HI Financial Services Commentary 04-19-2016
What is the most common investor mistake? Trading – getting in and getting out at all the wrong times, for all the wrong reasons. Kenneth Fisher
What solves the timing problem in trading? Collar Trading
I can honestly say I’ve never missed and up day in the stock market,
ANYTHING I make on the way down is a profit as stocks come back up
YES the long put allows me to sleep at night knowing I can’t lose everything when the stock market is closed
So I started out today looking at the stock market and trying to figure what the heck was going on.
How did our market recover with 5 quarterly earnings for the S&P being negative?
All the free money from the Fed has filtered thru the system.
There are still major outflows from funds, low to no interest in bonds or treasury investments.
Junk bonds recovered for some unexplainable reason
Short covering can’t bring the market back 12% ‘
Valuations are stretched and at the high end of the range right now
i did not fully get
“Don’t forget it is a tax break FOR 70% of the GDP since it is made of consumer spending”. could you pls explain in tomorrow’s session ?
What’s happening this week and why?
105 S&P 500 companies have earnings this week – Headline Driven
Earnings are beating on the top line (EPS) and missing on the bottom line (Revenues)
Weak Guidance for the most part
Hope for the ECB announcement Wednesday Night
Next week we have the BOJ Announcement
NAHB Housing Market Index 58 ve est 59
VIX bounces as it hit 13 which it is at right now
Building permits 1086 vs est 1200
Housing starts 1089 vs est 1170
Last week we had 8 fed chairs included Yellen speak and it was a mixed bag
Where will our market end this week?
DJIA – Technically Bullish, broke above the cup handle pattern, Slightly Over-bought and MACD is flat
SPX – Same as DJIA but we held the 2100 level
COMP – Bullish, breakout of cup and handle MACD Flat
Where Will the SPX end April 2016?
What is on tap for the rest of the week?=
Tues: DFS, DOV, GS, HOG, INTC, ISRG, JNJ, PM, VMW, YHOO
Wed: ABT, AXP, KO, EMC, FFIV, LVS, MAT, NEM, QCOM, USB, VMI, YUM
Thur: AMD, ALK, GOOGL, SAM, DHI, GM, JCI, MSFT, SLB, LUV, SBUX, UA, V
Fri: CAT, GE, HON, KMB, MCD
Tues: Building Permits, Housing Starts
Wed: MBA, Crude, Existing Home Sales
Thur: Initial, Continuing Claims, Phil Fed, FHFA Housing Price Index
Tues – JP: Merchandise Trade
Thursday – EMU:ECB Announcement, JP: PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
Friday – DE:FR:EMU: PMI Composite Flash
How I am looking to trade?
Prepared for earnings and thinking of rolling up the Long Puts to protect at a higher strike price
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite