HI Market View Commentary 05-26-2020
Happy Anniversary to Mrs. Andrea Hurley = 19 Years
Happy First Hole in One after 22 years in Golfing
Let’s talk a little about our current stock market
Thoughts = I’m surprised we didn’t have a pullback once we gained 50% of what we lost
Currently we have a market down 7.4% S&P 500
Overall (minus the people we put into BA stock) we’ve done pretty good
Over 750K all profitable
Most of 250 – 750 most are profitable
Half of the less than 250 profitable
Index wait and see individuals are down at least 7.4% and if you add 57% more money to your portfolio you damn well better be break even at this point
What do you get if you are with Hurley Investments
BA over a 200% gain in shares because we cashed in the long puts and bought more share 100% paid for with the insurance. BE around 162
DIS 20% more shares, BIDU 150% more shares, UAA 100% more shares, F 100% more shares
AAPL 33%-70% more shares, FB 20% more shares,
I want to go back to 3 to 4 weeks ago, how energetic I was with a 28% down market
His account was down, BA sucks, didn’t understand bear puts, cost of protection was extremely high and fighting both fear and greed.
The stock market is NOT for Everyone and it is NOT easy.
To put the pandemic into a perspective
There comes a time during uncertainty to take the profits and IF you might be wrong, get back in, father out in time USING the market money or being in a risk free trade because you are using 100% profits from a previous trade protecting you initial investment.
Where will our markets end this week?
SPX – Bullish
Where Will the SPX end June 2020?
Wed: BMO, ADSK, HPQ, NTAP, TOL
Thur: ANF, BURL, DG, DLTR, LL, DELL, MRVL, JWN, TCOM, VMW, COST, ULTA
Fri: BIG, GCO
Mon: MARKET CLOSED – Memorial Day
Tues: FHFA Housing Price Index, SP Case Shiller, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence
Wed: MBA, Fed Beige Book
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Durable Goods, Durable ex-trans, GDP, GDP Deflator, Pending Home Sales
Fri: Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Prices, Core PCE, Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment
How am I looking to trade?
Letting some things run, Taking Profits on FB, short term covered calls on stock positions for June
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
People mostly staying home are still getting Covid-19—here’s the problem and what to do about it
Published Fri, May 15 20204:02 PM EDTUpdated Fri, May 15 20205:49 PM EDT
In a press conference May 6, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said that 66% of new hospitalizations in New York for Covid-19 were people who had been staying home.
“This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home,” Cuomo said. “We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we’ve taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home.”
The “shocking” data came from a survey of more than 100 New York hospitals and about 1,300 new patients, Cuomo said.
It raises the question: “Of the people who are staying home, how rigorously are they staying at home?” Stephen Morse, professor of epidemiology at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, who focuses on risk assessment of infectious diseases, tells CNBC Make It.
It’s possible that as we enter the ninth and tenth week of fairly extreme prevention measures, people are feeling fatigued or getting too relaxed, says Joseph Vinetz, professor of medicine at the Yale School of Medicine and physician scientist in infectious diseases.
“Just because we’re tired doesn’t mean that the virus cares,” he says. “Viruses have no emotions; they just do their thing.”
According to Cuomo, “much of this comes down to what you do to protect yourself.”
So from masks to groceries, here’s a reminder checklist of the measures epidemiologists and infectious disease experts say you should still absolutely be following, even if you live in a place that’s re-opening:
Use masks carefully
Since early April the Centers for Disease Control has suggested that people wear masks or cloth face coverings outside of the home to help prevent the spread of Covid-19.
In addition to having a face mask to use, “people have to be very careful about how they put them on and how they take some off,” Morse says. Wash your hands before putting your mask on your face.
Fit is key: Your mask should cover your nose and mouth snugly, but comfortably.
“There’s a wire that goes over the nose piece that you have to mold to your nose,” Vinetz says. “Then you have to tuck [the mask] under your chin.”
“It’s not hard [to wear a mask], but somebody has to kind of show people how to do it right,” he adds. (This helpful video demonstrates how to wear a mask.) Indeed, wearing a mask can feel somewhat uncomfortable, but both for effective prevention and sanitary reasons, it’s important to keep it on during your entire outing, instead of removing it to take breaks or talk to people.
When you take your mask off, you should remove it without touching the front of it, and wash your hands afterwards, Morse says. “If [masks] become contaminated and you touch them — even if your hands are clean — when you then touch your face afterwards you can infect yourself,” he says.
