HI Market View Commentary 07-28-2025
This week involves FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Big Tech earnings, Important Economic reports,
Distant 4th in importance is going to Trade Deals – EU They still have 15% Tariff rate on non-excluded items
FOMC rate decision and I would bet the house that rates stay the same !! First rate cut this year will be in September and it might be 0.50% or 50 basis points
Yes they FOMC is way late on cutting rates, no increase in tariff “taxes”, no huge job loss and basically, they are paralyzed by over analysis
Earnings and bell weather stocks are reporting every day this week.
Bug economic report:
We are mostly protected – Earnings and FOMC rate decision
BAC 47.75
DIS 120.00
GOOGL – 190
MU – 110
NVDA – 170
VZ – 40
Earnings
AAPL 07/31 AMC
BA 07/29 BMO
DIS 08/06 BMO
F 07/30 AMC
GE 07/17 BMO
MA 08/06 BMO
META 07/30 AMC
MSTR 07/31 AMC
MU 09/24 est
NVDA 08/27 AMC
PLTR 08/04 AMC
TGT 08/20 BMO
UAA 08/08 BMO
V 07/29 AMC
WMT 08/21 BMO
The Big Picture
Last Updated: 18-Jul-25 15:59 ET | Archive
A look at the FOMC with leadership change coming one way or another
Briefing.com Summary:
*Whoever succeeds Jerome Powell as Fed Chair may face added dissent if they are seen as a politically motivated pick.
*The president is unlikely to fire Fed Chair Powell before his term ends without clear evidence of wrongdoing.
*The market is sniffing more accommodative policy under a new Fed Chair, but the Chair alone cannot change rates.
There was a stir in the market following press reports that President Trump is close to firing Fed Chair Powell. That speculation ignited the punditry, who were quick to share their views on why that should or should not happen.
The argument against firing Fed Chair Powell before his term ends in May 2026 is that it would destroy the stabilizing principle of the Federal Reserve operating independently of political influence. The argument for firing Fed Chair Powell revolves around claims of policy mismanagement (i.e., keeping rates too high) and alleged malfeasance in overseeing the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters.
The president, in response to the aforementioned press reports, said it is “highly unlikely” that he will fire Fed Chair Powell before his term ends, unless it is discovered that the Fed Chair committed fraud.
There are strong opinions on the topic and many questions as to whether the president even has the legal ground to fire Fed Chair Powell and whether any selected successor would be able to usher in the substantive policy rate reduction the president wants to see in short order.
There is an important point of order surrounding all this hubbub. The Chair of the Federal Reserve does not make independent interest rate decisions. When it comes to monetary policy, it is a decision by committee—the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Today, we will examine its structure.
Board of Governors
The FOMC meets eight times a year and consists of 12 members—the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the New York Fed president, who is a permanent voting member, and four of the remaining 11 regional Federal Reserve bank presidents, who serve one-year rotating terms.
The seven governors are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate. A full term is 14 years. A governor who serves a full term cannot be reappointed, but a governor who serves a portion of an unexpired term may be reappointed.
The Chair of the Board of Governors (Jerome Powell) and Vice Chair of the Board (Philip Jefferson), as well as the Vice Chair for Supervision (Michelle Bowman), are nominated by the president from among the board members and confirmed by the Senate. These positions have a term of four years.
Jerome Powell was nominated by President Trump in his first term and took ownership of the position on February 5, 2018. He was again nominated by President Biden for a second four-year term and sworn in on May 23, 2022. The other board members are as follows:
- Philip Jefferson: Nominated by President Biden, Mr. Jefferson took office on May 23, 2022, filling an unexpired term ending January 31, 2036.
- Michelle Bowman: Nominated by President Trump in April 2018 to fill an unexpired term ending January 31, 2020. She was reappointed to the Board on January 23, 2020, for a term ending January 31, 2034.
- Michael Barr: Nominated by President Biden on April 15, 2022, for an unexpired term ending January 31, 2032.
- Lisa Cook: Nominated by President Biden on April 14, 2022. She took office on May 23, 2022, filling an unexpired term ending January 31, 2024. She was reappointed to the Board on September 8, 2023, for a term ending January 31, 2038.
- Adriana Kugler: Nominated by President Biden on May 12, 2023, to fill an unexpired term ending January 31, 2026.
- Christopher Waller: Nominated by President Trump on January 16, 2020. He took office on December 18, 2020, to fill an unexpired term ending January 31, 2030.
In brief, five of the seven current Board Governors were nominated by President Biden. Mr. Powell and Ms. Kugler have terms ending in 2026. In the case of Mr. Powell, his term as Chair of the Board of Governors ends in May 2026, but his term as a Fed Governor ends January 31, 2028. He has an option, therefore, to remain on the Board of Governors after his term as Chairman of the Board of Governors ends.
