HI Financial Services Commentary 01-31-2017
Let’s talk about timing?!?!?!
What do we know about market timing? – Hard to do, can’t pick tops or bottoms, like weather forecasting and always wrong
We constantly look at charts, info, news about the market to??? – Trying to anticipate
This is what investing comes down to – ALWAYS paying attention to make your best educated guess, while protecting to the downside and letting your winner run. Trading is living with your consequence.
Which means sometimes I don’t get the runs higher that I’m expecting with the stocks I invest in.
When the VIX was at 11ish and markets were at a possible low that would break lower I bought Mar 220 OTM Long Puts on the SPY.
I play the VIX differently by placing OTM Bull Calls 20/26
If you lose your money you can’t play in the game anymore!!!
How did AAPL do at earning today
EPS $3.28 vs est $3.22 beat by $0.06
Rev 17.9 B vs est 18.1B misses by 200 million
Guidance 51.5 to 53.5 B vs est Rueters 53.79 B
Beat top line and missed bottom line and guidance?
78.35 B in revenue was hgher than last years 75.9B
78.3 M iphones sold vs est 77 M = Beat by 1.8 Million
Service revenue 7.17B up from 6.01B and it beat the est 6.9B by 200 Million
Declared a cash dividend of $0.57 BUT
MOST IMPORTANT COMMENT was…. Repatriation is good for the US economy and also good for AAPL!
Not to mention the 10 year anniversary iphone is due out all in glass
What’s happening this week and why?
Fed meeting that should be a non-issue
Ave Workweek reports on Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls, Private Payrolls, ADP Employment
ISM indexes this week
Don’t expect a lot of good news this week because? GDP 1.9 vs est 2.2
Durable goods -0.4 vs est 3.0 Durable ex-trans .6 vs est .5
Yes with AAPL, new month sell of this month we will/might get a bounce tomorrow but still probably will be down week for the third week in a row. AND still for 76 days the S&P has not had a 1% daily pullback which is close to the longest time in history
Where will our market end this week?
Down again
DJIA – Still technically bullish but looks like it is rolling on over
SPX – Still technically bullish but hitting a round number with tons of sell orders stacked up
COMP – Bullish stair pattern on the Nasdaq heading to new high spy
Where Will the SPX end Feb 2017?
01-31-2017 -2.5%
What is on tap for the rest of the week?=
Earnings:
Tues: AFL, CHRW, COH, LLY, HOG, MA, NUE, PFE, S, X, VLO, AAPL, XOM, UAA
Wed: ADP, MDC, FB, JCI, D,
Thur: AMZN, AMGN, BSC, CME, COP, EL FEYE, GPRO, IP, RL, V
Fri: HSY, PSX, CLX
Econ Reports:
Tues: Employment Cost Index, Case-Shiller, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence
Wed: MBA, Crude, ADP Employment, ISM Index, Consumer Spending, Auto, Truck, FOMC Rate Decision
Thur: Initial, Continuing Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs,
Fri: Average Workweek, Non-Farm Payroll, Private Payroll, Hourly Earnings, Unemployment rate Factory Orders, ISM Services
Int’l:
Tues – CN: CFLP Mani PMI, JP: PMI Manu Index
Wed –
Thursday – JP: BoJ MPB Minutes, CN: PMI Manu Index
Friday –
Sunday –
How I am looking to trade?
I’m basically collared or protective put for earnings
Earnings Chart
AAPL 01/31 AMC
BIDU 02/23 est
DIS 02/07 est
FB 02/01 AMC
NVDA 02/15 est
AOBC 03/02 est
V 02/02 AMC
Non – Earnings ETF’s
XLF
XLRE
Questions???
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
HI Financial Services Mid-Week 06-24-2014