Trade Findings and Adjustments 03-16-23

 

What IS the next catalyst?

• If the next interest rate hike being 0%
• BUT Powell has indicated this week that the FED is still going to have to be aggressively raising rates since inflation numbers have still gone up.
• My suspicion is that the FED will go with a .50% rate hike
• So really NOT a catalyst and more of a risk that we are protecting stocks against.
• Earnings could show how good companies have been able to adapt to a higher interest rate environment
• World unrest won’t help as a catalyst

 

Right now what is newest market catalyst?

Bank Failures = Regional = Runs on cash, liquidity for lending/borrowing, POORLY RUN

FOMC Interest rate hikes 3/22

Both of these move market what direction?=Bearish  

 

IF you were putting on a trade today how are you going to play future market movements?

Dave= I am ready to pull the trigger on protection = Better do by tomorrow because next week the protection will be at a higher premium

Putting on new positions better be non-directional or to the downside most likely = Risk is to the downside

What does 2021 7.5% inflation and 2022 6.4% inflation mean?

THIS DOES NOT MEAN IN FLATION IS COMING DOWN !!!! 

Yes lower inflation y/y BUT 7.5% inflation growth + 6.4% inflation growth = 13.9% inflation growth over two years