MidWeek Commentary

HI Financial Services Mid-Week 03-04-2014

HI Financial Services
Mid-Week 03-04-2014

Welcome to volatility –
Kevin Hurley

What has been happening
so far this week?

          I got two important phone calls on Monday.  Both said what the heck are you doing and why
haven’t you sold stock or adjusted positions. 
One gentlemen listened to my explanation and basically wanted to know I
had a plan in place.  We had some
protection left over from earnings and added some protection to stocks that
have run more than 20%.  Protect profits
was the name of the game on Monday but it had to be done on Friday!

          Now my second conversation was a little bit different.  They had started to adjust everything
already.  This was the start of a 20%
plus “correction”.  All I had to ask was
for them to prove it to me.  Well the
market is down 198 points. SO WHAT !!! 
No technical cross overs and you have to learn to let the market
move.  They came up with 4 or 5 other
comments but none of them were a confirmation of anything.  Finally they admitted one day does not make a
trend and stopped adjusting or adding positions.  It cost them several grand for a simple

          Lack of experience.  Without
a “methodology” fear and greed run your trading.  One day doesn’t make a trend.  I can come up with 10 other clichés to
explain why you can’t over-react to a single day in the market.  Know your break even points, when you are
going to adjust and when to exit the trade. 


Where will our market
end this week?

Our market depends on the news from Russia and more importantly
the Non-Farm Payroll and/or Private Payroll numbers.  Now I think this is a sentimental week.  But listen to my reasoning.  Our market is hitting new highs on the
S&P 500.  Plenty of excuses on the weather
to continue to blame the not so good economic numbers.  Thanks to China slowing down the United
States is still the best to invest right now. 

I would look to see the S&P 500 test the 1900 level and could
reach it on Friday.  Them we need to see
a base built but I would expect to see the DJIA gain the highs around 16,600
and I still like the COMP bullish trend lines and maybe the Nasdaq does break
5000 this year?


DJIA – We got a great
bounce off the 50 SMA.  Let’s see if we
can test the highs again. At least we seem to know where the downside risk sits



SPX –  New highs and the next stop should be



 COMP – Still moving
higher.  Watch the overbought line on the
chart.  If we go into the overbought area
look for a pullback or consolidation before the next leg up.


Where Will the SPX end March

03-04-2014 = I am
calling the 1900 that I was calling last month. 
Earnings are basically in so it only comes down to news.  Mid-month we have a FOMC meeting and that
will make or break the gains for the month. 


What is on tap for the
rest of the week?=





Fri:              BIG,


Econ Reports


Wed:  MBA, ADP
employment, ISM Services, Fed Beige Book

Thur: Initial Claims,
Continuing Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, Factory Orders

    Ave Workweek, Non-Farm Payroll, Private Payroll, Hourly
Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Consumer Credit, Trade Balance



Tues –   

Wed –   GB:
CIPS/PMI Services, FRE:EMU: PMI Composite

Thurs – DE: Manufacturing
Orders, GB: Bank of England Announcement

Friday – DE: Industrial

Sunday –  CN: PPI,


How I am looking to

I am in a holding
pattern still.  Protecting the last of
the earning season stocks for their earnings. 
Most of the stocks I trade or moving higher so I am shorting puts against
long puts.  I’ve “chased” stocks with
short puts on NVDA, DIS, SNDK,  TSLA,





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