MidWeek Commentary

Trade Findings and Adjustments 03-14-2024

Trade Findings and Adjustments 03-14-24

Currently:  Bad Inflation data, inflation heading higher vs lower

Why is this important?= NO RATE CUTS coming soon

IF we have higher inflation in April No rate cuts until December


What could throw a damper on the market?

  • TAX selling in March and April coming up
  • March usually a down/bearish month in the market
  • Higher inflation


Cramer – Mad Money Yesterday He did a show on his “mistakes”

In general 8 mistakes on a 31-33 stock portfolio

“Never try to catch a falling knife”


Let’s talk about different investing options for the everyday person

 Portfolio Creation – Stock Picking 1 out of 3= 33.3% chance of making money= Gambling

Mutual Funds/ETFs/ or other pool trading = Diversification fees 5-9%

Day Trading=Gambling

Options, Commodities, Currency, Token, Options, – 33.3% chance of making money

Even if you are 50/50 the downs are much more pronounced than the ups


True protection is a mix of Long Puts and Stock Ownership

IF I was looking for a trade I would look for a beaten down stock, over-sold

Sept or Dec 24 7/8 Bull Call

Exit the trade (Primary Exit) around $7.70 Range

IF it goes down to $6.50 I would exit the short at 8, take a profit and let it run back up


Buy the stock at $7.07 with a Sept 7.50 Short call for $0.78 credit

Max return 7.50 – 7.07 + 0.78 = $1.21 / 6.29 cost basis 19.23 % ROI


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