MidWeek Commentary

HI Market View Commentary 01-13-2020

HI Market View Commentary 01-13-2020

What I want to talk about today?

S.M.A.R.T. GOALS – A must read

As a Registered Investment Adviser I’ve heard two questions over and over again in the last couple of weeks.
What do you think the market will do in 2020? – What are your goals for 2020?

LET’S TALK ABOUT GOALS !!!

Both questions are intertwined and here is my “two cents”. I believe more people will lose money in 2020 as they set unrealistic goals to make an unrealistic return trying to beat 2019 S&P 500 returns.  Ego loses people money just as easily as fear and greed. There are no guarantees in the market and there is no proof the market will bounce back next year. It would be great to make back everything you’ve lost but a profit is still a profit. You don’t go broke by taking profits! You don’t go broke by collar trading!   I would hate to see anyone in the market think they know more than the market does and try to outguess the market. It just doesn’t make any sense at all to put on risky trades to make back what you’ve lost in a week, month or last year? Let me introduce you to the idea behind being S.M.A.R.T. in your goal setting.

  1. – Simple, Specific, Schedule – Keep it simple stupid just like old acronym says – KISS. Set a simple return just like you set your primary exits in your trade. Decide on a specific amount (I will talk about this later) and write it down. Schedule it in your planner! Remember your schedule is to make that return over a year’s period not in the month of Jan or in the first half of the year. Make sure you see your goal on a daily basis as you check you schedule on a daily basis.
  2. M – Measurable – Most people set what is called a “pinpoint” goal. We might decide that we want to make a simple market average return of 7% in a 1 year period. What happens in real life? We hit the goal and then we Quit or Stop trying as hard. Set a range goal. Maybe you always want a minimum return of 7%ish so set your goal to be between 7% to 20%. On the bullish years 7% is easy so I set a goal so If you do make it you still have something to shoot for.
  3. A – Attainable – Make a plan to how you will attain your goals. Start this step by asking yourself what or who do you want to become? ie… a better trader, a full timetrade, a stay at home dad, a millionaire. Too may people at the start of every year write down a wish list not a goal. I wish at the end of the year I can make this amount of money or lose this amount of weight. How will you do it and what will you do to get there? How much of your portfolio will be safe in collar trades? How much will be pure option strategies? How much will you use for vegas trades? Will you use margin to reach your goals? Figure out the details to how you will get to where you want to be at. Start with the end of the year goal on Dec 31st and walk yourself backwards.
  4. R – Realistic, Relevant – I always want to make a 50% return or more. Some years like this past year I wasn’t quite close to being at that goal. What happens in real life? We are nowhere close to our goal and we quit. We give up on the whole thing because we will never hit the goal. Step by step progression in trading is fine and make sure your goals remain relevant throughout the whole year. Don’t forget goals can be adjusted like a trade that may go south. S&P Ave 7.74
  5. T – Time – Set the time period that you want to accomplish your goals. Set short term, intermediate, long term, and life long goals you want to reach and hold your self accountable. Let others know the time period you expect to reach your goals and get the support needed to get there. Whether it is between you and your spouse, your kids, your parents, your education programor maybe the good Lord himself, find support during the tough times. I promise you they will come.

 

Conservative Trades (Perhaps 70% of your portfolio):

Cash or T-Bills –

Collar Trades –

Protective Puts (also known as Married Puts) –

Covered Calls with Long puts or DITM

Equities –

Medium Risk Trades (Perhaps 20% of your trades):

Bull Put –

Put Calendar –

Call Calendars –

Straddles / Strangles as a volatility play –

Put and / or Call Ratio Backspreads –

Winged Spreads –

Bull Calls (standard application) –

Bear Puts (standard application) –

Straddle / Strangle

Bear Calls –

High Risk Trades (Perhaps 10% or less)

Long Calls or Long Puts (as a non-hedged directional trade) –

Naked Short Put –

Naked Short Call – NEVER DO THIS UNLESS YOU ARE WILLING TO RISK AND LOSE EVERYTHING

Vegas Trades (Outside the box trades) –

  

New equity positions for 2020 that I am looking at – KEY, FCX, MU, MRO, SBUX, WBA, CVS

I still like my favorites – AAPL, BIDU, BAC, ZION, DIS, F, & V,

BA & UAA Are my wildcards

For smaller accounts following the SPY, QQQ, DIA, IBB, XLF, XLE

 

So Let’s Talk about 2020?

