Recorded 02-01-2016 Commentary
HI Financial Services Mid-Week Commentary 02-03-2016
Investors: Keep your itchy finger off the trigger – Eric Rosenbaum
Phone call #1
with a potential new client and one let me know that from November of last year top today he is down over 25% but he thinks he has it figured out?!?!?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What do you think I should say? Riiiiiiiight
Phone call #2
With a potential new client with Wells Fargo, doesn’t like his returns and worried about another 2008.
His comment was – I think I should look into what you are doing and who you are
What do you think I should say? Riiiiiiiight
I was frustrated today with phone call number #1 because it has taken years of learnings, education, money spent to learn. Money lost in the market, frustration with me from a spouse, living in my parent’s basement with three kids, up at 5:30 AM every morning, and most I can never please no matter how well I do.
I just showed you a lost decade
Why do people not make money in an asset allocation model
Story of $1 Gain and lose 50% or Lose and Gain 50% in not a 0% Return = -25% Actually
Management fees = Commission to a licensed person like me, Acct Sr Manager, Acct Jr Manager, Broker, Ticket charges, 12-01B fees = 1%, Restructuring, rebalancing, turnover fees= Churning fees , Capital gains the fund pays out of your returns =1.5$ if Long term capital gains
AND NO DAMN PROTETION
What’s happening this week and why?
Volatile, China, Oil = Saudi Arabia and Russia NO compromise for cuts in production, Earnings
Where will our market end this week?
After a big Friday loss and the first week of February you average 2.4% for the first week
DJIA – Still Bearish but we have a MACD Crossover
SPX – Still Bearish but we have a MACD Crossover
COMP – Still Bearish but we have a MACD Crossover
Where Will the SPX end February 2016?
02-03-2016 1%
What is on tap for the rest of the week?=
Earnings:
Tues: ADT, CIT, DOW, EWR, XOM, GILD, FISV, GMGR, KORS, PFE, SIRI, UPS, YHOO
Wed: ALL, ADP, BWLD, CMCSA, IP, MET, NE, QIHU, YUM WYNN
Thur: BZH, BSX, ELY, CI, CLX, COP, CMI, DNKN, GNW, HIG, ICE, ODFL, PM LNKD, LGF
Fri:
Econ Reports:
Tues: Auto, Truck
Wed: MBA, ADP Employment, ISM Services
Thur: Initial, Continuing Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Factory Orders,
Fri: Average Workweek, Non-Farm Payrolls, Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings. Consumer Credit , Trade Balance
Int’l:
Tues – CN: General Services PMI, JP: PMI Composite
Wed – ALL: Global Composite PMI, Global Services PMI, FR:DE:EMU: PMI Composite
Thursday –
Friday – DE: Manufacturing Orders
Sunday –
How I am looking to trade?
Protective puts and collars to get me through an earnings season THEN I roll puts out as I need to so I can keep them OUT of the expiration month
Will leave in place if market goes down.
Will roll long puts to at the money (ATM) for the earnings=
DIS will roll from Feb 100 to Mar 95 BIDU did roll from Feb 175 to Mar 155
Questions???
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
customerservice@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
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