HI Market View Commentary 10-13-2025
7 Most Terrifying Consequences Of A Government Shutdown
Politics·Oct 1, 2025 · BabylonBee.com
Brace yourself, America: the federal government has been shut down. Congress will no longer be able to pass any bills and all federal agencies will grind to a halt. But, there will also be some very serious consequences.
Here are the 7 most terrifying:
- The Capitol cafeteria will not be able to serve Ted Cruz his customary afternoon Ho Hos: Devastating.
- That department you’ve never heard of that does nothing for you will be furloughed: You can kiss the Commission on Overseas Native Fisheries goodbye.
- Government workers will lose thousands of hours of sleep they would otherwise be getting at work: No one wants to sleep on their own time.
- Rand Paul will be intolerably giddy: He’s so annoying when he gets like that.
- AOC will have to go back to bartending, but she doesn’t know how to make a rum and coke: It’s a tough recipe.
- Instead of shopping online while “working from home,” government employees will have to shop online while furloughed at home: Brutal.
- No one will be able to unlock the restrooms at Yosemite National Park: It is literally impossible to evacuate your bowels without government support.
Longest shutdown = 35 days = Republican = Boarder wall = 240 billion dollars
9 Days = Democrats = Affordable Care Act = 1.2 trillion for non-US citizen based medical care
Non-Essential government workers are losing their jobs = IRS, EPA, Education Dept, HSH
Fed sees two rate cuts by end-2025. The central bank’s officials in September were strongly inclined to lower interest rates, with the only dispute seeming to be over how many cuts were coming, meeting minutes released Wednesday stateside showed.
ALL members want rate cuts and the question how many and how quickly
TACO trade is back!!! From this weekends email:
So now we come to the TACO trade = Trump Always Chickens Out. IS this posturing before the meeting with Xi? Probably and we’ve only seen this no less than a dozen times in the last year against many different countries. Does it work? Hell yes it works and it works perfectly to create a more balanced free market capitalism trade between countries. It is not morally or criminally wrong to make a lot of money. People aren’t bad people who have worked hard and are “rich”. The same principle is true for countries as well. It is not the responsibility of the USA to fund other countries as we are spending beyond our means. Will Trump follow through with the tariffs? Probably not. But, if he does it is not necessarily a bad thing. If anything it is fair as we are offering the same treatment that their country continues to do to the USA.
Kevin how did you know??? We didn’t know but simple level 1 technical analysis told us to protect early
Earnings
AAPL 10/30 AMC
BA 10/29 BMO
BAC 10/15 BMO
BIDU 11/20 est
CB 10/21 AMC
DIS 11/13 BMO
F 10/23 AMC
GE 10/21 BMO
GOOGL 10/28 est
JPM 10/14 BMO
KEY 10/16 BMO
LMT 10/21 BMO
MA 10/30 est
META 10/20 AMC
MSTR 10/30 est
MU 12/17 est
NVDA 11/29 AMC
O 11/03 AMC
PLTR 11/03 est
TGT 11/19 BMO
TXN 10/21 AMC
UAA 11/06 est
V 10/28 est
VZ 10/21 BMO
WMT 11/20 BMO
https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture
The Big Picture
Last Updated: 10-Oct-25 09:27 ET | Archive
Disappointing earnings guidance need not apply for bull market job
Briefing.com Summary:
*A premium P/E multiple implies the stock market is expecting strong Q3 earnings and upbeat guidance.
*In a rare move, analysts raised their earnings estimates in aggregate during the third quarter.
*Earnings results need to be on point, or many points will be taken off stock prices.
Over the next four weeks or so, there is some very good news coming—or at least the stock market is of the belief that very good news is coming. We are referring not only to earnings results for the third quarter but also to the earnings guidance that will be accompanying the reports.
Our assessment of the stock market’s mindset is rooted in a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 23.0x that is a 24% premium to the 10-year average and a 36% premium to the 25-year average.
You don’t get an earnings multiple like that if you think bad news is coming.