Election Year

Tax Selling in April

Look for a correction 10% or short term bear market 20%

More volatility than last year !!!  Short positions should garner more credit

Bigger drops on a 10 year run on the stock market = More profits to be taken

 

I think it’s guidance, earnings, global growth and cash on the sidelines pouring back into the market

 

Where will our markets end this week?

Higher

 

DJIA – Bullish

SPX – Bullish

 

COMP – Bullish

Where Will the SPX end January 2020?

01-13-2019             +2.0%

01-06-2018            +2.0%

 

 

Earnings:   

Mon:           

Tues:            C, DAL, WFC, UAL, JPM

Wed:            GS, USB, UNH, FUL, AA, KMI, BAC

Thur:           BLK, FAST, MS, CSX, SCHW

Fri:              FHN, SLB

 

Econ Reports:

Mon:            Treasury Budget

Tues:            CPI, Core CPI, NFIB Small Business Optimism

Wed:            MBA, PPI, Core PPI, Empire

Thur:           Initial, Continuing, Import, Export, Phil Fed, Retail Sales, Retail Ex-auto, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Price index, Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Fri:               Building Permits, Housing Starts, Michigan Sentiment, Capacity Utilization, Industry Production  

 

Int’l:

Mon:

Tues –         

Wed –         

Thursday –  

Friday-       

Sunday –       

 

How am I looking to trade?

 Earnings are coming up and protecting through earnings with protective puts and NO short Calls

AAPL – 1/28 AMC

AOBC – 3/05 est

BA – 1/29 BMO

BIDU – 2/20 est

CVS – 2/12 BMO

DIS – 2/04 AMC

F – 1/23 AMC

FB – 1/29 AMC

FCX – 1/23 BMO

KEY – 1/23 BMO

IBB

LLY 1/30 BMO

MRO – 2/12 AMC

MU – 3/19 est

OIH

NEM – 2/20 BMO

SLB 1/17 BMO

TGT – 3/03 est

UAA – 2/13 est

V – 1/29 est

ZION – 1/21 AMC

 

 

 

 

 

www.hurleyinvestments.com 

www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite

customerservice@hurleyinvestments.com = Email

 

Questions???

 

 

http://go.ycharts.com/weekly-pulse?utm_campaign=Pulse&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=81817493&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8WJB85QQdE-pxfGrfIyUIAml9vJXeBhQ-Fad5nHDEXhtaQgaP_qmk_p7J-ETVdBYYZnJv3SEeaHQfjvqbTkV-_BmSX3BMNZJxvP0YujcSnUNMC9zc&_hsmi=81817493

YCharts Weekly Market Pulse

 

Market Recap
WEEK OF JAN. 6 THROUGH JAN. 10, 2020
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.9% in its first full week of 2020, with the advance led by the technology and communication services sectors amid easing fears over the conflict between the US and Iran.

The market benchmark ended the week at 3,265.35, up from last Friday’s closing level of 3,234.85. The index also reached a fresh intraday high in Friday’s session at 3,282.99.

This week’s gain marks a resumption of the upward trend the market had been on prior to last week’s US airstrike in Baghdad that killed Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani. The S&P 500 had slipped 0.2% last week amid worries about the fallout of the airstrike, which marked the index’s first week in the red in six weeks, but it bounced back from that this week as investors’ concerns about the geopolitical tensions appeared to wane while economic data and corporate news moved back into focus.

In the latest round of economic data, the Labor Department on Friday reported 145,000 job additions in December while the unemployment rate stayed at a 50-year low of 3.5%. However, the data was met with mixed reactions as the size of the December job gain was below expectations for an increase of 158,000, while investors also noted a 2.9% increase in wages marked the smallest year-over-year gain since July 2018.

The S&P 500’s weekly advance was led by a 2.5% jump in technology and a 2.4% rise in communication services. Four sectors ended the week in the red, led by energy, which slid 1.1% amid a drop in crude oil futures to levels last seen before the US airstrike. The other decliners were materials, which slipped 0.3%, and industrials and financials, which edged down 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

The technology sector’s gainers included Salesforce.com (CRM), whose shares jumped 8.3% this week amid bullish analyst reports on the stock this week from RBC Capital Markets and Wedbush. RBC upgraded its investment rating on the cloud-based software company’s stock to top pick from outperform, saying it sees “significant upside potential” for the stock in 2020. RBC also raised its price target on Salesforce.com’s stock to $215 per share from $200. Wedbush, meanwhile, named Salesforce.com as one of its top picks in enterprise software for 2020.

