HI Market View Commentary 09-15-2025
OK let’s start with Charlie Kirk: All IN !!!, Debater, Prepared, spent lots of extra time knowing the facts and where the facts from, and he was will to talk with everyone, For the future voters, have to do something very hard,
You can’t forget !!!
Last week you guys should be very happy with your portfolios
I’m 100% Scared to die !!!
Charlie got promoted and he’s now living with Christ, IF YOU BELIEVE, Jesus rose and lived on third day!!!!
We are waiting for a Fed rate cut and a dot pattern showing continued rate cuts
Progress with China trade agreement
7 Trillion on the sidelines
Earnings
MU 09/23
https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture
The Big Picture
Last Updated: 12-Sep-25 14:54 ET | Archive
A record $7 trillion+ in money market funds is facing pay cuts
Briefing.com Summary:
*Real returns for money market funds are eroding with inflation near 3% and rate cuts on the way.
*Liquidity and safety keep money market funds attractive, but yield compression will drive partial outflows.
*Cash migration depends on confidence that rate cuts sustain growth without reigniting inflation.
Can you hear it with the major indices rallying to new record highs? That is the sound of rate cuts coming. But even if you can’t hear it, you can see it in the fed funds futures market.
There is a 100% probability of at least a 25-basis-point cut to 4.00-4.25% at the September FOMC meeting, an 86.3% probability of at least a 25-basis-point cut to 3.75-4.00% at the October meeting, and an 80.9% probability of at least a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
That is rather remarkable with inflation hovering closer to 3.0% than 2.0%, and the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model estimating real GDP growth of 3.1% on an annualized basis for the third quarter. That hasn’t typically been a combination screaming for rate cuts, but with nonfarm payroll growth slowing to stall speed in recent months, Fed officials are sounding more motivated by the employment side of their mandate to justify a rate cut, at least at the September FOMC meeting.
The stock market is loving the idea, partly because the Treasury market has been pricing in the idea, too, leading to lower market rates that have provided stocks with some extra valuation allowance on the premise that the lower rates will facilitate ongoing economic and earnings growth.
The stock market, though, may also just be loving the idea that there are gobs of cash on the sidelines that may soon be looking for a higher-yielding home.
Seven Trillion and Counting
Currently, there is over $7 trillion sitting in money market mutual funds. That is an all-time high, and it is roughly 13% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization.
Assets in money market funds surged during the COVID crisis and subsequently accelerated with the normalization of interest rates that followed the Fed’s rate-hike campaign in 2022 and 2023. In turn, they have surged with the stock market and home price appreciation that have been huge wealth-generating engines.
Separately, assets in money market funds have surged as part of a safe-haven trade tied to concerns about geopolitics, tariffs, and valuations. Money market funds offer a place to park cash and still generate income in a nearly risk-free way with higher yields than one would get in a normal savings account. Generally speaking, prime money market funds yield something on the order of 3.8% to 4.4% these days.
Money market funds typically invest in high-quality instruments with a shorter duration, like T-bills, certificates of deposit, commercial paper, and repurchase agreements, all of which can be easily exchanged for cash.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
Where the Federal Reserve’s policy rate goes, rates on shorter-duration instruments typically follow. One can infer, then, with the fed funds futures market pricing in three rate cuts before the end of the year, that the yields on money market funds are apt to be coming down in the months ahead, assuming the market has things right.
The far right side of the chart above shows a trendline break between the 3-month T-bill yield and the effective fed funds rate. The chart below captures that break in closer detail, and what it reveals is a market frontrunning the rate cut(s).
It is notable that the inflation rate is closer to 3.0%, so returns on money market funds are coming down on an inflation-adjusted basis, diminishing some of their appeal when real rates were higher. It is an inflection point that will send some (not all) money market fund investors looking elsewhere for higher real rates of return.
The ongoing appeal of money market funds is that they are highly liquid, nearly risk-free, and still offer a better return than anything one can get in a basic savings account, which is why “all” investors won’t be fleeing money market funds simply because the Fed is cutting rates. Also, they are good parking spots for investors with more immediate cash needs.
We would expect some migration to other parts of the market, however, that have higher-yielding appeal. That would include Treasuries with longer duration, corporate bonds, and, yes, the stock market, which holds much more risk but appealing return potential on a nominal and real basis.
