage in the second quarter. Investors will want to see if Musk can provide any clarity on how costly tariffs could be going forward. Musk has made his thoughts on the matter fairly clear, calling Trump’s top trade advisor and tariff proponent Peter Navarro a “moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks.”
Tesla’s business was already under pressure before tariffs and uncertainty roiled markets. In early April, the company reported 337,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter, a 13% decline from the previous year. To win over customers in the face of a Musk-induced backlash, and to get customers to buy inventory cars when a new Model Y is on the way, the company had to offer an array of incentives and discounts in the first quarter.
Piper Sandler analysts last week revised their Tesla price target lower, saying after the first-quarter whiff on deliveries that “gross margin is probably trending near multi-year lows.”
Alphabet
Google parent Alphabet faces an online ad market that’s on edge due to concerns about how Trump’s tariffs will affect the economy and business spending.
A note last week from Piper Sandler pointed to fears of an 18% impact to growth forecasts for the 2025 global ad market. Chinese discount e-commerce apps Temu and Shein, which have been big advertisers in the U.S. in recent years, are of notable concern, and Temu has already pulled way back on spending.
Retail represents at least 21% of Google ad revenue, according to estimates by Oppenheimer & Co., which said that Meta has even more exposure to ad pullbacks.
Investors are equally concerned about the cloud business, as Alphabet is a massive spender on imported data center infrastructure, and is going even bigger to keep up with the AI boom. The company has said it plans to spend $75 billion this year, mostly going toward servers and data centers to power AI and its cloud business.
It’s unclear whether Google will adjust that figure, but such a move may be necessary. Mizuho analysts wrote on April 8 that roughly 25% of Google channel partner customers have reduced spending on the company’s cloud, and “we expect that mix to increase to 50% from elevated customer hesitation” after the tariff announcement.
Though Alphabet doesn’t make a large chunk of its revenue from consumer hardware, it does produce its Pixel and Fitbit products abroad and runs its services on the most popular phone carriers. Pixel products are manufactured in India, after the company began diversifying its supply chain away from China.
Meta
Meta has a small hardware business, focused largely on selling virtual reality devices. That’s not the biggest concern for investors.
Rather, like with Google, it’s the potential impact of the tariffs on the economy and the willingness of businesses to spend on digital ads. In Meta’s case, that means ads on Facebook and Instagram.
Meta acknowledged the negative impact of a U.S.-China trade dispute in its latest annual report, noting that an action “that reduces or eliminates our China-based advertising revenue” would “adversely affect” financial results. Meta’s China revenue was $18.35 billion in 2024, representing a little over 11% of total sales.
Analysts say Temu and Shien represent the bulk of Meta’s China sales. Bank of America analysts wrote in a recent note that Meta could face “3% revenue exposure to Temu and Shein in the US” due to the tariffs. While the “tariff situation still remains fluid,” the firm said companies will reduce online ad spending due to a weakening economy. The analysts reduced their estimate for 2025 revenue by 4.4% to $179.8 billion.
Oppenheimer analysts wrote in a recent note that the China trade war will hurt Meta more than Google, because it’s “more exposed to discretionary spending” and China. The firm warned that companies are more likely to cut ad spending on social media than search, based on a March survey of advertisers from the Interactive Advertising Bureau.
Where costs could be a concern for Meta is in the data center, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg said earlier this year that the company would spend $60 billion to $65 billion in capex in 2025, calling it a “defining year for AI.” The bulk of that infrastructure has to be imported from Asia, and analysts will have plenty of questions for the company about how much more it will have to spend to continue its AI advancements.
Microsoft
Microsoft makes PCs and video game consoles, but it derives most of its revenue from selling software. The company buys lots of hardware to operate cloud services for its clients, transactions that are subject to significantly higher costs due to tariffs.
In early January, Microsoft announced it was aiming to spend more than $80 billion this fiscal year on data centers capable of handling artificial intelligence workloads.
Where investors may be most concerned for Microsoft is in the company’s expansive customer base and whether Trump’s trade policies will lead clients to cut spending on products.
“There’s not a direct tariff impact, and so what we talk about is indirect,” said Brent Bracelin, an analyst at Piper Sandler. He recommends buying Microsoft shares.
Recent surveys indicate that software sales cycles are lengthening and interest in buying new software is waning, Bracelin said. Other analysts have said Microsoft, along with Salesforce, are among the software vendors that are best able to handle higher tariffs.
“We see MSFT and CRM as two of the names best positioned to weather this macro storm as they are already back at/near 2022 trough levels and can adjust spending/capex levels for this ‘new reality’ if needed to preserve” earnings and cash, Evercore ISI analysts wrote in a note earlier this month.