A Cumulus Earnings Cloud
Estimates compiled by FactSet show a blended third-quarter earnings growth rate of 8.1% for the S&P 500. That is up from 7.1% at the end of the second quarter. That may not sound like a big change, but it is a big deal because analysts typically lower their earnings estimates during the quarter.
The last time analysts raised their estimates in aggregate during a quarter was the fourth quarter of 2021, according to FactSet. The takeaway is that expectations are high going into this reporting period.
We can understand why. The dollar is weaker; the AI buildout is stronger; capital markets activity is hotter; the tax outlook is brighter; consumer spending in aggregate has been solid; tariff concerns have moderated; and expectations for multiple rate cuts before year-end are prevalent.
The silver lining on this cumulus earnings cloud is that earnings growth is typically two to three percentage points higher than what is expected going into the reporting period. Of course, that is typically off a lower starting base, but that is not the case going into this reporting period.
If S&P 500 companies live up to the historical precedent, good earnings news will indeed be stronger than expected as opposed to stronger than lowered estimates.
Must Be on Point
The investment banks seem destined to lead off the reporting period on a high note. Much is going their way, including a revival of the IPO market and a stock market at record highs, which are mutually inclusive. The element that will matter most to the market, though, is the commentary on credit quality.
What the banks say there will influence perceptions about the economy and how that translates into earnings growth prospects. Again, everything said during this reporting period, and not just by the banks, will be viewed through the lens of what it means for the earnings growth outlook.
That is the fate of a market trading with a premium valuation. The guidance must be on point, or many points will be taken off stock prices.
It goes without saying, but we will say it anyway: that is especially true for the mega-cap stocks specifically and growth stocks in general. They have been the thoroughbreds pacing the market to record highs.
In fact, the S&P 500 information technology sector is expected to deliver a command earnings performance for the third quarter. Its blended growth rate is 20.8%, according to FactSet. That translates to a 4.58 percentage point contribution—or more than half—to the overall growth rate.
The bulk of the residual is expected to be delivered by the financial sector (2.21 percentage points). The energy, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and health care sectors are currently expected to detract ever so slightly (i.e., 0.2 percentage points or less) from earnings growth.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The earnings results and guidance shared over the next several weeks will be an influential factor in determining if the stock market has a so-called “melt-up” into year-end or a meltdown. Investors have been treated to one good earnings reporting period after another, in aggregate, for some time.
There is a palpable feeling today that this third-quarter reporting period will be no different. However, if this time is different, it won’t be a good outcome for a stock market that is priced somewhere between needing to be reassured by what it hears and hoping to be positively surprised.
That is what trading at 23x forward 12-month earnings implies. Disappointing earnings guidance need not apply for the job of keeping this bull market going.
—Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com
Where will our markets end this week?
Higher
DJIA – Bullish
SPX – Bullish
COMP – Bullish
Where Will the SPX end October 2025?
10-15-2025 +2,0%
10-06-2025 +2.0%
09-29-2025 -2.0%
Earnings:
Mon: FAST,
Tues: C, DPZ, JNJ, GS, WFC, JPM,
Wed: ABT, FHN, MS, PNC, BAC
Thur: BK, SCHW, USB, CSX, IBKR, KEY,
Fri: AXP, ALV, SLB
Econ Reports:
Mon:
Tue
Wed: MBA, CPI, Core CPI, Empire Manufacturing
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Phil Fed, PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales, Retail ex-auto, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing
Fri: Housing Starts, Building Permits, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Net TIC Flows,
How am I looking to trade?
Time to start protecting for earnings
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
info@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
Questions???
Senator John Kennedy Predicts What Will Force Schumer to End Shutdown
DCNF)—Republican Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy said on Fox Business Monday that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will ultimately be forced to engineer an off-ramp to end the ongoing government shutdown.