Fed Presidents
There are 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. They all participate at the FOMC meetings, but only five of them have a vote in a given year.
As noted above, the New York Fed president has a permanent vote. The four bank presidents on the 2025 FOMC are:
- Susan Collins – Boston
- Austan Goolsbee – Chicago
- Alberto Musalem – St. Louis
- Jeffrey Schmid – Kansas City
When the rotation is made in 2026, the following four presidents will be voting members:
- Beth Hammack – Cleveland
- Anna Paulson – Philadelphia
- Lorie Logan – Dallas
- Neel Kashkari – Minneapolis
Setting Policy
The main job of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in a manner that is conducive for meeting the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
That could mean endorsing a restrictive monetary policy (keeping the target range for the fed funds rate above the Fed’s longer-run rate) to slow growth in order to control inflation, embracing an accommodative monetary policy (leaving the target range for the fed funds rate below the Fed’s longer-run rate) to stimulate growth, or sticking with a neutral policy position by keeping the target range for the fed funds rate in line with the longer-run average so that it is not overly restrictive or overly accommodative for growth.
The current target range for the fed funds rate is 4.25-4.50%. The Fed’s longer-run rate is 3.00%, so it is considered to be operating with a restrictive policy stance (much to the president’s chagrin). The fear, for some, is that the Fed will hold its policy rate too high for too long and invite either a meaningful economic slowdown or a recession as the higher cost of credit slows consumer and business spending activity.
Fed Chair Powell recently said that the Fed, which last cut rates in December 2024, would have likely lowered rates again by now if not for the uncertainty that was stoked by the president’s tariff announcements in early April. Many Fed officials are concerned that the higher tariff rates could lead to higher inflation, and not just a one-time price adjustment, so they want to see more data before making any decision to cut rates. Fed Chair Powell is in that camp.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
With the power to nominate Fed Governors and the Chair of the Board of Governors, President Trump has not been shy about his desire to get someone in the Chair’s seat who will be an advocate for a lower interest rate regime. Press reports suggest National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller are leading contenders to replace Jerome Powell.
There is a prevailing assumption that the next head of the FOMC will be able to lower rates easily in accordance with the president’s wishes. That isn’t an indisputably safe assumption for the simple reason that decisions require a simple majority. Seven of the 12 FOMC members have to vote in favor of a rate move, or it cannot happen. The Chair of the FOMC does not have veto power.
The Federal Reserve isn’t a body that has typically had a lot of dissents at its FOMC meetings. There might be one or two occasionally, but the potential for more dissents will be greater under a new Fed Chair if the other members feel a rate decision is simply a political order.
There is a lot of narrative energy surrounding Fed Chair Powell’s position and the current policy stance of the FOMC. The narrative that is supercharged is that Jerome Powell will soon be gone, forced out either by the calendar or an unprecedented firing, and that a puppet official will be nominated to take his place.
Puppet is perhaps too strong a word, yet the market is sniffing a more accommodative policy, which has been a factor in its remarkable resilience to selling pressure. To that end, there is an understanding that the president won’t nominate anyone who isn’t on board with cutting rates right away and by quite a lot. That may be easier said than done, though, given the operating framework of the FOMC.
—Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com
(Editor’s Note: The next installment of The Big Picture will be published the week of July 28.)
Where will our markets end this week?
Higher
DJIA – Bullish
SPX – Bullish Slightly Overbought
COMP – Bullish slightly overbought
Where Will the SPX end July 2025?
07-28-2025 +2.0%
07-21-2025 +2.0%
07-14-2025 +2.0%
07-07-2025 -1.0%
06-30-2025 ???%
Earnings:
Mon: NUE, RMBS, WM, WHR
Tues: GLW, LAD, PYPL, PG, RCL, UNH, UPS, EA, LC, SBUX, JBLU, JCI, V,
Wed: MO, GRMN, HOG, HUM, KHC, VFC, CVNA, EBAY, FFIV, MGM, QCOM, WDC, MSFT, META
Thur: BUD, BMY, IP, MA, SHAK, SIRI, BZH, CLX, ROKU, AMZN, AAPL, MSTR
Fri: CVX, XOM, FLR, GWW, KMB, TROW
Econ Reports:
Mon:
Tue Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller, JOLTS
Wed: MBA, ADP Employment, GDP, GDP Deflator, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Rate Decision,
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, PCE Prices, PCE Core Prices, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI
Fri: Average Workweek, Non-Farm Payroll, Private Payroll, Unemployment Rate, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, Michigan Sentiment
How am I looking to trade?
Time to start protecting for earnings
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
info@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
Questions???