Reusable cloth masks should be cleaned regularly, per the CDC, which means after each time you wear it, or whenever it becomes soiled. You can wash masks in a washing machine with hot water, and tumble dry them with high heat.
Steer clear of people on the street
Most of us have heard that we need to be at least six feet from other people when out in public. “That’s not a magic number,” but it’s believed to be the distance necessary to prevent respiratory droplets from reaching you if someone sneezes or coughs, Morse says.
Physical distance can be hard to come by. “There’s a limit to how far you can, especially in New York City, keep apart,” Morse says.
Try to avoid looking at people face-to-face when you’re outside in crowded places, Morse says. “It sounds strange,” but it keeps you out of people’s line of breath, he adds. You can also try to stagger how you’re walking so that you’re side-by-side with others, rather than directly behind someone.
Keep washing your hands diligently
Hand hygiene is still incredibly important, because it’s easy to accidentally touch your face and infect yourself.
“You always want to make sure your hands are clean,” Morse says. Wash your hands with soap and water or use hand sanitizer at all the normal times, he says.
For example, wash your hands after going to the bathroom; after touching garbage; and before, during and after food prep. “Also after you touch something on the outside and you come back inside,” he says. That includes touching doorknobs, opening packages or pressing elevator buttons.
Wearing gloves may give you a false sense of security, Vinetz says. If you do wear gloves, you should assume that your hands are dirty, and avoid touching your face. “If anybody is wearing gloves, I look at them and say, ‘You’re contaminated, don’t touch anything,’” he says.
Be strategic about running errands
When you’re running essential errands or frequenting businesses as they begin to open, you should still be extra careful.
For starters, you definitely shouldn’t be venturing out if you’re sick, according to the CDC.
Take fewer trips to the store to reduce the amount of exposure you have to other people, and order your food and medication for delivery if possible (and don’t accept deliveries in-person), per the CDC. Opt to pay for your items online or over the phone, and use a contactless payment method if you can.
If you do go to the store, stay at least six feet from other people and wear a cloth face covering or mask, the CDC says. Some stores have delineated a “safe distance” on the floor in checkout lines, and wipes available for patrons to disinfect shopping carts. But even still, you should not touch your eyes, nose or mouth throughout the duration of your trip.
Once you’re finished shopping, use hand sanitizer and wash your hands with soap and water when you’re home.
Handle packages and groceries gingerly
Many people are relying on deliveries to get their groceries and other supplies with minimal contact. But there’s evidence that the Covid-19 virus can survive on surfaces for hours to days.
When you get a package or bring home a shopping bag, Morse suggests opening it outside of your home. “Leave it outside the door, and then with clean hands, I would lift out the things that were inside,” he says. If the contents look like they need to be cleaned, you can wipe them with a disinfectant, he says, but it’s not totally necessary.
Put the items on a surface that you can clean easily afterwards, and of course wash your hands, Morse says. “There’s only so much you can do, you know, within reason,” he says.
Follow elevator etiquette
Riding the elevator with someone is a comparatively short time to be exposed to their germs, but you should still be mindful. “Minimize the number of people in an elevator,” Morse says. Elevators are slightly less crowded while people are staying home, so you should wait until you can catch a ride alone or with as few people as possible, he says. And wear a face mask while in the elevator, even if you’re riding solo.
Pressing buttons with a key or other inanimate object can’t hurt, but you still need to wash your hands when you come home, he adds.
Keep distance, even while at the park
Despite social distancing rules, there have been photos of groups of people congregating in very crowded parks, even in hot spots like New York City, that have caused concern.
It’s okay to go to parks or head outdoors for some relief, Vinetz says. “You’re outdoors with air movement, and very little density of people,” he says.
But you should still wear a mask when you’re outside, and stay physically distant from anyone you encounter, he says. If you’re getting together with friends or family outdoors, you must stay at least six feet apart, and be strict about it. Make sure your pals or family members have all been symptom-free for at least 14 days before you meet up.
If that’s not doable, then it’s best to stay home and consider a virtual hangout instead.
Flying during the pandemic? Here’s what you need to know
PUBLISHED SUN, MAY 24 20209:00 AM EDT
- Despite recent upticks, U.S. air travel demand is still down about 90% from a year ago.