Amazon
Amazon’s position as an e-commerce juggernaut gives it hefty exposure to potential tariff headwinds, and not just because of consumer spending.
More than 60% of Amazon’s sales are from items sold by third-party merchants, and many of those sellers source their products from China. The remaining 40% comes from vendors Amazon purchases from directly.
Within days of Trump’s new tariffs, Amazon canceled some of those merchandise orders from vendors in China, while Amazon sellers have said they’re considering raising the price of their products.
Investors will be listening for any commentary around the impact of tariffs on its online stores business, especially as Amazon’s summer Prime Day discount event nears. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC last week the company will work to keep prices low on its website, but that sellers may need to “pass the cost” of tariffs on to consumers.
“Amazon is probably the best-positioned company in retail and e-commerce to take advantage of the chaotic situation from tariffs and shifting global supply chains,” Barclays analysts, who have a buy rating on Amazon, wrote in a recent report. “The pandemic was a precursor of this, during which Amazon was able to gain share and move quicker than peers despite its massive size.”
The company’s advertising unit could be “pressured more if trade wars get worse,” analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald, who also recommend buying the stock, wrote in a note on April 15. Most of Amazon’s ad revenue comes from sponsored product ads that appear in search results on its website. Businesses could pull back on their ad spend as they look to conserve costs or reduce traffic to products sourced from China.
And like the other hyperscalers, Amazon has all of the potential added costs associated with tariffs on advanced chips and other data center equipment, depending on what products end up getting exempted. Amazon Web Services is the market leader in cloud infrastructure, ahead of Microsoft and Google.
Apple
Apple has outsized exposure to Trump’s tariffs, as the company generates about three-quarters of its revenue from selling devices that are mostly manufactured in Asia. While Apple got an apparent reprieve when the Trump administration suspended tariffs on computers from China earlier this month, the company still faces significant uncertainty with the possibility of another Trump shift.
Apple has tried to hedge its China risk in recent years, bolstering manufacturing capacity in countries including Vietnam and India. Officials in India said that Apple loaded planes full of iPhones made in the country and sent them to the U.S. in response to tariffs.
Wall Street has been dumping shares of the iPhone maker, sending the stock down 8% in March and another 11% so far this month, a recognition of how damaging long-term tariffs would likely be on Apple’s business.
CEO Tim Cook, along with many of his tech counterparts, has tried cozying up to President Trump, donating to his inauguration in January and attending the event in Washington, D.C. But investors have yet to hear how Cook and the rest of the management team plan to deal with the increased costs, how the company is managing inventory and how it will all add up to affect margins.
Nvidia
Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) are key to the AI infrastructure buildouts across the tech industry. While semiconductors have a tariff exemption, many of the AI servers that have driven the recent boom have been shipped to the U.S. as mostly finished computers, putting them at risk of tariffs.
Since an AI server can cost upwards of $50,000, even small tariffs could have a big impact on costs. And the almost tenfold increase in Nvidia’s stock price over the past two calendar years has baked into it an assumption that sales and profit margins will keep inflating.
Investors will want to hear from CEO Jensen Huang about his relationship with Trump, given the potential importance of that dynamic.
Nvidia said last week that it would produce its “AI supercomputers” in Texas, days after Huang met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida. Nvidia also said it would buy and package chip production services from companies in Arizona. The company said it would “produce” a half-trillion dollars in AI infrastructure over the next four years.
The White House praised the move, and said in a press release that Nvidia was leading an “American-made chips boom.” Nvidia’s plans for U.S. production will rely on the company getting exceptions for many of the parts it will need to build the computers.
Nvidia’s concern with the government isn’t just about tariffs. The company said last week that it will take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations.
During President Joe Biden’s administration, the U.S. restricted AI chip exports and then updated the rules to prevent the sale of more advanced AI processors. The H20 is an AI chip for China that was designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions. It generated an estimated $12 billion to $15 billion in revenue in 2024.
— CNBC’s Lora Kolodny, Jennifer Elias, Jonathan Vanian, Jordan Novet, Annie Palmer and Kif Leswing contributed to this report.
Elon Musk ratchets up attacks on Navarro as Tesla shares slump for fourth day
Published Tue, Apr 8 20254:33 PM EDTUpdated Tue, Apr 8 20256:47 PM EDT
Key Points
- Tesla CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly slammed President Donald Trump’s top trade advisor, Peter Navarro, calling him “dumber than a sack of bricks,” before later sarcastically apologizing to bricks.
- Since the president’s announcement of widespread tariffs Wednesday, Tesla shares have been in freefall.