To be sure, no one is scurrying out of their money market fund to capture a 1.49% dividend yield for the S&P 500. The rotation out of money market funds to the stock market would be about total return and an expectation that the stock market will retain its bullish bias.
With $7 trillion-plus facing pay cuts, so to speak, higher returns will be sought elsewhere. That may just work in the stock market’s favor if confidence in the rate cut approach is corroborated by the future data.
—Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com
Where will our markets end this week?
Lower
DJIA – Bullish
SPX – Bullish
COMP – Bullish
Where Will the SPX end September 2025?
09-15-2025 0.0%
09-08-2025 -2.0%
09-02-2025 -2.0%
08-25-2025 -2.0%
Earnings:
Mon:
Tues:
Wed: CBRL, GIS
Thur: DRI, FDX, LEN
Fri:
Econ Reports:
Mon: Empire,
Tue Retail Sales, Retail ex-trans, NAHB Housing Market index, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Import, Export,
Wed: MBA, Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC Rate Decision
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Phil Fed, Leading Indicators,
Fri: MONTHLY OPTYIONS EXPIRATION
How am I looking to trade?
Time to start protecting after a rate cut / 2% jump in the market for historical downturn,
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
info@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
Questions???
What are doing with MU now that I thit its yearly target price?
I know someone that added ATM or ITM short calls
Some are holding for earnings with $157.50 long puts
Sold off shares, we added 160/200 Jun 26 Bull calls = We might be wrong, the stock can go higher
Performative or pragmatic? Why Boeing planes feature so much in Trump trade deals
Published Mon, Sep 8 202510:40 PM EDTUpdated Tue, Sep 9 20258:18 AM EDT
Lim Hui Jie@in/hui-jie-lim-a7371176/
Key Points
- Boeing jets frequently feature in trade deals struck by the Trump administration.
- Countries such as South Korea, Japan, the UK, Malaysia, and Indonesia have placed large orders for Boeing aircraft as part of trade negotiations.
President Donald Trump speaks at the debut of the Boeing South Carolina Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner in North Charleston, South Carolina, U.S., February 17, 2017.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump has upended the traditional global trading environment, in some cases even undermining free trade agreements with partners in favor of bilateral deals that appear to be light on details but heavy on symbolism.
One recurring symbol: Boeing aircraft.
Since Trump announced tariffs in April, a pattern has emerged. Countries that strike trade deals with the U.S. often announce large orders for Boeing jets.
For example, during South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s visit to Washington, Korean Air announced an order for 103 Boeing aircraft valued at $36.2 billion. That order, combined with another $13.7 billion deal with GE Aerospace is reportedly the largest deal in the airline’s history.
As part of its deal, Japan also placed an order for 100 Boeing jets, although the value of the order was not disclosed. Even smaller economies such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia have included Boeing purchases in their trade agreements.
Even the UK placed a $10 billion order for Boeing aircraft as part of its trade deal with the U.S. in May, according to Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick. Days later, British Airways’ parent IAG announced an order for 32 Boeing jets on May 9, totaling $12.7 billion.
Why aircraft — and why Boeing?
Why is Boeing such a fixture in Trump’s deals? The first reason: it looks good for the president.
John Grant, founder of aviation consultancy Midas Aviation told CNBC that ”[the] simple answer is that planes are high profile and Trump always wants profile.”
“Aircraft are very visible statements of trade and have a high value, making them particularly attractive in such agreements between countries,” he added.
Wendy Cutler, Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted that these high-value deals allow countries to demonstrate their commitment to reducing bilateral trade surpluses with the U.S — the reason Trump gave to invoke emergency powers for imposing tariffs.
Aircraft orders also come with several other advantages. Unlike commodities such as steel or rice, planes are less likely to ruffle any feathers when it comes to domestic industries.
“Imports of these airplanes are not politically difficult for most trading partners of the U.S., unlike metals or agricultural imports,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier.
Japan, for example, has long protected its rice industry, while South Korea is a major steel exporter to the U.S. — making reciprocal purchases of American steel impractical. Seoul was the fourth-largest exporter of steel to the U.S. in 2024, according to the International Trade Administration under the U.S. Commerce Department.
Moreover, aircraft orders typically span years. Boeing’s production backlog stands at 11.5 years, according to market research firm Forecast International, while Airbus trails slightly at 10.6 years.