- Airlines and the TSA are implementing new policies to lower the chances of spreading coronavirus.
- Travelers can expect to wear a mask on board, but social distancing on an aircraft is difficult.
Airline passengers this summer will face a host of new policies and procedures, and possibly a few packed flights, because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Memorial Day kicks off what is normally the busiest season for airlines, when airports are bustling and flights are often sold out. An uptick is occurring again this year, but the impact of the virus continues to keep demand far from usual levels.
The Transportation Security Administration said 348,673 people passed through security checkpoints at U.S. airports on Friday. That’s the highest in just over two months and more than three times the number of people from a month ago, but down 88% compared with the same day last year.
Airlines have scrambled to adapt to the new environment. The plunge in demand sapped them of revenue. Losing money for the first time in years, U.S. airlines have idled thousands of planes and slashed flights, in some destinations by around 90% of the norm, in a bid to reduce their cash burn. That means more connecting flights for many travelers used to the convenience of non-stops.
They have also implemented a number of new measures aimed at reducing contact between travelers, crews and other airport workers, an effort to ease concerns about the spread of Covid-19 during travel. Even aircraft manufacturer Boeing earlier this month announced a “Confident Travel” initiative to weigh new technology like ultraviolet light disinfecting systems that can help reduce the transmission of pathogens on board.
At the airport
The TSA last week issued new guidelines for passenger screenings this spring and summer to limit contact between its officers and travelers.
For example, travelers will scan their own paper or electronic boarding passes instead of handing them to a TSA officer. TSA also asks travelers to put food they’re bringing along into a clear plastic bag and remove that from their carry-on bags, so officers don’t have to remove it from a passenger’s bag if it sets off an alarm in the X-ray scanner. Phones, keys and wallets should go right into carry-on bags to “reduce touch-points during the screening process.”
TSA officers are required to wear face masks on the job and the agency encourages travelers to do the same.
Airlines are also making some changes before travelers reach their seats to try to protect travelers and crews. United Airlines has started using sneeze guards at check-in counters and other customer service areas. It has started rolling out touchless kiosks to print bag tags using a smartphone at some airports and expects to put more of them at airports around the U.S. in the coming weeks.
One of the biggest challenges of the Covid-19 crisis for air travel is that the authority over traveler health screenings isn’t clear.
Frontier Airlines says it plans to start taking travelers’ temperatures starting June 1 but most airlines have said it is the responsibility of the government to perform health screenings. Airline workers’ labor unions and some lawmakers have pushed for federal mandates — not just guidelines — for health precautions in air travel
The Department of Homeland Security, which includes TSA and customs, is exploring temperature checks and thermal scanning at airports “to see what we can do to provide some layer of security,” acting Department of Homeland Security Chad Wolf told the Dallas Morning News during a trip to Texas on Thursday. While Wolf said such measures won’t eliminate risks entirely, it can help “make sure that folks perhaps with elevated temperatures, perhaps they’re at the beginning of feeling sick, we can identify those individuals and not have them fly. But … it’s certainly not going to be a panacea.”
The union that represents TSA screeners has bristled at the possibility of passenger health checks, such as Covid-19 testing at the airport, telling CNBC last month that such exams would be “far from their duties and responsibilities.”
Airlines say their on-board air filters are highly effective at removing pathogens and that they have stepped up cleaning of aircraft, disinfecting surfaces and using devices like foggers to disinfect cabins. Last week, United said it will work with Clorox and the Cleveland Clinic to determine the best guidelines to disinfect surfaces on aircraft and in the airport.
Masks are becoming the norm, a trend that could last for months before a vaccine or treatment for Covid-19 is determined. Major U.S. airlines this month have started requiring that not only crew members but travelers also wear masks on board. They’re encouraging them to wear them in common spaces like departure halls and gate areas as well, in light of federal recommendations about reducing the spread of the disease.
But airline crews won’t force travelers to wear the masks, CNBC reported last week. A plane isn’t likely to divert if a passenger doesn’t comply. For example, JetBlue Airways told crew members that they should alert their colleagues on arrival if a passenger refuses to wear a mask and told flight attendants to “use your best judgement to uphold our service standards in order to minimize disruptions.”
Social distancing is extremely difficult on board in normal circumstances, but planes are flying emptier. The number of passengers last month fell to the lowest levels since the 1950s, before the jet age, according to Airlines for America, a trade group that represents carriers including American, Delta, United, Southwest and others. A4A estimates 73% of U.S. flights are less than half full.