In communication services, shares of Facebook (FB) also benefitted from bullish analyst views, rising 4.5% on the week. Canaccord said it sees “compelling growth opportunities” in 2020 for internet stocks, adding that with 2020 being an election year, Facebook is bound to benefit from political ad spending. Meanwhile, Bernstein initiated coverage of Facebook with an outperform investment rating and a $250 price target, while the stock received boosts to its price targets from Cowen and Bank of America Securities.

On the downside, the energy sector’s decliners included Noble Energy (NBL), whose shares fell 6.2% this week as Tudor Pickering Holt downgraded its investment rating on the stock to hold from buy. The firm cited valuation after Noble Energy’s stock jumped 32% in 2019, making it the best performing explorer and producer in Tudor Pickering Holt’s coverage for the year. The firm also warned clients that “successful execution on major milestones means that key catalysts (midstream review, Levi start-up) are now in the rear view.”

Provided by MT Newswires.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/19/art-cashins-predictions-for-2020-including-more-wins-for-stocks.html

 

NYSE legend Art Cashin, who got much of 2019 right, gives his predictions for the new year

PUBLISHED THU, DEC 19 20197:35 AM ESTUPDATED THU, DEC 19 201910:54 AM EST

Bob Pisani@BOBPISANI

KEY POINTS

  • Art Cashin, managing director of UBS Financial Services, offers his predictions for 2020.
  • Stocks will see continued gains, but expect volatility, Cashin predicts.
  • Despite a still strong U.S. economy, there will be no Fed rate hikes in the next year, he says.

We sat down with Art Cashin, managing director of UBS Financial Services who’s patrolled the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for more than 50 years, at Bobby Van’s Steakhouse to chat about what’s ahead in 2020.

Here are three predictions the veteran Wall Street trader offered for 2020:

Prediction one: Despite a still strong U.S. economy, there will be no Fed rate hikes in the next year.

“I think the Fed is somewhat intimidated by the market. … And the market, if anything, thinks the Fed is ahead of itself on higher rates.”

Prediction two: The market winning streak will continue and the broader indexes will be up in 2020.

“Eight out of nine times that we’ve had an up year like we had this year, it’s followed by another decent up year. Not quite as strong, but still strong, and so I’ll go with history.”

Prediction three: Stocks may be up, but there will be several periods of volatility, particularly in January, March and July.

“In late January, we’ll get to see if there’s going to be a Brexit now that [Prime Minister Boris] Johnson got a sweeping move in Parliament. And will he, in fact, push through a no-deal Brexit? That could make the markets very volatile and jumpy. The next thing will be the U.S. election. Number one, in early March, we will get Super Tuesday, and one-third of the U.S. populace will vote. And we’ll get to find out where [Democat Mike] Bloomberg’s strategy is. Who looks to be the leader? Has anybody locked it up? If not, then it could be a brokered convention, and that date would be in the middle of July, when the convention will be.”

So how did Cashin do with his 2019 predictions?

Prediction one: No Fed rate hikes in 2019 — Correct.

Prediction two: A final China deal on trade and tariffs was unlikely but something that approximates it may happen — Right again.

Prediction three: Stocks will be flat in 2019 after being down in the first half of the year — Whoops. The S&P is up 28% this year, it’s best year since 2013. Still, two out of three isn’t bad.

Watch the video above for the full conversation.

 

 

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/31/goldman-sachs-is-saying-the-economy-is-nearly-recession-proof.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

 

Don’t look now, but Goldman Sachs is saying the economy is nearly recession-proof

PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 31 201911:56 AM ESTUPDATED THU, JAN 2 20209:07 AM EST

Jeff Cox@JEFF.COX.7528@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

KEY POINTS

  • The U.S. economy is “structurally less recession-prone today,” Goldman Sachs economists said.
  • That calls comes just months after Wall Street feared that an inverted yield curve was signaling an imminent recession.
  • Goldman cites five factors that pose a reduced threat to the “Great Moderation” that began more than 30 years ago and was interrupted only by the financial crisis.

Just months after almost everyone on Wall Street worried that a recession was just around the corner, Goldman Sachs said a downturn is unlikely over the next several years.

In fact, the firm’s economists stopped just short of saying that the U.S. economy is recession-proof.

An analysis Goldman conducted of the current potential risks to growth show that they are mostly muted. The report found that the pillars of the “Great Moderation” that began in the 1980s — low levels of volatility marked by sustainable growth and muted inflation, interrupted only by the financial crisis more than a decade ago — are still standing.

Investors could be excused for getting a little nervous over such calls, as optimism also was heavy in late 2007, just as the economy was about to enter the worst of the financial crisis.

