HI Financial Services Mid-Week 04-08-2014

HI Financial Services Mid-Week 04-08-2014

What has happened to my portfolio last week? How am I down 10% in such a short period of
time?. – Perspective
Student for Safe Option Strategies

What has been happening
so far this week?

On Monday our market continued to sell off. Tuesday was supposed to be our bounce
back. Dow Jones Industrial Average was
up 10.27, S&P 500 was up 6.92, Nasdaq Composite up 33.23 points. I’m not really impressed with this bounce
back when we lose 166 points on the DJIA in a day. In fact for the first time I am worried that
the long awaited pullback is here. Yes,
Alcoa gave a great earnings today after the market closed but one stock doesn’t move markets. In fact I see a lack of buyers in the market today. Low volume on high percentage movements on
stocks both up and down. Earnings season started today and will last the next
six weeks so I would be protecting early for our earnings season.

Where will our market
end this week?

I don’t have a clue but I see another down week. I see no catalyst to move our market
higher. Wednesday the Fed minutes come
out. I would expect with tapering occurring,
tame inflation, better employment numbers and the expectation that we need to
lower our national debt, tapering WILL continue. Is there a chance that tapering could pause
since our employment is sluggish and the weather hurt the recovery? Maybe but I definitely wouldn’t count on
it. I would expect another down week
because that seems like the current trend.
Without a reason to move higher it looks like we are in for the long
awaited “correction”.

DJIA– We fell from
16,600 down to 16,256. Not a
significant drop and it looks like the 50 SMA is holding. Technically we have RSI and MACD crossovers
to the bearish trend. The 5 day EMA and 20 EMA have not crossed over
bearish. The next couple days will
confirm the bullish trend or confirm that we are bearish

SPX – We touched and
intra-day all time high of 1900 and the sell orders came in pushing our market
down to the 50 SMA. We pierced it today
yet bounced off as a support level. Not
a significant bounce and that worries me.

COMP – Welcome to no man’s
land technically speaking. We broke the
50 SMA and we are equal distance from the 200 and the 50 SMA which are
considered support levels. A horizontal
level of support at 4000 seems to be a level the market doesn’t want to break
below, yet!

Where Will the SPX end April
2014?

04-08-2014

We hit 1900 the first
week of April. We hit my expectation but
we sure didn’t hold it worth beans. I am
still going to follow the trend and call 1900 to be at by the end of the month
of higher. Now if earnings don’t come in
like we expect or worse than expected economic news occurs we could be looking
at a much lower SPX number. Right now it
hasn’t occurred so I won’t speculate and screw up my trading.

04-01-2014

We are starting a new
quarter which normally means buying for funds and re-establishing
positions. The market received very dovish comments
by Yellen and earnings season starts with low expectations. Let’s shoot for 1900 again.

What is on tap for the
rest of the week?=

Earnings:

Tues:
AAS, WDFC

Wed:
RT, BBBY

Thur:
FDO, PIR, RAD

Fri: WFC,
JPM

Econ Reports

Tues: Jolts Job
Openings,

Wed: MBA, Wholesale
Inventories

Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing
Claims, Import, Export, Treasury Budget

Fri:
PPI, Core PPI, Mich Sentiment

Int’l:

Tues – FR: Merchandise
Trade

Wed – JP:
Machine Orders, DE:GB: Merchandise Trade

Thurs – CN: Merchandise Trade,
CPI, PPI GB: BOE Announcement, JP: BOJ
minutes, CGPI (PPI),

Sunday –

How I am looking to
trade?

I am protected for earning
season on the stocks I trade. GO collar
trade GO!!! Stocks have Long Puts and
Short Calls in place to cover me thru the earnings season.

Earnings:

AAPL 4/23 AMC EPS-$10.14

BA 4/23 BMO EPS-$1.56

BIDU 4/24 estimated
date

CAT 4/24 EPS-$1.25

CLDX 5/01 estimated
date

D 4/14 estimated
date

DIS 5/6

F 4/23 estimated
date

FB 4/23 AMC EPS-$0.24

GOOG 4/17 estimated
date

LNCO 5/01 BMO EPS-$0.52