The government shutdown continues after Schumer led most Democrats in voting down the Republicans’ spending bill early Wednesday morning. Appearing on “Kudlow,” Kennedy said the shutdown has little to do with policy disputes and everything to do with Schumer’s political standing within his caucus.
“It will end eventually, when Senator Schumer goes to six or eight of his members and Democrats and says, ‘Do me a favor. Vote to open it back up. I may have to criticize you. I’m not going to vote with you, but I need a way out of this,’” Kennedy told host Larry Kudlow. “I need an offer. And that’s what’s going to happen. But he’s got to be careful because if it looks contrived, he’s boning. And he can’t look like he’s having a mutiny. But that’s how we’ll open back.”
Kennedy said Schumer is stalling to appease what he described as the “moon wing” of the Democratic Party despite knowing they will never fully embrace him.
“I know him. Well, this shutdown is not about policy. It’s about politics. And Senator Schumer, this is what’s going on. He is trying to get the moon wing, the socialist wing of the Democratic Party, which is in control to love him. And they will never love him,” Kennedy added. “They won’t. He’d be better off doing what he did back in March and just calling it like he saw it and keeping government open. Because what he’s saying, we’re going to keep government shut down until you Republicans and President Trump give the Democrats $1.5 trillion, and they’re going to tell us how to spend it.”
Kennedy took to the Senate floor Friday and accused Democrats of holding the government hostage to restore millions in what he called wasteful foreign projects. He said lawmakers had already removed the provisions, but the party’s far-left wing is now threatening to prolong the shutdown unless the funding is reinstated.
Kennedy said Democrats are demanding the return of spending items that Republicans had already removed, including millions for overseas LGBTQ programs, sex worker workshops, and electric buses in Rwanda. He also cited funding for Palestinian media, pride parades, and sterilization efforts abroad as part of what he called wasteful foreign projects Democrats want reinstated.
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Scary Financial Mistakes: Navigating New Retirement Landscape Can Be Scary for Business Owners
by Edward “Ed” V. O’Neal, Benjamin F. Edwards, SVP and Manager, Retirement Plans
October 8, 2025
As we get closer to one of the most popular family holidays of the year, Halloween, thoughts turn to activities like viewing scary movies and finding the perfect Halloween party costume. But for many business owners looking to establish a retirement plan for themselves or their employees, the past few years have seemed like being trapped in a haunted house! Recent retirement plan legislation, such as The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act 2.0, has significantly shifted the retirement plan landscape for all retirement plan sponsors.
While the legislation was massive in scale, there were some important recurring themes throughout the regulation, such as covering more employees in work-based retirement plans and enhancing overall employee retirement saving levels. Adding to the scary aspect for business owners is that these retirement changes are being implemented in phases with some provisions already in place, while others become effective over the next two to three years. A few specific provisions under SECURE Act 2.0 have started to generate some attention in the retirement marketplace.
Enhanced Catch-Up Contribution Limit for Salary Deferral Plans
Generally, retirement plans that permit elective employee salary deferrals also allow employees age 50+ to make special catch-up contributions in addition to the annual elective deferral limit. For example, the 2025 age 50+ catch-up contribution limit is $3,500* for a SIMPLE IRA and is $7,500 for a 401(k), 403(b) or governmental 457(b) plan.
Beginning this year (2025), select participants in SIMPLE IRA, 401(k), 403(b) and governmental 457(b) plans may make an enhanced catch-up contribution to these plans. Specifically, participants ages 60 to 63 can increase their catch-up contribution to $11,250 (instead of $7,500) within 401(k), 403(b) and governmental 457(b) plans. And for SIMPLE IRAs, participants ages 60 to 63 can increase their catch-up contribution to $5,250 (instead of $3,500). However, there are a few things to keep in mind regarding this new contribution provision:
- Recent regulations have clarified that retirement plans currently offering regular catch-up contributions have the option to also include the age 60 to 63 enhanced catch-up contribution, but are not required to.
- The enhanced catch-up contribution limit for SIMPLEs, 401(k)s, 403(b)s and governmental 457(b)s will be indexed for inflation (the cost-of-living adjustment, or “COLA”) annually.