Do you feel that it is still important to protect stock ownership during earnings = YES of course because that is the time when stocks can lose 15% or more within 4 weeks
Google stock climbs following Q2 earnings beat
Daniel Howley · Technology Editor
Updated Thu, July 24, 2025 at 9:00 AM MDT 2 min read
Shares of Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) rose in early trading Thursday, after it reported better-than-expected earnings after the bell on Wednesday on the strength of its advertising and cloud businesses.
“AI is positively impacting every part of the business, driving strong momentum,” CEO Sundar Pichai said in a statement.
Alphabet shares rose more than 1%. The stock has risen around 0.5% this year, compared with a gain of over 8% for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).
NasdaqGS – Nasdaq Real Time Price•USD
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
“Search delivered double-digit revenue growth, and our new features, like AI Overviews and AI Mode, are performing well,” he added. “We continue to see strong performance in YouTube as well as subscriptions offerings. And Cloud had strong growth in revenues, backlog, and profitability. Its annual revenue run-rate is now more than $50 billion.”
But the company said capital expenditures will climb to $85 billion. Google previously projected $75 billion.
For the quarter, Google saw adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.31 on revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs (TAC) of $81.7 billion. Analysts were anticipating adj. EPS of $2.17 on revenue ex-TAC of $79.6 billion. The company posted revenue of $71.3 billion during the same period last year.
Advertising revenue came in at $71.3 billion versus expectations of $69.6 billion. Search revenue topped out at $54.1 billion versus an anticipated $52.7 billion. YouTube ad revenue was $9.8 billion versus expectations of $9.5 billion.
Google Cloud Platform revenue hit $13.6 billion. Analysts were looking for $13.1 billion.
Read more: Live coverage of corporate earnings
Google, like its other Big Tech peers, continues to splash huge amounts of cash on its AI buildout. This year, the company is expected to drop $75 billion expanding its AI capabilities, including on massive data centers running on both its own home-grown chips and Nvidia’s processors.
Google is also facing potentially devastating consequences from a judge’s decision that held it liable for antitrust violations in search. Judge Amit Mehta of the US District Court for the District of Columbia is expected to issue a ruling on “remedies” that follows the Justice Department’s victory against the company sometime next month.
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai speaks at a Google I/O event in Mountain View, Calif., on May 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
Judge Mehta held that Google violated antitrust law by boxing out rivals in the online search engine and online search text markets. To restore competition, he could order Google to refrain from longstanding exclusivity deals with the likes of Apple (AAPL) that set Google Search as the default option on the company’s smartphones.
Mehta could also force Google to sell off its Chrome browser, the most popular web browser in the world. That would put a dent in Google’s all-important search business, a dangerous proposition for the company.
Correction: A previous version of this article misstated Alphabet’s revenue ex-tac. We regret the error.
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Email Daniel Howley at dhowley@yahoofinance.com. Follow him on X/Twitter at @DanielHowley.
Walt Disney (DIS) to Invest $30 Billion in Its U.S. Theme Parks
Joel BagloleJul 28, 2025, 12:27 PM
Walt Disney Co. DIS -0.97% ▼ is planning to invest $30 billion to upgrade and expand its existing theme parks in the U.S.
CEO Bob Iger said that Disney plans on “investing more than $30 billion in our theme parks in Florida and California to enhance our offerings, create jobs, and support the U.S. economy.” The big investment comes as Disney faces competition from Universal Studios’ new Florida theme park called Epic Universe, and the addition of the “World of Nintendo” rides at Universal Studios Hollywood in California.
Disney plans to spend the $30 billion over the next decade, though what exactly the investment entails is not yet known. Analysts say that the amount of money being spent on Disney’s theme parks, and the timeline for the investment, are aggressive.
Prioritizing Disney World
Iger has made it clear that Disney’s theme parks are a priority and a never-ending investment for the entertainment giant. Both Disneyland in California and Disney World in Florida became a drag on the company’s earnings during the Covid-19 pandemic when they were forced to close or operate at reduced capacity.
However, both theme parks are now a growth engine for Disney once again, and CEO Iger says the company plans to ensure their continued success through investments. “Our focus must always be on building for tomorrow, as much as it is on managing for today. That eye to the future and driving growth is central to the important work we’ve done advancing our four strategic priorities,” he said.
DIS stock has risen 9% this year.
Is DIS Stock a Buy?
The stock of Walt Disney Co. has a consensus Strong Buy rating among 19 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on 16 Buy and three Hold recommendations assigned in the last three months. The average DIS price target of $134 implies 11.41% upside from current levels.