“Overall, the changes underlying the Great Moderation appear intact, and we see the economy as structurally less recession-prone today,” Goldman economists Jan Hatzius and David Mericle wrote. “While new risks could emerge, none of the main sources of recent recessions — oil shocks, inflationary overheating, and financial imbalances — seem too concerning for now. As a result, the prospects for a soft landing look better than widely thought.”

That view is a sea change from some of the fears that permeated Wall Street in late summer and early fall.

Worries surged that the U.S.-China trade war, global economic weakness, and geopolitical risks from Brexit and other sources would act as severe drags on growth.

A yield curve inversion, or a point where short-term government bond yields rise above their longer-duration counterparts, helped stoke those fears. An inversion has correctly predicted each of the last seven recessions, and in August a New York Fed indicator that tracks the yield curve put risk of a downturn at 38%, the highest since the financial crisis.

However, those fears have ebbed as the tariff rhetoric has cooled and the yield curve has reverted. The New York Fed tracker now puts recession risk over the next 12 months at just 24.6%, about where it was in February.

The optimism of 2007

Goldman’s economists do not dismiss the risk of a recession, but say some of the major headwinds have dissipated.

The U.S. has become largely energy independent, Federal Reserve officials have been more vexed by a lack of inflation, and the financial system has become less levered since the crisis due to a sharp deceleration in private sector debt compared to income and more stringent regulations in the banking system.

However, elevated asset prices in stocks and a surge in corporate debt remain threats. The fifth risk that Goldman identifies, fiscal policy, is generally linked to spending cuts after big events like wars, though “new risks could emerge in an era of political polarization, uncertainty, and dysfunction,” Hatzius and Mericle wrote.

To be sure, there’s danger in becoming too sanguine about the economy.

GDP grew at a 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter of 2007 before plummeting to an 8.4% decline in the third quarter of 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed and triggered a crisis that nearly crushed the entire global financial system. Goldman itself in late 2007 predicted double-digit percent gains for the stock market in 2008, a year during which the S&P 500 tumbled 37% for its worst performance since 1931.

Indeed, Goldman’s relatively rosy view now is better than the Wall Street consensus.

“A potentially toxic confluence of factors continues to unfold next year: tight labor markets, easy policy, institutional risk tolerance, as well as potential further fiscal stimulus and certain debt growth,” Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, chief economist at AB Bernstein, said in a look-ahead note earlier this month. “These are fertile conditions for structural risks to build in the medium-term.”

Still, Carlsson-Szlezak concurs that at least structurally, the “soft landing” scenario rather than a hard crash to the expansion is most likely.

Accommodative Fed policy, including three interest rate cuts in 2019, have helped soothe investors’ jangled nerves. Ahead for 2020, though, are more trade headlines, what promises to be a contentious presidential election and continued geopolitical headwinds.

“We think the prospects for a soft landing in the next few years are better than widely thought, and considerably better than the historical odds would suggest this deep into an expansion,” Hatzius and Mericle wrote.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/11/wall-street-strategists-recommend-stable-dividend-paying-investments.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

Dividend stocks look attractive with a volatile year that nets measly returns expected ahead

PUBLISHED SAT, JAN 11 20208:18 AM ESTUPDATED SAT, JAN 11 20209:00 AM EST

Yun Li@YUNLI626

KEY POINTS

  • Unlike growth stocks, dividend stocks typically don’t offer dramatic price appreciation, but they do provide investors with a steady stream of income.
  • This type of strategy can bode well for investors in a much riskier year ahead grappling with Middle East unrest and a U.S. presidential election.
  • Wall Street market analysts largely see much more modest returns in 2020 following a historic run last year. The average year-end target for the S&P 500 comes to 3,345, a measly 2% gain.
  • A slew of banks including Goldman, UBS and Bank of America started advising clients to shift to dividend-paying stocks and strategies to hedge against rising risks and seek outperformance.

Stocks may be at record highs, but 2020 has already proven to be a volatile year, leading a growing cohort of Wall Street strategists to recommend stable dividend-paying investments.

Favorite names recommended by the banks include Citgroup, Verizon and Cisco. There are also a bevy of exchange-traded funds which track the style.

Unlike growth stocks that have led the market’s record-long bull run, dividend stocks typically don’t offer dramatic price appreciation, but they do provide investors with a steady stream of income. This type of strategy can bode well for investors in a much riskier year ahead grappling with Middle East unrest, more China trade talks and a U.S. presidential election.

“Dividend strategies have increasingly become top of mind for investors that want to participate in the up market that continues but they want to be prepared for the volatility that feels like is around the corner,” said Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF & mutual fund research at CFRA.