This long delivery window means that airlines from countries entering into deals with Trump can announce purchases without any immediate financial strain.
But its not all performative.
The international tourism industry is on an upswing, and U.S. made passenger aircraft are the ideal item to include in any trade deal with Trump, said Lombard Odier’s Lee. “They’re actually needed.”
According to the International Air Transport Association, global airline net profits are projected to reach $36 billion in 2025, up from $32.4 billion in 2024, with profit margins rising to 3.7%. Total revenue is expected to hit a record $979 billion, up 1.3% from last year.
Beyond economics, Boeing carries symbolic weight. “It’s an iconic American company,” said Cutler. And with the aircraft manufacturing industry effectively a duopoly between Boeing and Airbus, options are limited.
Boeing figures in Trump’s deals despite safety scandals including a door panel blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight in 2024.
Whistleblower allegations and production quality concerns have dogged the company, but Grant noted that Boeing has introduced improvements that airlines are beginning to see firsthand.
A Reuters report in August revealed that airline bosses have expressed more confidence in Boeing’s ability to deliver jets at the “right quality.”
CNBC did not immediately receive a reply from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative for comments.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/alphabet-3-trillion-market-cap.html
Alphabet becomes fourth company to reach $3 trillion market cap
Published Mon, Sep 15 202510:10 AM EDTUpdated 10 Min Ago
Key Points
- Google parent Alphabet reached a market cap of $3 trillion.
- The company added billions of dollars in value in September following a favorable antitrust ruling.
- The milestone comes a little over 20 years after Google’s market debut and 10 years after the creation of Alphabet.
Alphabet has joined the $3 trillion club.
Shares of the search giant jumped more than 4% on Monday, pushing the company into territory occupied only by Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple.
The company ended the day with a market capitalization of $3.05 trillion by market’s close.
The stock got a big lift in early September from an antitrust ruling by a judge, whose penalties came in lighter than shareholders feared. The U.S. Department of Justice wanted Google to be forced to divest its Chrome browser, and last year a district court ruled that the company held an illegal monopoly in search and related advertising.
But Judge Amit Mehta decided against the most severe consequences proposed by the DOJ, which sent shares soaring to a record. After the big rally, President Donald Trump congratulated the company and called it “a very good day.”
Alphabet shares are now up more than 30% this year, compared with the 15% gain for the Nasdaq.
The $3 trillion milestone comes roughly 20 years after Google’s IPO and a little more than 10 years after the creation of Alphabet as a holding company, with Google its prime subsidiary.
CEO Sundar Pichai was named CEO of Alphabet in 2019, succeeding co-founder Larry Page. Pichai’s latest challenge has been the surge of new competition due to the rise of artificial intelligence, which the company has had to manage through while also fending off an aggressive set of regulators in the U.S. and Europe.
The rise of Perplexity and OpenAI ended up helping Google land the recent favorable antitrust ruling. The company’s hopes of becoming a major artificial intelligence player largely ride with Gemini, Google’s flagship suite of AI models.
Nvidia’s breakdown, dismal jobs report and other ills fail to slow down this bull market by much yet
Published Sat, Sep 6 20259:02 AM EDT
Michael Santoli@michaelsantoli
Bear-baiting is illegal in a majority of states that allow bear-hunting, but on Wall Street it’s happening right out in the open.
The markets have dangled in front of the bear den a weaker-than-hoped jobs report Friday, which took its three-month average payroll gain to minimal levels mostly seen ahead of recessions. Nvidia, the biggest stock in the universe and the principal vehicle of this bull market’s most propulsive theme, has fallen 8% and cracked below its 50-day average in seven trading days since posting a stellar quarter. Bitcoin has traced out a similar pullback pattern in breaching the same trend line, falling 10% from its August peak.
The most-coveted initial public offerings of recent months have been wretched since their Roman-candle rallies upon first listing: Figma, Circle, CoreWeave, Chime Financial and Bullish are all between 40-60% beneath their immediate post-pop peak. Let’s not forget that all of these ailments and injuries to the tape have struck in what is solidly the worst month historically for stock returns and against a backdrop of generous equity valuations.