I guess @united is relaxing their social distancing policy these days? Every seat full on this 737
But the surprise of seeing the occasional packed plane has angered travelers who were expecting more social distancing on board. A tweet from a passenger on a crowded United flight from San Francisco to Newark earlier this month was shared thousands of times. It prompted United to introduce a new policy that informs travelers if their flight is more than 70% full, but spokesman Charlie Hobart said 85% of the airline’s flights are less than half full.
Delta, for its part, said it plans to add 100 flights next month and will keep planes no more than 60% full. American also said it limits capacity and on Friday, its flights were an average of two-thirds full, an internal document showed.
JetBlue says it will block middle seats on its Airbus planes, with the exception of parties traveling together, through at least July 6, while Southwest will also limit capacity on its flights through the middle of the summer.
“So you won’t see full flights on Southwest, at least through the end of July,” CEO Gary Kelly told investors last week. “And if we do have more demand for that flight, we’ll also add additional flights to meet that demand.”
There is no bulletproof method, however, experts have warned.
Traveling now is an “intensely personal decision,” said Brett Snyder, a former airline manager, who runs an air travel assistance company, Cranky Concierge, and writes the Cranky Flier blog. “Ultimately, you’ll never be able to socially distance if you’re traveling by air.”
Trump says he won’t close the country if second wave of coronavirus hits
PUBLISHED THU, MAY 21 20204:46 PM EDTUPDATED THU, MAY 21 20205:40 PM EDT
- President Donald Trump said “we are not closing our country” if the U.S. is hit by a second wave of coronavirus infections.
- “People say that’s a very distinct possibility, it’s standard,” Trump said when asked about a second wave during a tour of a Ford factory in Michigan.
- “We are going to put out the fires. We’re not going to close the country,” Trump said. “We can put out the fires. Whether it is an ember or a flame, we are going to put it out. But we are not closing our country.”
President Donald Trump on Thursday said “we are not closing our country” if the U.S. is hit by a second wave of coronavirus infections.
“People say that’s a very distinct possibility, it’s standard,” Trump said when asked about a second wave during a tour of a Ford factory in Michigan.
“We are going to put out the fires. We’re not going to close the country,” Trump said. “We can put out the fires. Whether it is an ember or a flame, we are going to put it out. But we are not closing our country.”
Trump has previously said there may be “embers” of the pandemic that persist in the U.S. past the summer, but he maintains that they will be stamped out. Health experts, including those in the Trump administration, have said that the virus will likely continue to spread through the fall and winter, and may become even more difficult to combat once flu season begins.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, told The Washington Post this week that he has “no doubt” there will be new waves of cases.
“The virus is not going to disappear,” he told Post. “It’s a highly transmissible virus. At any given time, it’s some place or another. As long as that’s the case, there’s a risk of resurgence.”
State leaders, not the federal government, have imposed harsh restrictions on residents and businesses to try to slow the spread of the disease. But with the U.S. economy straining under the social distancing rules, Trump has loudly called on the country to begin the reopening process.
All 50 states have now begun some level of reopening – including New York, the epicenter of the crisis in the U.S. – even as cases continue to rise in some parts of the country.
Trump did not wear a mask while touring Ford Motor Co.’s Rawsonville Components Plant in Ypsilanti, despite a state law and company policy requiring facial coverings there. The plant is currently making ventilators in response to the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States.
The outbreak, which began near the Chinese city of Wuhan, has spread around the globe, with more than 5 million cases confirmed worldwide and over 328,471 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
There are at least 1.5 million cases and at least 93,439 deaths from the disease in the United States, according to the latest tallies from Johns Hopkins.
Trump is determined to revive the economy as he tries to convince voters to give him four more years in the White House. More than 38 million U.S. workers have filed unemployment claims in the past nine weeks as businesses shuttered amid the pandemic.
But markets have experienced a booming rally this week, amid optimistic news about vaccine development and a growing sense from some public figures that the country has turned a corner in its fight against Covid-19.
U.S.-China tensions are flaring on a new front: the financial markets
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 22 202012:30 AM EDT
- The U.S. Senate passed legislation on Wednesday that could restrict Chinese companies from listing on American exchanges or raise money from U.S. investors, unless they abide by Washington’s regulatory and audit standards.