Disney Stock (DIS) Slips Despite The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Box Office Win
William WhiteJul 28, 2025, 09:15 AM
Disney stock dipped on Friday despite a strong box office performance for The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
Disney DIS -0.96% ▼ has scored another box office win with the opening weekend of The Fantastic Four: First Steps. The latest film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) pulled in an estimated $118 million from the domestic box office and $220 million worldwide. This has the film on track to surpass its $300 million budget.
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The Fantastic Four: First Steps‘ box office performance matched analysts’ estimates, but fell short of a projected $130 million best-case scenario. Even so, this is the best-performing Marvel film of 2025 and is also the highest-grossing non-sequel Marvel movie released in the last six years.
These strong box office numbers could be a sign that superhero fatigue has started to weaken. One potential reason for the film’s strong success is its lack of ties to the main Marvel film universe. As a result, viewers didn’t have to watch any other shows or movies to understand the events of The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
Disney Stock Movement Today
Disney stock was down 1.03% on Monday, despite the box office success of The Fantastic Four: First Steps. However, the shares were still up 8.42% year-to-date and 31.83% over the past 12 months.
DIS stock has been boosted by strong box office releases in 2025:
- Lilo & Stitch pulled in over $1 billion from the box office.
- Captain America: Brave New World generated roughly $415 million during its theatrical run.
- Thunderbolts* was right behind it with around $382 million.
While these have been strong successes, Disney has had some flops this year. Among them are Snow White and Pixar’s Elio, both of which failed to recoup their budgets when they hit theaters.
Is Disney Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Turning to Wall Street, the analysts’ consensus rating for Disney is Strong Buy, based on 16 Buy and three Hold ratings over the past three months. With that comes an average DIS stock price target of $134, representing a potential 11.71% upside for the shares.
Disclaimer: The TipRanks Smart Score performance is based on backtested results. Backtested performance is not an indicator of future actual results. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. Backtested results are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. General assumptions include: XYZ firm would have been able to purchase the securities recommended by the model and the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit all trading. Changes in these assumptions may have a material impact on the backtested returns presented. Certain assumptions have been made for modeling purposes and are unlikely to be realized. No representations and warranties are made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. Backtested performance is developed with the benefit of hindsight and has inherent limitations. Specifically, backtested results do not reflect actual trading or the effect of material economic and market factors on the decision-making process. Since trades have not actually been executed, results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, and may not reflect the impact that certain economic or market factors may have had on the decision-making process. Further, backtesting allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted until past returns are maximized. Actual performance may differ significantly from backtested performance. Backtested results are adjusted to reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other income and, except where otherwise indicated, are presented gross-of fees and do not include the effect of backtested transaction costs, management fees, performance fees or expenses, if applicable. Please note all regulatory considerations regarding the presentation of fees must be taken into account. No cash balance or cash flow is included in the calculation.
JPMorgan says fintech middlemen like Plaid are ‘massively taxing’ its systems with unnecessary pings
Published Mon, Jul 28 20252:15 PM EDTUpdated 17 Min Ago
Key Points
- JPMorgan Chase said that the fintech middlemen that have helped a new generation of financial apps connect with traditional checking accounts are flooding the bank’s systems with unnecessary data requests.
- Of 1.89 billion data requests from middlemen hitting its systems in June, only 13% were initiated by a customer for transactions, according to an internal JPMorgan memo seen by CNBC.
- The majority of data pulls, known as API calls, were for purposes ranging from helping fintech companies improve their products or prevent fraud to other efforts including harvesting data for sale, said a person with knowledge of the memo.
JPMorgan Chase says fintech middlemen — the companies that have helped a new generation of financial apps connect with traditional checking accounts — are flooding the bank’s systems with unnecessary data requests.
“Aggregators are accessing customer data multiple times daily, even when the customer is not actively using the app,” a JPMorgan systems employee wrote last week in an internal memo to retail payments head Melissa Feldsher. “These access requests are massively taxing our systems.”
Of 1.89 billion data requests from middlemen hitting JPMorgan’s systems in June, only 13% were initiated by a customer for transactions, according to the memo, which was seen by CNBC.
The majority of data pulls, known as API calls, were for purposes ranging from helping fintech companies improve their products or prevent fraud to other efforts including harvesting data for sale, said a person with knowledge of the memo who declined to be identified amid talks between JPMorgan and the fintechs.
JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, is preparing to charge the middlemen new fees for access to systems that it says are increasingly costly to maintain. Negotiations between JPMorgan and the fintech middlemen are ongoing, but the new fees could start as soon as October, said people with knowledge of the matter.
The bank’s move could lead to upheaval in the fintech ecosystem, which flourished as aggregators including Plaid and MX connected traditional banks with newer arrivals. The API access had been free for years, which enabled the fintech upstarts to offer accounts with no-fee checking or trading services.
