HI Financial Services Mid-Week 01-27-2015
It has been said that history turns on small hinges, and so do our lives. Decisions determine destiny. But we are not left unaided in our decisions. – Thomas S Monson
How safe do you think it is to spread trade with our volatility in the market? There is no right answer but non direction spread trades are the best right now – Strangle, Straddle, Collar, Ratio Spreads and maybe Calendars if Way out in time
Today’s Market
DJIA Down -291 or 1.65%
SPX Down -27.54 or 1.34%
Comp Down -90 or 1.89%
How much was HI down today at the close? Bert won with ALL Trade Monster Accounts down $28,990
Putting that into perspective – Did I beat the market today? YES
Am I beating the market YR to Date? YES down 37K on 6.1 Million
Am I able to sit thru volatility? YES – WHY? Hedged, Collars, Non directional Spreads
What saved me today was chart analysis, collars, non-direction and portfolio hedges with the SPX, !!!!
Put on the hedge yesterday 30 minutes before the market close and closed it 30 mintes today before the market close. Reason Why? Based on positive tech earnings or earnings in general on AAPL, T, YAHOO, MMM, BMY in all honesty I expected bad earnings from COH, CAT, FCX, PFE
If you are fearful of the stock market you should NOT be trading !!! IF you can’t pull the trigger on a trade you should NOT be trading !!! Save your money and wait until volatility slows down or change your style of trading.
18 of the 150 S&P 500 that reported this week up to this morning ALL cited stronger dollar for lower overall revenues and weaker guidance than estimate
What’s happening this week and why?
Greek Elections and new President promises !!!
Durable goods -3.4 vs est 0.5
Durable ex trans -0.8 vs est 0.6
Case Shiller 4.3 vs est 4.3
Consumer Confidence 102.9 vs est 96.0
New Home Sales 481 vs est 450
AAPL, YHOO, PFE beat big today and we will probably see a bounce or follow through into tomorrow and the rest of the week
Where will our market end this week?
End of the month so I will call for 1% down with selling at the end of the month BUT funds have to be in AAPL so the Nasdaq will most likely run positive into the end of the month
DJIA – Bearish on all three tech indicators
SPX – Technically speaking we are bullish, with resistance at 2060 ish and support at 2020ish
COMP – Bullish but today closed below the 50 SMA
Where Will the SPX end January 2015?
01-27-2015 I would expect down 3% but moving down 7 to 10% during the month. Feb my guestimate is 2050 or slightly positive
01-20-2015 I would expect down 3% but moving up 1% or more this week. Earnings may change my mind
01-13-2015 I would expect down 3% but moving down 7 to 10% during the month. Earnings may change my mind
01-06-2015 I would expect down 3% but moving down 7 to 10% during the month
What is on tap for the rest of the week?=
Earnings:
Tues: AAPL, MMM, T, CAT, BMY, PG, GLW, COH, FCX, JNPR, PFE, YHOO, WDC, X
Wed: FB, ATK, BA, GD, HES, IP, LVS, MUR, QCOM, TROW, WYNN
Thur: F, V, ABOT, AMZN, ALV, COP, DOW, DECK, GOOGL, HOG, HSY, JDSU, PSX, RTN, VLO
Fri: BZH, CVX, MA, XRX, TSN
Econ Reports:
Tues: Durable Goods, Durable ex-trans, Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence, New Homes Sales
Wed: MBA, Crude, FOMC Rate Decision,
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Pending Home Sales,
Fri: GDP, Chain Deflator, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment
Int’l:
Tues – FR: Business Climate, GB: GDP
Wed –
Thurs – EMU: MS Money Suppley, EC Economic Sentiment, JP:CPI, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production
Friday – DE: Retail Sales, EMU: HICP Flash, Unemployment Rate
Sunday –
How I am looking to trade?
I am prepared for earnings
1st I am creating my earnings list so I don’t miss an earnings for a company I trade
AAPL – 01/27 AMC
BABA – 01/29 BMO
BIDU – 02/11 AMC
CLDX – 03/02 BMO
D – 02/06 AMC
DIS – 02/03 AMC
F – 01/29 BMO
FB – 01/28 AMC
LNCO – 02/26
NVDA – 02/11
SNDK – 01/21 AMC
V – 01/29 AMC
VZ – 01/22 BMO
WBA – 03/24
ZION – 01/26 AMC
SBUX – 01/22 AMC
MS – 01/20 BMO
PCLN – 02/19
NKE 3/19
RHT 3/26
Questions???
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
customerservice@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
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