- The spat between Musk and Navarro is the most public rift among members of Trump’s inner circle since he took office in January.
As Tesla shares plummeted for a fourth straight day, CEO Elon Musk let loose on President Donald Trump’s top trade advisor, Peter Navarro.
Musk, the world’s richest person, started going after Navarro over the weekend, posting on X that a “PhD in econ from Harvard is a bad thing, not a good thing,” a reference to Navarro’s degree. Whatever subtlety remained at the beginning of the week has since vanished.
On Tuesday, Musk wrote, “Navarro is truly a moron” in response to the trade advisor’s remark that Tesla is more of a “car assembler” than a car manufacturer, adding that Navarro’s comments are “demonstrably false.” Musk called Navarro “dumber than a sack of bricks,” before later sarcastically apologizing to bricks. Musk also called Navarro “dangerously dumb.”
Musk’s attacks on Navarro represent the most public spat between members of Trump’s inner circle since the president took office in January, and show that the steep tariffs Trump announced Wednesday on more than 180 countries and territories don’t have universal approval in the administration.
When asked about the feud in a briefing Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs.”
“Boys will be boys, and we will let their public sparring continue,” she said.
Musk’s younger brother, Kimbal — a restaurant owner, entrepreneur and Tesla board member — has joined in on the action. Kimbal Musk criticized the tariffs Monday, calling them a “permanent tax on the American consumer.” He followed that up Tuesday by posting on X that the China-U.S. standoff is “not a game that should be played by C-minus students like Peter Navarro.”
For the Tesla CEO, the name-calling appears to be tied to business conditions.
Tesla’s stock is down 22% in the past four trading sessions and 45% for the year. Tesla has lost more than $585 billion in value since the calendar turned, equaling tens of billions of dollars in paper losses for Musk, who is also CEO of SpaceX and owner of xAI and social network X.
Even before Trump detailed his plan for widespread tariffs, he’d already placed a 25% tariff on vehicles not assembled in the U.S. Many analysts said Tesla could withstand those tariffs better than competitors because its vehicles sold in the U.S. are assembled domestically.
But the company’s production costs are poised to increase because of the tariffs on materials and parts from foreign suppliers. Canada and Mexico are among the leading sources of U.S. steel imports, and Canada is the nation’s largest supplier of aluminum, while China and Mexico are home to major suppliers of printed circuit boards to the automotive industry.
At an event Saturday hosted by right-wing Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, Musk said, “Both Europe and the United States should move, ideally, in my view, to a zero-tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone between Europe and North America.”
Musk, whose view on trade relations with Europe stands in stark contrast to the policies implemented by Trump, has a vested interest in the region. Tesla has a large car factory outside Berlin, and the European Commission has previously turned to SpaceX for launches.
Even before the tariffs, Tesla’s business was faltering. On Wednesday, the company reported a 13% year-over-year decline in first-quarter deliveries, missing analysts’ estimates. That report landed two days after Tesla’s stock price wrapped up its worst quarter since 2022.
Musk, who spent roughly $290 million to help return Trump to the White House, is now leading Trump’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which has slashed costs, eliminated regulations and cut tens of thousands of federal jobs. In the first quarter, Tesla was hit with waves of protests, boycotts and some criminal activity that targeted vehicles and facilities in response to Musk’s political rhetoric and his work in the White House.
Correction: A prior version of this story had an incorrect figure for Musk’s contributions to the Trump campaign.
Trump is ‘shredding’ credibility with allies while China benefits, former national security advisor John Bolton says
Published Tue, Apr 15 20259:48 AM EDTUpdated Tue, Apr 15 202510:52 AM EDT
Key Points
- “This is certainly not the way you treat your friends. You don’t slap them in the face publicly and say, I’m going to tariff you unless you do better on trade negotiations,” Bolton told CNBC.
- International leaders, including U.S. allies, have criticized Trump’s actions.
- On Monday, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping embarked on what some observers are dubbing a charm offensive through Southeast Asia, first visiting Vietnam followed by scheduled trips to Malaysia and Cambodia.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s moves to take China to task on trade are likely to backfire as his sweeping global tariffs hit allies as well as rivals, according to former national security advisor John Bolton.
“This is certainly not the way you treat your friends. You don’t slap them in the face publicly and say, I’m going to tariff you unless you do better on trade negotiations,” Bolton told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Monday.
“And in fact, the one country that really deserves a trade war — China — we’ve put them in a much better position strategically by going to war on tariffs with our best friends, whereas if we had all joined together, maybe we would have had an impact on China’s behavior. So, this is a not just an economic blunder, which I think it clearly is. It’s a strategic blunder that’s going to cost the United States dearly if this tariff policy isn’t reversed.”