Wall Street analysts largely see much more modest returns in 2020 following a historic run last year that saw the S&P 500 soaring nearly 29%. The average year-end target for the benchmark comes to 3,345, a measly 2% gain, according to CNBC’s Market Strategist Survey. In comparison, a popular dividend-focused exchange-traded fund — iShares Select Dividend ETF — currently has a dividend yield of 3.6%.

“If returns are more muted, the income component of the total return is going to play a more meaningful role,” Rosenbluth said.

Time to shift

Since the end of 2019, a slew of top financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, UBS and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have started advising clients to buy dividend-paying stocks and strategies to hedge against rising risks and an aging bull market.

Investors seem to have already warmed to the idea. In the fourth quarter alone, dividend ETFs experienced more than $10 billion in new money, which was more than any other factor-oriented strategies, according to data from CFRA. The inflows came even as the stock market rallied into the year-end, a sign that investors were getting nervous.

“How to hedge against things going wrong? We now prefer utilities (pure domestic, stable earnings) over staples as a way to generate high dividend,” Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, said in her “year ahead” outlook.

UBS warned clients of a continued slowdown in the economy last month and screened for a handful of dividend growers to combat that.

Stocks with the fastest dividend growth include Citigroup, pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly and medical equipment and drug producer Baxter, UBS said.

There are a variety of ETFs on the market that lump a bunch of high-dividend stocks together. Below are the top five dividend-focused ETFs arranged by assets, according to ETF.com.

‘Low-for-longer interest rates’

Adding to dividend strategies’ appeal is how low interest rates are, which makes bonds less attractive to investors seeking income. The Federal Reserve slashed borrowing cost three times in 2019, pushing 10-year Treasurys below 2% and lower than the S&P 500′s dividend yield of 2.1% last year.

“Low-for-longer interest rates are a reality, no longer a forecast,” Steven Major, HSBC’s global head of fixed income research, said in note. “The decade of denial saw expectations of cyclical recovery often disappointed and a similarly misplaced belief in the view that bond yields would rise.”

In an environment of disappearing yields, Goldman started touting its dividend growth basket as one of its two recommended strategies in 2020, which “offers longer-term investors a premium yield while positioning for a value rotation.” The basket has a dividend yield of 3.6% and twice the S&P 500′s dividend growth through 2021, Goldman said.

Stocks in the Goldman portfolio include AT&TVerizonMorgan StanleyAmgen and Cisco.

Record payments

Time could be ripe for dividend stocks to stage a comeback after a decade of underperformance. They have trailed the S&P 500 consistently for the past 10 years as growth stocks with rapid profit increases have enjoyed most of the love.

Last year, stocks with the highest dividend yields underperformed stocks with low or no yields as the S&P 500 notched its best annual performance in six years, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Meanwhile, dividend issuance is showing no signs of slowing. S&P 500 stockholders received a record amount of dividends in the fourth quarter of 2019, totaling $126.4 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The amount was a 5.5% increase from the same quarter in 2018.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Nate Rattner contributed to this report.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315613-microns-x100-will-drop-like-bomb-on-intel-data-center?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

Micron’s X100 Will Drop Like A Bomb On The Intel Data Center

Jan. 7, 2020 12:22 PM ET

Stephen Breezy

Summary

Micron’s X100 (3DXP) photos reveal that it is very much a pre-production part.

The patents and limited specifications reveal a tremendous advantage over Intel.

AMD, Nvidia, IBM, ARM, Xilinx, and others will benefit directly as the X100 marshals them into the data center with force.

Last October, just moments after closing out their acquisition of Intel’s (INTC) half of the IMFT joint venture, but more than four years after the announcement of 3D XPoint, Micron (MU) finally revealed the shape of their initial product offering – the X100. Micron

As is par for the course on 3D XPoint (“3DXP”) tech, we didn’t get a lot of detail in terms of specifications outside of some performance numbers and the fact that it will sit on the very stale PCI Express (“PCIe”) 3.0 interface with the local host system (i.e. the server into which the part is directly installed).

Although the limited specifications reveal that it yields, by far, the highest performance for any device of its kind (“too good to be true”), most people seemed to be distracted by this PCIe 3.0 specification. I believe this to be an effort to sandbag the product – misdirect people of its true Earth-shaking implications – for now. The patents and photos reveal some curious information which back up this hypothesis.