- That pressure on Chinese companies would inevitably cause more mainland firms to list elsewhere, analysts say.
- Chinese tech giant Baidu said Thursday in an interview with China Daily that it is “discussing options” such as a secondary listing in Hong Kong or other places.
Already bad friction between the U.S. and China has ratcheted higher in recent weeks, and now it’s expanded onto another front: the stock market.
As the coronavirus crisis draws on, the relationship has gotten more strained, with each country blaming the other about the true extent and origin of the coronavirus outbreak. U.S. President Donald Trump also threatened tariffs on China again this month.
In the latest move, the U.S. Senate passed legislation on Wednesday that could restrict Chinese companies from listing on American exchanges or raise money from U.S. investors, unless they abide by Washington’s regulatory and audit standards.
Though the law could be applied to any foreign company that seeks access to U.S. money, lawmakers say the move is targeted at Beijing. U.S.-listed shares of Chinese tech giant Alibaba dropped more than 2% on that news.
That issue is set to remain contentious, analysts say, as U.S.-China tensions take center stage — ahead of the U.S. presidential elections in November, where U.S. President Donald Trump will try to hold onto the White House.
“In the past several months, US politicians proposed to delist Chinese companies from US stock exchanges with different criteria, and cap Americans’ exposure to the Chinese market,” analysts from investment bank China Renaissance wrote in a Thursday note. “We expect the debate to remain among the top topics of the 2020 US presidential election.”
Louisiana Republican Sen. John Kennedy, who sponsored the bill, would require companies to certify that “they are not owned or controlled by a foreign government.”
“The Chinese Communist Party cheats, and the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act would stop them from cheating on U.S. stock exchanges,” Kennedy, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, had tweeted.
According to China Renaissance, apart from the delisting of Chinese companies, other actions the U.S. could take would include capping Americans’ exposure to the Chinese market through government pension funds, and putting limits on the Chinese companies included in stock indices managed by U.S. firms.
That pressure would inevitably cause more Chinese firms to go elsewhere, analysts say. Many of them have traditionally flocked to list in the U.S. because of the associated prestige, as well as a more attractive environment with better valuations and a more knowledgeable investor base.
“This would definitely drive more Chinese companies to list in the greater China area,” said Tianjun Wu, deputy economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
More Chinese companies will flock to Hong Kong
Even as the U.S. is tightening rules, Hong Kong has been making it easier for companies with primary listings elsewhere — such as the U.S. — to list on its stock exchange.
Just this week, Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng index made a major change which paved the way for China’s tech giants to expand their trading presence in Asia and give more investors access to their stocks.
The Hang Seng index will for the first time allow companies with primary listings elsewhere, as well as those with dual-class shares, to be included in the 50-year-old benchmark. That followed a similar move by the city’s stock exchange in 2018 to also allow secondary listings.
More U.S.-listed Chinese companies are likely to take advantage of the easing to plan secondary listings in Hong Kong, says investment bank Morgan Stanley in a Monday report.
It pointed out that a number of such companies, such as JD.com and Trip.com, are reportedly already planning secondary listings in the Chinese city. Morgan Stanley says it expects this trend to continue, given the increased American scrutiny on Chinese companies.
Chinese tech giant Baidu said Thursday in an interview with China Daily that it is “discussing options” such as a secondary listing in Hong Kong or other places.
“Our basic judgement is, if it’s a good company, there are many options for places to list. It’s not limited to the U.S., so we aren’t that worried that pressure from the U.S. government will cause irreparable damage to the company’s business,” said Baidu CEO Robin Li in that interview, according to a CNBC translation.
According to data from Chinese Renaissance, 36 Chinese firms listed in the U.S. qualifies for a secondary listing in Hong Kong.
Chinese companies could lose ‘brand premium’
As a start, Hong Kong is set to benefit from such developments, with more money flowing into the markets there.
“This trend should help retain and attract more capital inflow into the Hong Kong market in the long run and help strengthen a more Asia-based trading and investment base for Chinese companies,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a Monday report.
But Chinese firms could suffer from the less immediate trade-offs eventually.
“For the Chinese business, that would mean losing a brand premium of being listed in the US. The US stock market has long been viewed as much more transparent than the local markets” in greater China, said Wu of the EIU.
As for retail investors in the U.S., they could have “less accessible methods” to gain exposure to investments in Chinese firms, he said.