A White House spokesperson was not immediately available to respond when contacted by CNBC.
Trump sent global markets into chaos on April 2, which he termed “liberation day,” unveiling tariffs on nearly every country and territory based on a calculation that economists roundly criticized as nonsensical. A blanket 10% tariff on imported goods was imposed globally, while many countries faced much larger levies based on the U.S. trade deficit with them — a move Trump described as “reciprocal” despite the metric being unrelated to tariffs.
Within a few days that saw market mayhem, trillions of dollars of wealth erased, and a spike in U.S. treasury yields, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the larger tariffs but maintained the blanket 10% measure on all countries, including Washington’s closest allies, as well as prior 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. He then increased levies on China, which had already responded with its own tariffs on U.S. goods.
The world’s two largest economies escalated the levies tit for tat, with the current U.S. tariff on Chinese imports at 145% and China’s tariff on U.S. imports at 125%. China has vowed to “fight to the end”; the Trump administration recently announced an exemption for Chinese-imported electronics, including smartphones.
Bolton agreed with Trump’s conviction that China should be held to account for what he described as unfair trade practices and violations, including intellectual property theft, protecting and subsidizing certain industries to create unfair competition, and “manipulating the World Trade Organization.”
“If you want to deal with that problem, certainly it would make sense to get together with Japan, Korea, Singapore, other Asian countries, the European countries, others around the world who have been victimized by China in the same way the U.S. has,” Bolton said.
“Instead, we’re having a war with our friends and really crippling our ability to deal effectively with China.”
Xi on a charm offensive
International leaders have criticized Trump’s actions. On Tuesday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou said that “the president of the United States has started a hurricane” that shattered trust around the world, according to a Reuters translation.
On Monday, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping embarked on what some observers are dubbing a charm offensive through Southeast Asia, first visiting Vietnam followed by scheduled trips to Malaysia and Cambodia.
“Xi Jinping is trying to build up allies,” Bolton said. “If Trump had any sense, he would be doing the same thing; instead of he’s alienating our allies. … The damage that’s being done to us, credibility, our good faith, people’s reliance on [the U.S.] built up over the last eight decades — since the end of World War II — Trump is shredding. And China, of all places, is saying, you know, we’re really an island of stability in the midst of all this turmoil. I don’t think Trump understands this.”
The Chinese leader “is not going to stop in Southeast Asia,” Bolton said. “We know even before the tariffs started being imposed … his people had spoken to South Korea and Japan to have a common front against the U.S. tariffs. This is just insanity from the U.S. point of view, that we would even let this happen.”
Trade war fallout: Cancellations of Chinese freight ships begin as bookings plummet
Published Wed, Apr 16 20251:38 PM EDTUpdated Thu, Apr 17 20259:20 AM EDT
Lori Ann LaRocco@loriannlarocco
Key Points
- The number of canceled sailings of freight vessels out of China is picking up as ocean carriers attempt to manage a pullback in orders due to the trade war and tariffs.
- A steep decline in containers being shipped to the U.S. will have a big impact on the supply chain, from port to trucking, rail and warehouse economics.
- “We won’t go to zero containers, but we will see a decrease in containers and as a result, in the future we will see a massive raft of blank sailings announced,” one freight expert tells CNBC.
U.S. importers are being notified of an increase in canceled sailings by freight ships out of China as ocean carriers try to balance the pullback in orders resulting from President Trump’s tariffs and the escalation of tensions in the trade war.
A total of 80 blank, or canceled, sailings out of China have been recorded by freight company HLS Group. It wrote in a recent note to clients that with the trade war between China and the U.S. leading to a demand plummet, carriers have started to suspend or adjust transpacific services.
Major ocean freight alliance ONE has “suspended until further notice” a route it had previously been planning to bring back in May, which would include ports of Qingdao, Ningbo, Shanghai, Pusan, Vancouver, and Tacoma. Meanwhile, an existing route is planning to cancel its port call at Wilmington, North Carolina.
The impact of the diminished freight container traffic to North America will be significant for many links in the economy and supply chain, including the ports and logistics companies moving the freight. If each sailing was carrying 8,000 to 10,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), that would equal a decline in freight traffic of between 640,000-800,000 containers, and lead to decreased crane operations at the ports, lower fees that could be collected, and declines in container pick-ups and transports by trucks, rails, and to warehouses for storage.
The World Trade Organization warned on Wednesday that the outlook for global trade has “deteriorated sharply” in the wake of Trump’s tariffs plan. JB Hunt shares hit their lowest level since November 2020 after commentary during the trucking company’s earnings call about the uncertainty from tariffs.