- The new enhanced catch-up contribution for plan participants aged 60 to 63 replaces the regular age 50+ catch-up contribution—participants cannot contribute to both.
- In the calendar year when a plan participant attains age 64, they will be limited to only the regular age 50+ catch-up contribution.
Mandatory Roth Catch-Up Contributions for High Earners
Catch-up contributions in retirement plans for employees age 50+ have been available for some time now and have become an effective way for plan participants to boost their retirement savings. And the previously highlighted new enhanced catch-up contribution (for employees age 60 to 63) now provides even greater opportunity for plan participants to turbocharge their retirement savings.
Historically, plan participants had the option to designate catch-up contributions as pretax or Roth (based on the language of the plan document). SECURE Act 2.0 now mandates that employees with wages over $145,000 will be required to make catch-up contributions as a Roth contribution. This will require business owners with an existing retirement plan that does not currently permit Roth contributions to amend their plan to incorporate a Roth feature, if they intend to permit their high earning employees to take advantage of catch-up contributions. This provision of the SECURE Act 2.0 will be generally effective in 2026, with a grace period for business owners to make a reasonable, good faith effort to comply with the final Roth catch-up regulations until 2027.
While we may still see additional guidance and clarification from the IRS on these exciting new retirement provisions, it’s clear that the next few years will bring some significant changes to the retirement plan landscape for both business owners and plan participants. And although the need to stay abreast of all the retirement changes may seem overwhelming and frightening right now for business owners, these new provisions will make it easier for business owners and employees to meet their retirement goals.
Consider speaking with your financial advisor for any questions related to the impact of recent legislation on employer retirement plans and retirement savings strategies.
CNBC Daily Open: He who controls the rare earth metals, controls tech’s future
Published Thu, Oct 9 20259:01 PM EDTUpdated 3 Hours Ago
Lim Hui Jie@in/hui-jie-lim-a7371176/
Key Points
- China tightens rare earth exports…
- …which sends rare earth stocks surging.
- Ferrari shares hit the brakes.
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreat.
- How to hedge a gold pullback.
In the 1984 science fiction film Dune, Baron Vladimir Harkonnen uttered the famous quote that can aptly be used to describe rare earth metals: “He who controls the spice, controls the universe.”
The spice was central to the Dune universe, allowing trade to flourish and planets to prosper. In the same way, rare earth metals seem to be the spice today.
These metals are used in almost every electronic device, from smartphones and cars, to ballistic missiles.
In a sweeping move Thursday, China has tightened export rules on these critical materials, asserting dominance over the global tech supply chain.
The new measures mean companies need to apply for a licence from Beijing to export any products containing Chinese-sourced rare earth metals, while companies tied to foreign militaries or placed on export-control or watch lists will be denied permits.
China accounts for about 70% of the global supply and has repeatedly used critical minerals as a bargaining chip in trade discussions.
With a potential Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea soon, Beijing may be signalling its leverage ahead of high-stakes talks by tightening control over rare earth exports, and sending a message to the world that in the race for tech supremacy, it holds the high ground.
— CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.
China tightens rare earth exports… China has tightened export controls on rare earths and related technologies while barring its citizens from participating in unauthorized mining overseas. The latest restrictions came just weeks before a potential meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
… sending rare earth stocks surging. U.S. rare earth and critical mineral miners surged Thursday after China tightened restrictions on exports, fueling market speculation that the Trump administration will move more aggressively to invest in building out a domestic supply chain.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/trump-letitia-james-halligan-mortgage.html
Letitia James indicted after Trump called for charges against New York AG
Published Thu, Oct 9 20254:26 PM EDTUpdated 5 Min Ago
Kevin Breuninger@KevinWilliamB
Key Points
- New York Attorney General Letitia James was indicted by a grand jury in Virginia after evidence presented by a prosecutor hand-picked by President Donald Trump.