Strange Things Are Afoot at the Circle K

Since 2015, investors have been left to wonder when Micron would release a 3DXP product, which they had branded as “QuantX” only to abandon that marketing. Neither here nor there, Micron did reveal a very pre-production QuantX prototype back in 2016 (to clarify, this is not the X100 part that was recently announced):

Flash Memory Summit 2016

With just four packages of 3DXP (two each, visible on each of the daughter boards on the left and right of the card), Micron was able to squeeze unprecedented performance out of just 128 gigabytes of storage – much better than that of the Intel Optane products, even those that are shipping today (despite the latter having 14 times as many 3DXP packages on-board).

This tremendous performance advantage of the Micron prototype was due to the fact that it has a DRAM cache, with five chips visible just to the right of the fan-covered controller in the center of the card. Although all of today’s high-performance flash storage products include a DRAM cache in order to facilitate good performance, Intel opted to forgo a DRAM cache on their Optane products because it doesn’t align with their strategy of processor-centric computing.

Intel’s duty is and has always been to sell and promote products which are centered around their high-margin CPUs. They have always been fighting in order to maintain the requirement of a high-powered processor at the center of the computing industry. For example, nearly two decades ago, Microsoft (MSFT) had opted to deprecate USB support in order to focus on Apple’s (AAPL) competing Firewire standard.

The major difference between the two standards is that USB offloads most of the processing duties to the CPU while Firewire is free to allocate bandwidth intelligently without CPU arbitration – not good for Intel. Whether through hook or through crook, Intel managed to kill off Firewire, placing USB back on top of the external peripheral interface mountain. This angered many of those in the industry who knew better.

All too conveniently, as Apple dropped their pursuit of Firewire, they started working with Intel on the “Thunderbolt” interface, which has already been adopted for the upcoming USB 4.0 standard. The point that I am trying to make is that, if Intel had not been fighting so furiously against intelligent computing architecture, technology would be a lot better than it is today.

For example, PCIe 4.0 should have been out long ago – we should be on PCIe 5.0 by now if the industry had leveraged their standard cadence instead of giving in to Intel’s delay tactics.

The Times They Are a-Changin’

But this is finally about to change. You see, Intel didn’t put a DRAM cache on the Optane products because they didn’t want to give away their performance advantage – you’ll need to buy an Intel platform with Optane DC persistent memory support in order for that to happen. That is, an Intel processor caches hot data to DRAM DIMMs that are plugged into the processor – very fast. As the data is quiesced, it is migrated down to Optane DC DIMMs (also plugged into the processor) and then, eventually, to Optane SSDs and 3D NAND flash.

Don’t get me wrong – if money is no object, then you’ll be purchasing an Intel-based data center for the foreseeable future. But, once Micron’s X100 finally reaches production, this lead will begin to erode. Just realize that the Micron part represents everything that Intel has been trying to fight for the past couple of decades – distributed, near-data computing. Before I go into detail, let’s take a look at the photos of the recently announced Micron X100.

Although Micron gussied-up the part with a nice shroud in order to make it look like a commercially-ready part, it is not. The first hint is this scissor-cut cardstock that has been glued to the top of the device, with the rough edges visible in the photo above. The second hint is that 8-pin auxiliary power connector, which would only be requisite for a power requirements in excess of the standard 75 watts that is provided through the card’s PCIe connection.

The third, fourth, and fifth hints are much more subtle:

Although Micron wouldn’t allow anyone to look under the hood on the topside of the device, they did allow journalists to inspect the backside of the device where there is much information to be gleaned. First of all, there are four cooling fan screws that flank the “controller”. I use the quotes because that is the lowest common denominator here.

However, this controller is likely an FPGA – probably Xilinx (XLNX), since Micron seems to be favoring them versus Intel’s Altera FPGA devices. For the non-technical, just think of an FPGA as a processor which arrives to the customer as a bunch of reconfigurable, soft clay transistors. FPGAs are very good for developing, debugging, and proving circuit designs in the field before making a huge investment in the hard – but much cheaper – clay that is the typical silicon chip.

The trade-off is that of density, cost, and energy consumption: FPGAs are very low-density, expensive, and power-hungry. If my hunch about the X100 is correct, then you’re looking at 5 figures for the FPGA alone – hence my guess that this isn’t a production part yet. Take a look at a Xilinx FPGA development board, for example:

Viper Platform

Please note the presence of the four through-holes for the FPGA cooling fan as well as the requisite auxiliary power connector for such a high-power FPGA application. During the announcement, Micron representatives indicated that this would be a passively-cooled device (i.e. no cooling fans present). That isn’t going to be possible with such a card running beyond 75 watts.