The situation changed in May after the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau filed a motion in support of a banking industry lawsuit seeking to end the so-called “open banking” rule.
That rule, finalized by the Biden-era CFPB in the waning months of that administration, mandated that banks had to provide data to authorized parties for free. A week after the rule’s passage, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon called on bankers to “fight back” against what he said were unfair regulations.
Surging volumes
News this month that JPMorgan was planning to charge for customer data, first reported by Bloomberg, led to accusations from venture capital investors and fintech and crypto executives that JPMorgan was engaging in “anti-competitive, rent-seeking behavior” by putting up paywalls to customer data.
But JPMorgan says it bears the rising costs from maintaining the infrastructure needed for the surge in volumes, as well as elevated fraud claims linked to payments made in the fintech ecosystem.
The total volume of API calls received by JPMorgan has more than doubled in the past two years, according to the memo.
Transactions involving money sent over electronic ACH transactions were 69% more likely to result in fraud claims if they involved data middlemen, according to the memo.
JPMorgan saw about $50 million in fraud claims from ACH transactions initiated through aggregators, a figure the bank expects to triple within 5 years.
Among the 13 fintech companies tracked in the bank’s memo, more than half of all June activity, with 1.08 billion API requests, came from a single company. Though the firms aren’t named, CNBC has learned that the largest player represented in the data is Plaid.
JPMorgan’s data show that just 6% of Plaid’s API calls were initiated by customers.
Plaid said in a statement to CNBC that this figure “misrepresents how data access works” because all activity begins when customers grant permission to fintech companies when they sign up for accounts. Of course, many customers don’t closely read the lengthy “Terms and Conditions” pages that contain data-sharing disclosures before opening new accounts.
“Calling a bank’s API when a user is not present once they have authorized a connection is a standard industry practice supported by all major banks in order for consumers to get critical alerts for overdraft fees or suspicious activity,” Plaid told CNBC.
Plaid also said that JPMorgan’s claims of higher fraud among aggregators were “misleading,” though it didn’t elaborate.
“It is not surprising that the volume of data access is increasing alongside demand from consumers for financial tools that are smarter, faster, and more tailored to their needs,” Plaid said.
“To be clear, we believe it is essential that the data sharing ecosystem works for everyone, including consumers, fintech developers, and financial institutions – many of whom leverage open banking in their own products,” the company said.
The proposed fee schedules circulated by JPMorgan could result in Plaid paying $300 million in new annual fees, according to a Forbes report.
The rest of the companies tracked in the JPMorgan document are far smaller entities; only four other middlemen registered more than 100 million monthly API calls.
Bid-ask spread
If the Biden-era “open banking” rule is struck down by the courts, the main question is not whether the middlemen will have to pay for data, but how much they will have to pay.
The back-and-forth between JPMorgan and the middlemen is a private process, spilling into public view, to arrive at a new reality that is acceptable to all.
JPMorgan has had productive conversations with several data aggregators who acknowledge that they can change the way they pull data if it is no longer free, according to a person with knowledge of the negotiations.
“I think both sides fully acknowledge there are things they could do to right-size call volume,” this person said.
| S&P 500 now more likely to reach 7,200 next year, according to Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Better earnings and a steadily high multiple should boost stocks |
| By Jamie Chisholm |
| The new highs keep coming. Futures early Monday showed the S&P 500 on course for its 15th record of 2025. Tariff deals at levels that eight months ago would have been considered economically damaging, are now welcomed by investors. And many analysts are embracing the optimism. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief stock-market strategist, says he now is leaning more toward his bull case for the S&P 500 SPX, in a new note that published Monday. That’s 7,200 for the Wall Street benchmark in 12 months time, based on earnings per share of $319 and a forward share price to earnings multiple of 22.5. Wilson says this view is grounded on a more resilient earnings and cash flow backdrop than previously expected, an improvement driven in part by AI adoption, dollar weakness, cash tax savings from the Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and pent up demand for many sectors in the market. Also, many parts of the stock market will benefit from easier growth comparisons, having experienced what Wilson terms “rolling earnings recessions for the better part of the last 3 years.” And with private sector wage growth in decline for the last several years — and AI adoption accelerating the phenomenon — this positive operating leverage should see profit margins expand. All told, earnings revision breadth has improved considerably in recent months, he says. The high probability of more Federal Reserve rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 will also be a boon for stocks. Indeed, the likelihood of easier monetary policy is one reason why Wilson is comfortable with applying the historically high 22.5 valuation multiple. “On that score, our regime analysis shows that when EPS growth is above the long-term median and the fed-funds rate is