“We have no way of knowing how significant this drop in orders will be on vessel schedules,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence. “There are no models to extrapolate this. What I can tell you is the majority of containers on the vessels servicing the Asia to U.S. trade routes is China. We won’t go to zero containers, but we will see a decrease in containers and as a result, in the future, we will see a massive raft of blank sailings announced.”
China accounts for approximately 30% of all U.S. containerized imports (down from 37% in 2018), but accounts for approximately 54% of all U.S. containerized imports from Asia (down from 67% in 2018).
Bruce Chan, director of global logistics & future mobility for Stifel, said the tariff policy has created significant uncertainty with respect to consumer demand, and retailers have been positioning their businesses conservatively with inventory, especially given “scar tissue” from the recent overstock after the post-Covid supply chain squeeze from 2021-2022. “That uncertainty is beginning to manifest in blanked container ship sailings on core eastbound transpacific lanes, in our view, opening the potential for a double-digit decline in inbound containerized imports as early as next month,” he said.
Booking volumes from the last week of March to first week of April across global and U.S. trade lanes plummeted. There were sharp decreases in bookings across several categories, including apparel & accessories; and wool, fabrics & textiles, both down over 50%. Major product categories from China that are moved in containers include apparel, toys, furniture, and sports equipment, all of which are subject to steep tariffs.
As a result of the decrease in containers, ocean carriers will not only cancel vessels, but also adjust or cancel vessel routes commonly called “vessel strings,” such as the ONE service from China to Vancouver and Tacoma. These routes dedicating vessels to move the ocean freight at specific ports take months of planning. The elimination of vessels also impacts U.S. exports bound for Asia and relying on ships traveling in both directions.
Ocean carriers need to move full vessels to generate a return on investment, but it is not in their best interest to use large vessels if they cannot be filled. To ensure vessels are used at full capacity, carriers have a number of ways to alter the vessel strings. Stretching out ship arrivals by canceling sailings is an option for container volume to better match capacity. According to Murphy, 99% of vessel services are weekly and it takes a vessel approximately seven weeks to make a round trip.
“During Covid, ocean carriers parked their vessels for maintenance,” Murphy said. “Ocean carriers can also blank (cancel) a sailing, omit vessel strings entirely, use smaller vessels, or slow steam the vessels where they are traveling longer.”
These measures will cut the available vessel capacity for containers, according to Murphy, which helps remaining ships to be filled, with uncertain implications for overall pricing in the ocean freight business. While a decline in sailings could lead to a drop in prices, during Covid, blank sailings were identified by shippers around the world as a reason for container rates that spiked as high as $30,000. In that case, shippers say the ocean carriers canceled sailings for longer than needed.
Vietnam continues to gain on China
The global supply chain demand and pricing situation remains fluid and subject to sharp short-term swings tied to tariffs policy. As Chinese trade comes under strain, a key metric in ocean freight rates shows Vietnam surging in early April.
The “mid-low” ocean rates, which represent the costs of shipping goods for a larger-sized shipper on a particular ocean route, have jumped by 43% since March 30 for Vietnam. Xeneta calculates the market mid-low and market mid-high segments by looking at the values of the 25 and 75 percentiles of a trade lane rate.
“The fact that the lower end of the market has been rising shows the heat is on,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta. He said that is continuing after Trump’s decision to pause what he called “reciprocal” tariffs on countries other than China for 90 days.
“Shippers large and small all have to pay up for frontloading, as the ‘pause’ made the pulling forward of freight possible again,” Sand added.
This demand from U.S. shippers importing goods can be seen in the increase in container shipping spot rates on the Ho Chi Minh City to Los Angeles ports route, jumping by 24% going into April.
According to data compiled by Xeneta for 2025, the spread between China’s largest container port, Shanghai, and Vietnam’s largest container port, Ho Chi Minh City, has also narrowed per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for shipments to the ports of LA and Long Beach.
Even with increased costs for shippers, they will continue to bring in imports from non-China nations because the situation remains highly unpredictable, Sand said. “There is every possibility the higher tariffs come into effect 90 days from now or even at an earlier stage,” he added.
Goldman Sachs extends $100M program for rural small businesses to Utah
By Gabriela Fletcher, KSL.com | Posted – April 19, 2025 at 3:01 p.m.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Goldman Sachs launched its $100-million program for rural small businesses in Utah on Thursday.
- The initiative is an extension of its 10,000 Small Businesses program for rural communities.
- Utah’s first cohort begins in October, aiming to enhance education and resources for entrepreneurs.
SALT LAKE CITY — Goldman Sachs announced applications are open in Utah for its $100-million investment initiative to provide education and loans to small businesses in rural communities.