The fifth hint is that the demo X100 device is a full-height model, which contrasts with their stated goal of a half-height, half-length (HHHL) platform (which is becoming the industry standard). Here’s a photo of Intel’s HHHL Optane form factor, for example:

Moving back to the final hint, we need to revisit Micron’s initial 2016 QuantX reveal:

Flash Memory Summit 2016

Back then, Micron representatives pointed out that they were targeting the “data-over-fabrics” data center architecture. And so there are a couple of fabric ports on the steel mounting plate on the initial prototype (both QSFP+ as well as standard Ethernet).

At the data rates that we are seeing today (>50Gbps), high-precision pluggable ports are displacing traditional low-precision plastic Ethernet connections. So I expected to see such a port on the X100. While there is a small port on the device, it appears to be a debugging port. In the X100 backside photo a few photos up, I have annotated the 3DXP packages in orange.

These are crowding the area where the fabric connectors would normally appear (see the large silver connections on the left side of Bittware photo above for an idea of how much space is consumed by such connections). Adding it all up, it is safe to say that the demo X100 device is not yet representative of what will appear as the final commercial product.

Conclusion: A Fox Knows Many Things

The manner in which Micron has disclosed the X100 – with some very specific performance figures and demonstrations – leads me to believe that they’re confident with the design and have sent the FPGA controller design off to the fab in order to be thrown into the silicon kiln so that it can be affordably mass produced with low power consumption.

Micron appears to have been very clever in allowing Intel to take the brunt of the work in developing 3DXP into a profitable, production-ready technology. But then they called Intel’s half of IMFT at cost – they stole it. The X100 demo revealed that Micron is decidedly planning to release a device

PCIe 3.0 has nothing to do with Micron’s X100 right now. They will be releasing their 3DXP data center parts as fabric devices: probably Gen-Z, but they are a member of all of the anti-Intel Omni-Path industry alliances. Gen-Z, for example, is both a point-to-point (i.e. replacing PCIe & NVMe) as well as a fabric-switched (i.e. replacing Ethernet & NVMeOF) protocol – completely device and manufacturer agnostic. In order to access data in an Intel data center, you’ll need to go through an Intel processor’s Omni-Path connection.

If AMD (AMD), for example, were to integrate a Gen-Z controller into their processors, then customers would reap a latency reduction from 8 microseconds to just 50 nanoseconds – a reduction of nearly 94 percent. Micron and AMD will likely the first to reach such an agnostic pairing of anti-Intel artillery. Don’t think for a second that this isn’t in the works right now.

I had to break this article into three parts because it started to snowball with some of the information that I had discovered along the course of writing it. So I was unable to provide a breakdown on the juicy patents on the X100’s architecture (coming soon, however). Just know that, for now, Micron is about to take “central” aspect out of “central processing unit” – the way that it should be.

Homework:

  • Why didn’t Micron tell us that they acquired cognitive computing firm SCUTI AIsome years ago?
  • Why did the CEOs of Micron, ARM, and Xilinx host a recent discussionon the end of Moore’s Law?

I’m busy working on the next article but, until then, I’d reckon that you buy Micron with both hands on any good dips, provided that you have confidence in the global economy and political environment.

Disclosure: I am/we are long MU. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/30/13-things-you-should-give-up-if-you-want-to-be-successful.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

13 things you should give up if you want to be successful

Published Fri, Dec 30 20161:05 PM ESTUpdated Mon, Nov 13 20172:48 PM EST

Zdravko Cvijetic, Medium to let go of if you want to be successful

Somebody once told me the definition of hell: “On your last day on earth, the person you became will meet the person you could have become.”  — Anonymous

Sometimes, to become successful and get closer to the person we can become, we don’t need to add more things — we need to give up on some of them.

There are certain things that are universal, which will make you successful if you give up on them, even though each one of us could have a different definition of success.

You can give up on some of them today, while it might take a bit longer to give up on others.

  1. Give up on the unhealthy lifestyle

“Take care of your body. It’s the only place you have to live.”  — Jim Rohn

If you want to achieve anything in life, everything starts here. First you have to take care of your health, and there are only two things you need to keep in mind:

  1. Healthy Diet
    2. Physical Activity

Small steps, but you will thank yourself one day. successful people eat for breakfast

  1. Give up the short-term mindset

“You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough.”  — Mae West

Successful people set long-term goals, and they know that these aims are merely the result of short-term habits that they need to do every day.

These healthy habits shouldn’t be something you do; they should be something you embody.

There is a difference between: “Working out to get a summer body” and “Working out because that’s who you are.”