down on a year-over-year basis (our house views by mid-2026), the market multiple expands 90% of the time,” Wilson says. With regard to tariffs, he acknowledges they may be a problem for consumer goods companies, of which he suggests investors should be underweight. But overall the “rate of change on policy uncertainty peaked back in April as stocks troughed.” Wilson’s favored sector is industrials, even though he notes it’s already the best performing in the S&P 500 year-to-date and over the last month. “Relative earnings revisions remain durable, capacity utilization is stabilizing, and aggregate C&I [commercial and industrial] loans have surpassed $2.8 trillion (the highest level since 2020),” he writes. Companies likely to benefit from domestic infrastructure spending, particularly related to technology, include Rockwell Automation ROK, Eaton ETN, Trane Technologies TT and Johnson Controls International JCI. Despite Wilson’s positivity going into 2026, he accepts that near-term the setup is not without risks, including stubbornly high longer-term Treasury yields, tariff-related inflation and seasonal stock market headwinds. “Thus, we do expect some consolidation tactically, but would reiterate that we expect pullbacks to be shallow, and we’re buyers of dips,” he says. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/24/intel-intc-earnings-report-q2-2025.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail Intel beats on revenue, slashes foundry investments as CEO says ‘no more blank checks’ Published Thu, Jul 24 20254:09 PM EDTUpdated Thu, Jul 24 20257:00 PM EDT Kif Leswing@kifleswing Key Points Intel reported second-quarter results on Thursday that beat Wall Street expectations on revenue, as new CEO Lip-Bu Tan announced significant cuts in chip factory construction. In a memo to employees, Tan said that the first few months of his tenure had “not been easy.” Intel shares are up 13% so far this year as of Thursday’s close after plummeting by 60% in 2024, their worst year on record. on Thursday that beat Wall Street expectations on revenue, as the company’s new CEO Lip-Bu Tan announced significant cuts in chip factory construction. The stock fell about 5% in extended trading. Here’s how the chipmaker did versus LSEG consensus estimates: Earnings per share: Loss of 10 cents per share, adjusted. Revenue: $12.86 billion versus $11.92 billion estimated Intel said it expects revenue for the third-quarter of $13.1 billion at the midpoint of its range, versus the average analyst estimate of $12.65 billion. The chipmaker said that it expects to break even on earnings while analysts were looking for earnings of 4 cents per share. For the second quarter, Intel reported a net loss of $2.9 billion, or 67 cents per share, compared with a $1.61 billion net loss, or 38 cents per share, in the year-earlier period. Earnings per share were not comparable to analyst estimates due to an $800 million impairment charge, “related to excess tools with no identified re-use,” the company said. That resulted in an EPS adjustment of about 20 cents. The report was Intel’s second since Lip-Bu Tan took over as CEO in March, promising to make the chipmaker’s products competitive again, and to reduce bureaucracy and layers of management, including slashing staff in Oregon and California. In a memo to employees published on Thursday, Tan said that the first few months of his tenure had “not been easy.” He said that the company had “completed the majority” of its planned layoffs, amounting to 15% of the workforce, and that it plans to end the year with 75,000 employees. Intel previously said it was trying to reduce operating expenses by $17 billion in 2025. Intel shares are up about 13% this year as of Thursday’s close after plummeting 60% in 2024, their worst year on record. Tan also announced several other spending cuts in the memo, particularly in the company’s costly foundry division, which makes chips for other companies and is still looking for a big customer to anchor the business. Intel said its foundry business had an operating loss of $3.17 billion on $4.4 billion in revenue. Tan said that Intel had cancelled planned fab projects in Germany and Poland, and will consolidate its testing and assembly operations in Vietnam and Malaysia. He added that the company would slow down the pace of its construction of a cutting-edge chip factory in Ohio, depending on market demand and if it can secure big customers for the facility. “Over the past several years, the company invested too much, too soon – without adequate demand,” Tan wrote. “In the process, our factory footprint became needlessly fragmented and underutilized.” Tan wrote that the company’s forthcoming chip manufacturing process, called 14A, will be built out based on confirmed customer commitments. “There are no more blank checks. Every investment must make economic sense,” Tan wrote. The company’s client computing group, which is primarily comprised of sales of central processors for PCs, had $7.9 billion in sales, down 3% on an annual basis. Revenue in the data center group, which includes some AI chips but is mostly central processors for servers, rose 4% to $3.9 billion. Tan wrote in his memo that Intel wants to regain market share in data center chips, and is looking for a permanent leader for the business. Longtime rival Advanced Micro Devices has increasingly been winning server business from cloud customers. Tan added he would personally review and approve all chip designs before they are taped out, which is the final step of the design process before a new chip is manufactured. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/27/trump-european-union-eu-trade-tariffs.