The initiative is an extension of the global investment firm’s 10,000 Small Businesses program, which aims to provide education, capital and support services to small-business owners through a 12-week curriculum. After seeing the success the program had in urban areas, Goldman Sachs committed $100 million in 2023 to expand the program to rural communities in 20 states in the next five years.
Applications for the program are open through July 16 and can be found online. Utah’s first program cohort will begin in October.
“Businesses outside of the metro Salt Lake area … can now all access this best-in-class educational program, access to capital and an all-important peer network,” said Asahi Pompey, global head of Corporate Engagement at Goldman Sachs. “Why are we doing this? Because Goldman Sachs is bullish. We’re bullish on the economic power and potential of Utah.”
Utah is now the 11th state to be included in the rural communities investment. According to Goldman Sachs, 86% of small businesses in rural communities plan to grow, but less than 10% believe they have the needed resources. The $100 million investment includes $75 million for small business loans.
Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses program has produced 16,600 graduates nationwide in its 15-year career, far surpassing its original goal. Salt Lake City’s small businesses program celebrated the graduation of its 1,000th small business on Thursday at a graduation ceremony for its 35th cohort, made up of nearly 30 business owners. According to Pompey, the cohort has provided 24,000 jobs to Utahns and made $2 billion in revenue.
“(10,000 Small Businesses) believe in me before I believed in myself,” said Shannon Baird, a graduate of the cohort and owner of SHANNON, a custom ring business. “We were all going through the same challenges. I realized that I had been (an) entrepreneur all along, and this program gave me the knowledge, resources and community to do it better. … No one can build a business completely on their own. This program and this community ensures that none of us (have) to.”
Gov. Spencer Cox attended the graduation event, which also commemorated 25 years of Goldman Sachs being in Utah, and joined Pompey in a discussion about the importance of small businesses.
“It’s hard to start a business on the Wasatch Front; it’s even harder to start a business in a rural area,” said Cox. “So this news to me is a dream come true. I love this program, I believe in it so much, and my only lament was always that it wasn’t available to everyone, and now it is.”
Cox discussed the challenges facing small businesses in rural communities, which he described as a simple lack of education and access to education. He also highlighted how Utah remains a national leader in gross domestic product, entrepreneurship and economic outlook, citing the state’s history of collectivism over individualism dating back to the pioneers.
“(We’re used to the) rugged individualism of the West … but Utah is different than Arizona or New Mexico or other places, because it’s not rugged individualism. It’s rugged communities,” said Cox. “People who have come here since, all of us together, realize that we need each other to be successful. … When I say we’re No. 1 in volunteerism and No. 1 in charitable giving, I actually think that’s why we’re No. 1 in business.”
The success of the 10,000 Small Businesses program in Salt Lake City has reflected the state’s overall success in business, according to Pompey.
“What we’ve seen in Utah has been really incredible with our 1,000 graduates. They are growing their business faster than other demographics. They’re creating more jobs for families and communities in the state,” she said. “So we like to say yes, it’s about the small business, but it’s about that network beyond the small business, the impact on families and communities, more broadly.”
Looking forward, Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses is working toward graduating 20,000 entrepreneurs from the program. For more information on the 10,000 Small Businesses program, visit the Goldman Sachs website.
‘They’re staying here’: Millcreek immigrants won’t abide by US government pressure to leave
By Tim Vandenack, KSL.com | Posted – April 18, 2025 at 9:37 p.m.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The Millcreek mayor held a press conference to decry U.S. government efforts to force two immigrant families in the city legally to leave the country.
- The Venezuelans and Haitians were targeted in a letter from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security instructing them to “depart the United States immediately.”
- The immigrants’ lawyer says they plan to remain in the country.
MILLCREEK — As President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigrants continues, ensnaring an asylum-seeking family from Venezuela now living in Millcreek, their lawyer says his clients won’t abide by apparent U.S. government pressure to leave.
“They’re staying here,” said Jim McConkie, a lawyer with the Refugee Justice League, a nonprofit group that represents refugees and others. An April 11 letter from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security giving the family a week to leave is “an absolutely illegal order. They don’t need to leave. They’re lawfully here, unless the United States can prove otherwise.”
McConkie, speaking at a press conference on the matter on Friday, said he’s been in contact with attorneys from around the country, and they’re reporting similar sorts of letters from the Department of Homeland Security. He dubbed the letters a “scare tactic” and said the situation has prompted talk of a national class-action lawsuit against the federal government.
If U.S. authorities attempt to take his clients into custody, he said, “we’ll be in the courts as fast as we can go to get a temporary restraining order.” McConkie said they don’t have criminal records, aren’t involved with gangs and are legally working in Utah.
Millcreek Mayor Jeff Silvestrini led off Friday’s press conference at Millcreek City Hall, decrying the letters, if legitimate, as “an affront to constitutionally guaranteed rights” of due process. McConkie said the four Venezuelans he’s representing — a husband and his wife and the couple’s son and his wife — are here lawfully. The same goes for a Haitian immigrant, also living in Millcreek, who received a similar letter.
The federal government has the right and duty to uphold U.S. immigration law, “but that does not mean that we will stand by silently when the rights of people in our local community are violated. When that happens we will circle our wagons,” Silvestrini said. He values members of the immigrant and refugee community lawfully in the country, “and we want them to feel safe here.”
DHS reps didn’t respond to a query Friday from KSL.com seeking comment. Similarly, McConkie said he hasn’t yet heard from DHS officials, though he might be meeting with them next week. He will also be meeting with representatives from the U.S. Attorney’s Office, while Silvestrini said he’s reached out to Utah’s federal congressional delegation for help.
Trump has made deportation of immigrants here illegally a priority. The April 11 letter to the Venezuelan family, which reads like a form letter, doesn’t spell out any specific violation of law they’ve committed. Rather, in instructing them to leave, it cites discretionary authority granted the DHS secretary under federal law with regard to immigrants paroled into the country. “Do not attempt to remain in the United States — the federal government will find you. Please depart the United States immediately,” the letter reads, in part.
None of the immigrants who are the targets of the letters appeared at Friday’s press conference, though some of their Millcreek neighbors did as a show of support, including Brad Neff.
“These are just fine, kind, hard-working people, people that are fabulous neighbors, and we just couldn’t stand by,” said Neff. “I wrote all of my federal legislators and Gov. (Spencer) Cox. We just couldn’t stand by. We have to stand up for them.”
The families, Neff went on, are nervous. “They’re trying to keep their heads down and work and, at the same time, trying to keep their heads above water. They’re afraid,” he said.
‘Tomorrow it could be American citizens’
The four Venezuelans crossed into the United States with a fifth family member, another son of the older couple, and he was detained at the border when they arrived last August. They haven’t heard from him since. McConkie said the Venezuelans sought entry into the United States during the administration of President Joe Biden using the CBP One app, which gave certain immigrants a means to enter the country and seek asylum. Trump has ended the program.
The Venezuelans were political opponents of the socialist government of President Nicolás Maduro, McConkie said, and had faced backlash for their activism, prompting them to flee. “They were dead in that country,” he said.
Looking for more news from Utah’s Latino community? Visit our Voces de Utah section for more stories, events and features.
The family traveled by land from Venezuela through Central America and Mexico to get to the United States. Officials apparently detained the son still in custody because of tattoos that made U.S. officials think he was involved with a gang. “No allegations against him in his own country. I mean, his own country would say he was part of the dissident group,” McConkie said, but the lawyer rejected any suggestion he was involved in gang activity.
This isn’t the the first time Silvestrini has decried activity in Millcreek by immigration authorities. Last February, he spoke out against the detention of a U.S. citizen in the city by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents after the man honked at the officials while they were detaining a woman on the street.
He said the ICE agents seemed to have “trampled the rights of an American citizen employed in my city” and he used similarly tough language in condemning the apparent efforts against the immigrant families in Millcreek.
“If people like me don’t stand up for this kind of thing, stand up for it early, our rights can be gone in a second,” he said. “Today it’s refugees who came to our country out of fear or danger in their countries. Tomorrow it could be American citizens.”
The Millcreek families and their advocates are seeking donations for legal support.
CBP says latest tariffs have generated $500 million, well below Trump’s estimate
Published Wed, Apr 16 202512:26 PM EDTUpdated Wed, Apr 16 20252:03 PM EDT
Lori Ann LaRocco@loriannlarocco
Key Points
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection told CNBC the department has collected more than $500 million under Trump’s latest tariffs.
- Trump has repeatedly said the United States is taking in $2 billion per day from tariffs.
- CBP says the average $250 million a day was collected even during the glitch that impacted freight already on the water.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection appears to be contradicting President Donald Trump’s comments on the daily revenue generated by his latest slate of tariffs.
The agency said in a statement to CNBC on Monday, “Since April 5, CBP has collected over $500 million under the new reciprocal tariffs, contributing to more than $21 billion in total tariff revenue from 15 presidential trade actions implemented since Jan 20, 2025.”
The update comes after a 10-hour glitch in the finance system prevented U.S. importers from inputting a code that would have exempted freight that was already on the water from being subject to the higher duties.