This daunting, if admittedly selective, litany of ills has merely slowed the bull market moderately, prompting some fortuitous rotation from previous leaders to 2025 laggards, leaving the S&P 500 up 10% for the year and less than 1% and one day removed from an all-time high.
Friday’s action — a modest S&P decline after a downside reversal from an initial post-payrolls pop – is a bit of a microcosm of the market’s mode since midsummer. The sizable shortfall in August job growth – just 22,000, a third of the forecast number – galvanized an already solid market expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut the week after next. But a somewhat firmer jobs print would have done the same, and the report triggered a ferocious rally in Treasuries and downside reversal in bank and consumer-cyclical stocks that reflected wavering confidence that this rate cut would be happening in a resilient economy.
Before long, though, traders executed the silver linings playbook, bidding up rate-sensitive housing stocks, goosing the small-cap Russell 2000 and embracing a powerful rally in Broadcom shares after a blowout profit report and outlook, allowing another pass of the AI heavyweight mantle of leadership to new names. This week it was Broadcom, Alphabet and Apple over Nvidia and Microsoft. (Over the past two years, Broadcom’s stock appreciation has now outpaced Nvidia’s, 283% to 244%. Together, they make up 10% of the S&P 500. For the sake of the nation’s retirees-to-be, this AI silicon revolution had better last a while.)
How desperately does economy need Fed’s help?
On the macro front, there’s no doubt that the jobs report turned up the level of concern about the economy’s growth pace by a few clicks, while putting some pressure on the not-insignificant camp of economic handicappers who have been calling for an incipient reacceleration in U.S. growth. Bank of America economists – part of that camp – on Friday backed away from their prediction of no rate cuts this year, penciling in two cuts, due both to the jobs data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s expressed “reaction function” emphasizing downside risks to employment over sticky and tariff-influenced inflation.
It also helps that there are asterisks and extenuating circumstances around the labor data this year. No, not the accuracy of the numbers themselves, but the pronounced drop in foreign-born workers and ongoing aging of the population that are depressing the total labor pool. Estimates of the minimal monthly payroll gain needed to hold the unemployment rate steady are down a lot, perhaps below 50,000. So, it’s been possible to be reasonably upbeat about the GDP pace thanks to capex, a resilient services economy, ample Federal deficits and wealth-effect spending by high earners, while not expecting much from job gains. Even within the jobs report, some found reassurance, pointing to an uptick in prime-age workers employed.
As a general matter, it’s hard for incremental evidence to dislodge an entrenched macro narrative that’s been affirmed by market action itself. Such is the case currently, with the notion that the Fed can cut rates without the economy desperately needing the help, with stocks at a record, credit spreads tight and layoffs running at a relative trickle.
And will lower short-term rates help? For stocks, the sample size is small, but in the past when the Fed has resumed rate cuts after a pause of at least six months, the forward performance was quite good.
As for the real economy, a case can be made there’s room for some relief. Ned Davis Research constructed a Main Street Financial Conditions Index, using real home prices, consumer-loan availability and other metrics, which here is shown to be dramatically tighter than public-financial-market gauges.
Ned Davis Research
If Powell is shown not to be “too late” in making policy rates less restrictive, then the recent tumble in Treasury yields and reduction in mortgage rates, along with a fresh supply-driven breakdown in crude-oil prices, should fluff the cushion beneath consumers. Tariffs are a regressive and haphazard tax on consumers, businesses and global efficiency, and their full effect hasn’t yet shown through, but that doesn’t mean they’re damaging enough to derail the economy.
Valuation concerns
These hopeful sentiments help explain why the market has held in as well as it has rather than arguing for a blast higher from here. On the whole, truly extreme optimism or aggressive positioning are not among this market’s issues, though investor equity allocations are full and the dip-buying impulse remains strong.
Sell-side strategists’ index targets collectively are quite conservative, the average and median year-end bogey right around current index levels. It’s true, as so many are quick to remind us these days, that equity valuation is a poor timing tool, particularly when earnings are growing and the Fed in easing mode. No denying this reality, but it sets a higher bar for longer-term returns.
FactSet
And is it pure coincidence that the S&P 500 forward P/E during this near-three-year bull market has stalled a handful of times upon reaching current levels around 22.5 and that the Nasdaq 100 P/E has bumped its head on an apparent ceiling at 28?