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail Trump announces EU trade deal with 15% tariffs Published Sun, Jul 27 20251:49 PM EDTUpdated Sun, Jul 27 20256:59 PM EDT Erin Doherty@erinpdoherty Sophie Kiderlin@in/sophie-kiderlin-b327b914a/@SKiderlin ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Key Points President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the U.S. has reached a trade deal with the European Union. Trump said that the deal imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods to the U.S., including cars. The U.S. president had previously threatened 30% tariffs on goods from the European Union. The EU also agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest an additional $600 billion worth of investments into the U.S. above current levels. President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. reached a trade deal with the European Union, following pivotal discussions with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen days before the Aug. 1 tariff deadline. Trump said that the deal imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods to the U.S., including cars. Some products, including aircrafts and their components, some chemicals and pharmaceuticals, will not be subject to tariffs, von der Leyen said in a briefing after the agreement was announced. She also said that the new 15% tariff rate would not be added to any tariffs already in effect. The 15% tariff rate is lower than the 30% rate Trump had previously threatened against the United States’ largest trading partner, but higher than the 10% baseline tariffs the EU was hoping for. Trump said that the 27-member bloc also agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest an additional $600 billion worth of investments into the U.S. above current levels. He said that the bloc would also be “purchasing hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military equipment,” but did not provide a specific dollar amount. “It’s a very powerful deal, it’s a very big deal, it’s the biggest of all the deals,” Trump said Sunday alongside von der Leyen. “It’s a good deal, it’s a huge deal, with tough negotiations,” von der Leyen said after the meeting. While questions remain about the specific details and timeline of the EU investments, the agreement marks a pivotal moment for Trump, following weeks of uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-EU trade talks. Trump during a press conference before his meeting with the European leader said that there was a 50-50 chance they would reach a framework of a deal. Brussels had been preparing for a no-deal scenario if the trade talks devolved ahead of Aug. 1. Lawmakers had approved a major package of counter-tariffs, which would have targeted a range of U.S. goods. The bloc also considered deploying the EU’s “Anti-Coercion Instrument,” a move seen as the trading bloc’s “trade bazooka.” European leaders react European leaders were quick to applaud the agreement amid relief that the bloc had seemingly avoided a trade war, but some voiced caution about the terms of the deal. Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheál Martin said the agreement “brings clarity and predictability to the trading relationship between the EU and the US,” according to a statement. “It does mean that there will now be higher tariffs than there have been and this will have an impact on trade between the EU and the US, making it more expensive and more challenging,” Ireland’s Department of the Taoiseach said. Still, the agreement “creates a new era of stability,” the statement continued. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the new accord, citing the benefits it would bring to the country’s auto industry. “With the agreement in the EU-US negotiations on tariffs a trade conflict, which would have hit the export-oriented German economy hard, has been avoided,” he said in a statement. “This is especially true for the auto industry, for which the current tariffs of 27.5% were almost halved to 15%. Especially here the quick tariff reduction is of great significance,” he added. Netherlands Prime Minister Dick Schoof said, in a post on X Sunday, that “no tariffs would have been better,” but praised the European Commission for securing the best agreement possible. He said the deal underway “provides more clarity for our businesses and brings more market stability.” Italy’s government leaders, including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, issued a statement saying the deal helps avoid a “direct clash between the two sides of the Atlantic,” and “guarantees stability” between the U.S. and European Union. The statement also said Italy considered tariffs at 15% to be “sustainable,” if that percentage includes, and is not in addition to, previous tariffs. The U.S.-EU trade relationship was valued at 1.68 trillion euros ($1.97 trillion) when taking into account both services and goods trading in 2024, according to the European Council. While the EU recorded a surplus on goods trading, it noted a deficit in the services realm. This left the EU with an overall trade surplus of around 50 billion euros with the U.S. last year. — CNBC’s Terri Cullen contributed to this report. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/24/tesla-bitcoin-crypto-sale.