- Trump had recently called for criminal charges to be filed against James and former FBI Director James Comey, who was indicted in September.
- “This is what tyranny looks like. President Trump is using the Justice Department as his personal attack dog,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, James’s fellow New York Democrat.
A federal grand jury in Virginia on Thursday indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James on charges of bank fraud and false statements to a financial institution after a prosecutor hand-picked by President Donald Trump presented evidence to that panel.
James is a long-time antagonist of Trump, who recently publicly called for criminal charges to be filed against her and former FBI Director James Comey, the former FBI director.
Comey was indicted in late September by a grand jury that heard evidence from Lindsey Halligan, the same Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia who obtained the indictment Thursday against James.
James previously sued Trump in a civil case in New York that led to him and his company being held liable for business fraud.
The five-page indictment issued Thursday accuses James of making false statements in connection with a Fannie Mae-backed mortgage of about $109,600 that she obtained to buy a three-bedroom home in Norfolk, Virginia, in August 2020.
James, whose primary residence at the time was in Brooklyn, New York, is accused of lying on a rider to that mortgage, which required her to use the Norfolk home as a secondary residence and not rent the property, according to the indictment. But instead of using it as her second home, the indictment alleges, she rented it to a family of three.
The indictment alleges that James’ alleged total purported “ill-gotten gains” were only about $19,000 over the life of the loan she received. Most of that money was from savings James allegedly received from a lower interest rate on the mortgage than she would have had to pay if the home was classified as a rental investment property, the indictment says.
“No one is above the law. The charges as alleged in this case represent intentional, criminal acts and tremendous breaches of the public’s trust,” said Halligan in a statement after she obtained the indictment in Alexandria federal court.
“The facts and the law in this case are clear, and we will continue following them to ensure that justice is served,” Halligan said.
James, in a statement, called the charges “baseless” and said, “This is nothing more than a continuation of the president’s desperate weaponization of our justice system.”
“He is forcing federal law enforcement agencies to do his bidding, all because I did my job as the New York State Attorney General.”
Trump’s “own public statements make clear that his only goal is political retribution at any cost,” James said. “The president’s actions are a grave violation of our Constitutional order and have drawn sharp criticism from members of both parties.”
“His decision to fire a United States Attorney who refused to bring charges against me – and replace them with someone who is blindly loyal not to the law, but to the president – is antithetical to the bedrock principles of our country. This is the time for leaders on both sides of the aisle to speak out against this blatant perversion of our system of justice.”
James was ordered to make her first appearance in the case on Oct. 24 in U.S. District Court in Norfolk, Virginia. The case was assigned to Judge Jamar Walker, who was appointed to the bench in 2023 by then-President Joe Biden.
If convicted, James faces a maximum possible sentence of 30 years in prison and a fine of up to $1 million on each count. Any actual sentence would likely be much less severe given federal sentencing guidelines.
Halligan, on Sept. 25 obtained a criminal indictment against Comey, on charges related to his allegedly lying to Congress in 2020.
Halligan personally presented the evidence in Comey’s case, reportedly after other prosecutors balked at the idea. It is highly unusual for a U.S. Attorney to present a case to a grand jury.
Comey pleaded not guilty during a court appearance in Alexandria on Wednesday and was scheduled to stand trial on Jan. 5.
Halligan’s predecessor as acting U.S. Attorney, Erik Siebert, resigned on Sept. 19, shortly after Trump said he wanted him gone.
Siebert told Justice Department officials before he quit that “investigators found insufficient evidence to bring charges against Ms. James and had also raised concerns about a potential case against Mr. Comey,” The New York Times reported on the day he resigned.
Trump promptly tapped Halligan to replace Siebert.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul blasted the indictment of her fellow Democrat James.
“New Yorkers know @NewYorkStateAG James for her integrity, her independence, and her relentless fight for justice,” Hochul wrote in a post on X.
“What we’re seeing today is nothing less than the weaponization of the Justice Department to punish those who hold the powerful accountable,” the governor wrote.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said, “This is what tyranny looks like.