  1. Give up on playing small

“Your playing small does not serve the world. There is nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people will not feel insecure around you. We are all meant to shine, as children do. It is not just in some of us; it is in everyone, and as we let our light shine, we unconsciously give others permission to do the same. As we are liberated from our fear, our presence automatically liberates others.”
— Marianne Williamson

If you never try and take great opportunities, or allow your dreams to become realities, you will never unleash your true potential.

And the world will never benefit from what you could have achieved.

So voice your ideas, don’t be afraid to fail, and certainly don’t be afraid to succeed.

  1. Give up your excuses

“It’s not about the cards you’re dealt, but how you play the hand.” ―Randy Pausch, The Last Lecture

Successful people know that they are responsible for their life, no matter their starting point, weaknesses, and past failures.

Realizing that you are responsible for what happens next in your life is both frightening and exciting.

And when you do, that becomes the only way you can become successful, because excuses limit and prevent us from growing personally and professionally.

Own your life; no one else will.these habits in your 20s to be more successful in your 30s

  1. Give up the fixed mindset

“The future belongs to those who learn more skills and combine them in creative ways.” ―Robert Greene, Mastery

People with a fixed mindset believe their intelligence or talents are simply fixed traits, and that talent alone creates success  —  without effort. They’re wrong.

Successful people know this. They invest an immense amount of time on a daily basis to develop a growth mindset, acquire new knowledge, learn new skills and change their perception so that it can benefit their lives.

Remember, who you are today, it’s not who you have to be tomorrow.

  1. Give up believing in the “magic bullet”

“Every day, in every way, I’m getting better and better.”  — Émile Coué

Overnight success is a myth.

Successful people know that making small continual improvement every day will be compounded over time, and give them desired results.

That is why you should plan for the future, but focus on the day that’s ahead of you, and improve just 1% every day.

  1. Give up your perfectionism

“Shipping beats perfection.”  — Kahn Academy’s Development Mantra

Nothing will ever be perfect, no matter how much we try.

Fear of failure (or even fear of success) often prevents us from taking an action and putting our creation out there in the world. But a lot of opportunities will be lost if we wait for the things to be right.

So “ship,” and then improve (that 1%).tips on how to succeed at work

  1. Give up multi-tasking

“You will never reach your destination if you stop and throw stones at every dog that barks.” ―Winston S. Churchill

Successful people know this. That’s why they choose one thing and then beat it into submission. No matter what it is  —  a business idea, a conversation, or a workout.

Being fully present and committed to one task, is indispensable.

  1. Give up your need to control everything

“Some things are up to us, and some things are not up to us.”  — Epictetus, Stoic philosopher

Differentiating these two is important.

Detach from the things you cannot control, and focus on the ones you can, and know that sometimes, the only thing you will be able to control is your attitude towards something.

Remember, nobody can be frustrated while saying “Bubbles” in an angry voice.

  1. Give up on saying YES to things that don’t support your goals

“He who would accomplish little must sacrifice little; he who would achieve much must sacrifice much; he who would attain highly must sacrifice greatly.”  — James Allen

Successful people know that in order to accomplish their goals, they will have to say NO to certain tasks, activities, and demands from their friends, family, and colleagues.

In the short-term, you might sacrifice a bit of instant gratification, but when your goals come to fruition, it will all be worth it.to boost your productivity like Richard Branson

  1. Give up the toxic people

“You are the average of the five people you spend the most time with.” ―Jim Rohn

People we spend the most time with, add up to who we become.

There are people who are less accomplished in their personal and professional life, and there are people who are more accomplished than us. If you spend time with those who are behind you, your average will go down, and with it, your success.

But if you spend time with people who are more accomplished than you, no matter how challenging that might be, you will become more successful.

Take a look at around you, and see if you need to make any changes.

  1. Give up your need to be liked

“The only way to avoid pissing people off is to do nothing important.”  — Oliver Emberton

Think of yourself as a market niche.

There will be a lot of people who like that niche, and there will be individuals who don’t. And no matter what you do, you won’t be able to make the entire market like you.

This is entirely natural, and there’s no need to justify yourself.

The only thing you can do is remain authentic, improve and provide value every day, and know that the growing number of “haters” means that you are doing important things.

  1. Give up your dependency on social media and television

“The trouble is, you think you have time.”  — Jack Kornfield

Impulsive web browsing and television watching are diseases of today’s society.

These two should never be an escape from your life or your goals.

Unless your goals depend on either, you should minimize (or even eliminate) your dependency on them, and direct that time towards things that can enrich your life.

This commentary originally ran on Medium.com.

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