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail Tesla dumped 75% of its bitcoin at one of the worst times, losing out on billions Published Thu, Jul 24 20253:49 PM EDTUpdated Thu, Jul 24 20254:56 PM EDT Ari Levy@levynews Key Points After buying $1.5 billion of bitcoin in 2021, Tesla sold three-quarters of its holdings the next year as the market was tanking. Bitcoin has since rebounded in a big way, jumping about 80% just in the past year, meaning Tesla has lost out on billions of dollars in potential gains. In its earnings report Wednesday, Tesla said its holdings of digital assets rose to $1.24 billion from $722 million a year ago, reflecting bitcoin’s rally. In this article Tesla missed on the top and bottom lines in the second quarter, but another miss was buried in its investor deck. The company’s digital assets are currently valued at $1.24 billion. That’s up substantially from $722 million a year ago. But anyone who’s been following the crypto market knows that the figure represents a lost opportunity amounting to billions of dollars in missed gains for the electric vehicle maker. Bitcoin is trading near a record and is up 80% over the past year. Tesla sold 75% of its holdings in mid-2022, when the digital currency was trading at a fraction of its current price. While CEO Elon Musk has made clear that the future of his electric vehicle company is about robotaxis and humanoid robots — not about crypto investments — the business in its current form is struggling and could use the cash boost. Tesla reported a second straight drop in auto revenue in its earnings report late Wednesday, and came up short of Wall Street estimates. The stock plunged 8% on Thursday and is now down about 25% for the year, by far the biggest drop among tech’s megacaps. Robotaxis and Optimus robots are huge and costly bets for Musk in markets with stiff competition and ever-changing dynamics. Tesla has also acknowledged that President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the expiration of federal EV tax credits could hurt the company’s core business in the coming quarters. Tesla’s digital assets, meanwhile, are bolstering profitability. Gains from bitcoin in the second quarter amounted to $284 million in a period when total net income was $1.17 billion. The gains could have been much greater. In early 2021, Tesla invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin, banking on what the EV company called the digital currency’s “long-term potential” and to add “more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash.” Musk had become a loud proponent of bitcoin online, and in January of that year, the currency skyrocketed 20% in a day after the Tesla CEO added #bitcoin to his bio on Twitter, now X. By mid-2022, the world was in a much different place. The Covid-era boom was gone, replaced by soaring inflation and rising interest rates, an equation that pushed investors out of risky assets. Trump just signed crypto’s first big law. Here’s what come next Tesla said in the second quarter of that year that it sold three-quarters of its bitcoin holdings, adding cash to its balance sheet at a time when equity and crypto markets were simultaneously plunging. Tesla lost about two-thirds of its market cap in 2022, and bitcoin fell by 60%. However, bitcoin has rebounded sharply since then, getting an added boost this year from the Trump administration’s efforts to loosen regulations and its promise to create a strategic bitcoin reserve. Bitcoin is currently trading at over $119,000, up about sixfold from the end of the second quarter of 2022, the period when Tesla made its big move out. Had Tesla held on to all of its bitcoin, that stash would be worth roughly $5 billion, based on estimates of how much Tesla bought in 2021, instead of $1.24 billion. The $936 million worth of bitcoin the company converted to cash would currently be valued at over $3.5 billion. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment. As for Musk, he’s hardly said anything about bitcoin on his social network X in the past three years. In March 2022, shortly before Tesla began dumping bitcoin, he wrote regarding cryptocurrencies, “I still own & won’t sell my Bitcoin, Ethereum or Doge fwiw.” — CNBC’s Lora Kolodny contributed to this report. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/21/nasdaq-100-momentum-unmatched-since-1999-so-brace-for-a-shakeout-says-btig.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail |
Nasdaq 100 momentum unmatched since 1999 so brace for a shakeout, says BTIG
Published Mon, Jul 21 20254:13 PM EDTUpdated Mon, Jul 21 20255:29 PM EDT
It’s time to brace for a shakeout, according to BTIG.
The market is flaring some near-term warning signals. As of Sunday, the Nasdaq 100 — which comprises the 100 largest companies excluding financials in the Nasdaq stock exchange — has gone 60 straight trading days without closing below its 20-day moving average, a short-term trend indicator.
That’s a troubling signal when you consider the last time the Nasdaq 100 sustained this sort of momentum was back in 1999, a little before the dot-com bubble burst.
“The Nasdaq 100 has now gone 60 trading days without closing below its 20 DMA, the second-longest streak in its history (back to 1985). The longest was ended in early 1999,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, wrote in a Sunday note titled “Fasten Your Seatbelts.”
“The main takeaway is that we may encounter some turbulence, even though it’s unlikely to mark a major peak,” Krinsky wrote.
That word of caution comes with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite kicking off the week at record highs, once again, despite concerns ahead around the Aug. 1 trade deadline, and whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in their meeting next week. Earnings season is also expected to add to individual stock volatility.
However, with reversal indicators showing signs of peaking and seasonal trends weakening, the technical setup is starting to suggest greater unruliness lies ahead. Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index, has been notably quiet all month.
Greater turbulence could be especially troubling for more risky assets, such as the ARK Innovation ETF, which has rallied more than 12% this month, defying fears of a pullback.
“We have clearly been offsides on the ARKK move, thinking a pullback was due for the last few weeks. With that said, relative to the 100 DMA it’s now 38% above, only exceeded during a brief period in July ’20,” Krinsky wrote. “We continue to think a shakeout is overdue.”
The technician expects investors could rotate into utilities. He said the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund has “prebreakout potential” that can carry it to the low $90s from around $84, where it was last hovering.