“President Trump is using the Justice Department as his personal attack dog, targeting Attorney General Tish James for the ‘crime’ of prosecuting him for fraud — and winning,” Schumer said. “One U.S. Attorney already refused this case. So, Trump hand-picked an unqualified hack that would go after another political enemy. This isn’t justice. It’s revenge. And it should horrify every American who believes no one is above the law.”
James’ indictment comes three days after MSNBC reported that a top prosecutor in Halligan’s office, Elizabeth Yusi, was resisting pressure to ask a grand jury to charge James.
“Yusi … has confided to co-workers that she sees no probable cause to believe James engaged in mortgage fraud, the two sources told MSNBC,” that report on Monday said.
Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, in April, made a criminal referral against James with the U.S. Justice Department, saying she had, in multiple instances, falsified bank documents and property records in connection with the Norfolk home.
James’ lawyer, Abbe Lowell, in a statement Thursday to NBC News, said, “Attorney General James flatly and forcefully denies these charges.”
“We are deeply concerned that this case is driven by President Trump’s desire for revenge,” Lowell said. “When a President can publicly direct charges to be filed against someone – when it was reported that career attorneys concluded none were warranted — it marks a serious attack on the rule of law. We will fight these charges in every process allowed in the law.”
Pulte has made similar accusations about purported mortgage fraud against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
Trump cited those claims in August when he tried to fire Cook, who, like James, is the first Black woman to hold her position. A federal district court judge blocked Trump from removing Cook while her lawsuit challenging her termination was pending.
The Supreme Court on Oct. 1 said Cook could remain in her post pending the outcome of oral arguments over the dispute, which are set for January.
Cook, who is being represented in her lawsuit by Lowell, has not been criminally charged.
In early September, James asked New York state’s highest court to overturn an appeals court’s decision tossing out the $500 million penalty imposed on Trump and his company in the business fraud case.
″I stand strongly behind my office’s litigation against the Trump Organization,” James said in her statement on Thursday.
“We conducted a two-year investigation based on the facts and evidence – not politics,” she said. “Judges have upheld the trial court’s finding that Donald Trump, his company, and his two sons are liable for fraud.”
“I am a proud woman of faith, and I know that faith and fear cannot share the same space,” James said.
“And so today I am not fearful, I am fearless, and as my faith teaches me, no weapon formed against me shall prosper. We will fight these baseless charges aggressively, and my office will continue to fiercely protect New Yorkers and their rights. And I will continue to do my job.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/capital-gains-tax-2026-federal.html
IRS unveils higher capital gains tax brackets for 2026
Published Thu, Oct 9 202510:32 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Oct 9 20252:47 PM EDT
Kate Dore, CFP®, EA@in/katedore/
Key Points
- The IRS has announced the long-term capital gains brackets for 2026, which apply to investments owned for more than one year.
- For 2026, single filers can earn up to $49,450 in taxable income — or $98,900 for married couples filing jointly — and still pay 0% for long-term capital gains.
- You calculate taxable income by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income.
- The IRS announcements come a day after the agency said it would furlough nearly half its workforce due to the ongoing government shutdown.
The IRS has unveiled higher capital gains tax brackets for 2026.
In its announcement Thursday, the agency boosted the taxable income limits for the long-term capital gains brackets, which apply to assets owned for more than one year.
It also increased figures for dozens of other provisions, including federal income tax brackets, the estate and gift tax exemption, and eligibility for the earned income tax credit, among others.
The IRS announcements come a day after the agency said it would furlough nearly half its workforce due to the ongoing government shutdown.
The capital gains rate you pay is based on which bracket you fall into based on taxable income.
You calculate taxable income by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income. For 2026, the standard deduction will rise to $16,100 for single filers and $32,200 for married couples filing jointly.
Starting in 2026, single filers will qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $49,450 or less and married couples filing jointly are eligible with $98,900 or less.
1 comment
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