“Even during the brief glitch, CBP’s average $250 million/day revenue stream remained uninterrupted,” CBP said in its statement.
Trump has repeatedly said the United States is taking in $2 billion per day from tariffs, including revenues directly resulting from his so-called “reciprocal” tariffs.
The most recent data released Monday by the Treasury Department shows the department’s daily statement of total deposits listed under “Customs and Certain Excise Taxes” as $305 million. All tariffs are collected by U.S. Customs at the point of entry.
In early April, the Trump administration imposed steep tariffs on dozens of countries. Hours later, it temporarily lowered most tariff rates to a universal 10%, except for tariffs on China, which it ratcheted up. Meanwhile, the administration maintained sector-specific tariffs on the automotive industry and is expected to announced new trade policies for the pharmaceutical industry.
Why NVIDIA Stock Could Soar Despite Wall Street Downgrades
Written by Thomas Hughes | Reviewed by Jessica Mitacek
April 14, 2025
Key Points
- NVIDIA analysts downgraded and lowered their price targets but remain firm in their belief that the company’s stock can rise 50% to a new high.
- The downgrades set up a stock price rebound that the Q2 earnings report could trigger.
- Tariffs are an uncertainty, but one that will lead to accelerated onshoring of NVIDIA semiconductor manufacturing.
NVIDIA NASDAQ: NVDA analysts started reducing their ratings and price targets in late March, which presents a headwind for the stock price action.
NVIDIA Stock Forecast Today
12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$165.51
73.49% Upside
Moderate Buy
Based on 43 Analyst Ratings
| Current Price | $95.40 |
| High Forecast | $220.00 |
| Average Forecast | $165.51 |
| Low Forecast | $102.50 |
MarketBeat tracks five consecutive negative revisions beginning March 20, including three price target reductions and two downgrades. The downgrades are from Buy or Strong Buy to Hold, and the net result could be a cap on the market.
Regardless of where the consensus target forecasts the stock price, a trend in negative revisions saps investor appetite. This could lead to an even deeper market correction than NVIDIA has already seen. The risk now is that negative revisions will become the trend.
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However, not all analysts are cutting their targets. The five-revision trend that began in late March ended in mid-April when Bank of America reiterated its rating and target. Analysts at Bank of America peg this stock at Moderate Buy, aligning with the broad consensus, and see it advancing to $200 or nearly 80% upside relative to the April 14th price action. They cite the tariff pause as a catalyst for the business.
While the pause does not end the risk of tariffs, it is seen as a catalyst for policy action on Capitol Hill to support and accelerate the onshoring of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.
NVIDIA Announces $500B U.S. AI Infrastructure Build-Out
NVIDIA plans to manufacture half a trillion dollars in AI infrastructure domestically within four years.
The bold claim is supported by ongoing investment in Arizona and Texas facilities, including Taiwan Semiconductor NYSE: TSM and Foxconn, which are intended to ramp up production for NVIDIA and other prominent semiconductor firms.
The goal for NVIDIA is for 100% domestic production of its most advanced chips, including Blackwell and Rubin line-ups, front and back end, packaging, and testing. As it is, the company expects to begin ramping up domestic production at two Texas facilities within the next 12 to 15 months. It has already commissioned more than 1 million square feet of manufacturing space.
NVIDIA Downgrades Set Stock Up to Surge in Q2
As much risk as there is for NVIDIA analysts to cap gains in 2025, the downside is limited because of the stock’s low valuation and outlook for business growth. NVIDIA revenue growth is expected to continue slowing due to the law of large numbers and maturing AI markets, but it will sustain a moderate to low double-digit pace through the end of the next decade. This forecast puts the stock under 10x its earnings by the middle of the next decade, presenting a generational buying opportunity.
The stock price could easily double in this scenario, and the odds are high that it will rise significantly more because the forecasts are likely too low.
Clouds and economic headwinds in early 2025 impacted the outlook, but when they ease, global business, including AI infrastructure build, can regain momentum. The catalyst could come with the Q2 earnings report due at the end of May, when the company issues another solid report and provides positive guidance.
NVIDIA Could Set New Highs Before Its Q2 Earnings Report
Because of the technical setup and analyst forecasts, NVIDIA could set new highs before its Q2 earnings report is released.
Although some analysts have trimmed targets and the consensus has fallen from a peak, it forecasts a 50% upside for this stock, sufficient to exceed the current all-time high by 1500 basis points and could be reached quickly.
Once this market clearly indicates it is moving higher, investor capital will start to flood into it and drive the stock price to the $190 range or higher.
HI Financial Services Mid-Week 06-24-2014