Or is this just more bait set out for frustrated, hapless bears?
More Americans are tapping their 401(k)s for cash—it should be a ‘last resort,’ says CFP
Published Fri, Aug 29 202511:38 AM EDT
When faced with a financial emergency, Americans are increasingly tapping their retirement accounts to come up with the cash.
Last year, some 4.8% of plan participants took hardship withdrawals from 401(k) plans, according to Vanguard, up from 3.6% in 2023.
As Vanguard researchers note, the prevalence of automatic enrollment means that more workers than ever now have workplace plans — especially those with inconsistent or unreliable income. And legislative changes have made it easier than ever to make a hardship withdrawal, which allows investors to take money out of retirement accounts penalty-free provided its used for an “immediate and heavy” financial need.
If something like that comes up, it can be tempting to look toward the (hopefully) big pile of money you have saved for retirement to see you through it. But generally speaking, you should look elsewhere, says Paul Brahim, a certified financial planner and president of the Financial Planning Association.
“It should really only be a last resort,” he says.
Avoid withdrawing money early from retirement accounts
If you need money in a pinch, your retirement account is a bad choice for a couple reasons, Brahim says.
For one thing, any money that you take out of a traditional 401(k) before age 59 ½ is subject to income tax. Plus if the money isn’t taken out to deal with a hardship, such as medical or funeral expenses, you’ll owe an extra 10% penalty.
Plus, he says “the amount you took out is no longer compounding toward your retirement,” he says. It doesn’t take too long playing around with a compound interest calculator to see that any dollar you take out now is going to be worth much more to you by the time you’re ready to retire.
“It’s a very, very expensive way to access money,” Brahim says.
So what are the alternatives?
Ideally, it’s your emergency fund. Financial pros generally recommend stashing three to six months’ worth of expenses in cash for when pressing money situations arise. That way, you don’t have to derail your other plans to come up with the cash.
If putting aside that much cash sounds daunting, even a relatively modest cash cushion can help. Plan participants with $2,000 set aside tended to contribute more to retirement accounts and were far less likely to make early withdrawals, according to recent research from Vanguard.
If an emergency fund isn’t an option though, there are still other moves to consider before tapping your retirement funds, experts say.
401(k) loan
Rules vary from employer to employer, but many will allow you to take a loan from your 401(k) plan. You can typically borrow the lesser of $50,000 or 50% of the vested balance of your account. From there, you’ll generally have five years to pay the loan back, with interest — generally at a rate of 1% to 2% plus the prime rate, currently about 7.5%.
The upside here is that you can access some money now without a major tax implication and pay yourself back over time.
There are some drawbacks. Leave your company and your entire balance comes due at once. If you can’t come up with the cash to pay it off, the amount you owe is treated as a withdrawal — subject to tax and a 10% penalty. The same thing happens if you miss the 5-year deadline.
And while the money you put into your account is tax-exempt, you pay back your loan with post-tax dollars. Then you pay tax when you eventually withdraw the money.
“That money is essentially double-taxed at retirement,” Brahim says.
Tapping home equity
If you own a home, you may be able to tap your equity — the difference between your home’s market value and the balance on your mortgage, or, more simply, the portion of your house you own outright — for cash.
A home equity loan is essentially a second mortgage borrowed against your property. You can generally receive between 80% to 85% of your home’s value to be paid back to your lender at a fixed rate — currently 8.22%, on average, according to Bankrate.
“It’s a quick way to get cash without a tax implication,” says Eric Bond, president of Octave Wealth Management. “You don’t have to sell anything, and it’s cheaper than using a credit card.” (The average interest rate on credit cards is more than 20%, according to Bankrate.)
While a home equity loan provides a lump sum to be paid back at a fixed rate, a similar vehicle known as a home equity line of credit (HELOC) comes with a variable rate and behaves more like a credit card, with an available amount of credit that replenishes when you make monthly payments.
Whether one or the other makes sense for you depends on the nature of your emergency, says Bond.
As with any loan, home equity products come with risks, such as damage to your credit or even losing your home if you fail to pay them back on time.
Absent an emergency fund, you’ll be left with unattractive options if you find yourself in a tricky financial situation, says Brahim. That’s why it’s important to plan and save for these scenarios, he says.
“That way, you can let your retirement plan do what it’s supposed to do,” he says.
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