HI Financial Services Mid-Week 01-28-2014

HI Financial Services
Mid-Week 01-28-2014

One of the funny things about the stock market is that
every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.
William Feather

What has been happening
so far this week?

What a volatile week we
have been in so far. The last two weeks
have also been full of volatility and surprises. I will admit I thought last Friday we would
bounce back. I also was pretty disappointed
in Monday. What a ride and we need to
take this understanding into the market when we trade. It is my belief that it is too volatile to trade. The market has an overall direction that has
been bearish until Tuesday but one up day does not make a trend. I know plenty of people who lost big
yesterday when the market was up 50, down 92, up 57 and then finishing down
40ish. Too much uncertainty to ride out
in a trade for most. Collar trading or
more of an investment approach has worked especially with a stock like AAPL, V,
or DIS.

Where will our market
end this week?

We will know on
Wednesday when we see the direction the FOMC will take on tapering. Will they hold off and remain at 75
billion. Will they taper another 10
billion or will they increase the quantitative easing back to 85 billion an
month? Their decision will set the tone
the rest of the week and will be able to dictate the ending of the month. Don’t forget the expected increase in the GDP
numbers on Thursday.

DJIA – Bounce off of the
15,800 support level. We have a definite
crossover on the 5 and 20 day EMA’s. We
also broke below the 50-SMA. Technical bearish crossovers have occurred but we
have an apparent bounce off an almost oversold RSI.

SPX – The SPX mirrors
the DJIA except the support level it is testing is 1780. 1767 is truly the level to watch since it
sits on a base that was built over months starting the end of October.

COMP – We are testing
the 50-SMA right now. Look for a bounce
off this level as the bullish run continues.
If not we could see a serious drop due to profit taking over a several
year period.

Where Will the SPX end
January 2013?

I am not seeing my
expectation as a possible ending for the month.
I do have some earnings but it will probably not continue the bullish
run this month

12-02-2013

1900 or higher –

      My vote is technically 1883.4 up 3% from
today

1875
–

1850
–

1825 –

1800 or lower
–

What is on tap for the
rest of the week?=

Earnings:

Tues:
AKS, AMGN, DHI, NUE, F, NUE,
PFE, VMW, YHOO

Wed:
VLO, BA, DOW, EMC, LVS, JBLU,
FB, QCOM, QLGC,

Thur:
MMM, MO, AMZN, CELG, CL, COP,XOM,
HOG, HSY, NEM,

PHM, RTN, V WHR

Fri: CVX,
MA, TSN

Econ Reports

Tues: Durable
Goods, Durable ex-auto, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence

Wed: MBA, FOMC
Rate Decision

Thur: Initial Claims,
Continuing Claims, GDP-adv, GDP Deflator, Pending Home Sales

Fri:
Personal Spending, Personal Income, PCE Prices,
Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment,

Int’l:

Tues –

Wed –

Thurs – EMU: EC Economic
Sentiment

Friday – CN: CFLP
Manufacturing PMI, EMU: Unemployment Rate

Sunday – SUPERBOWL

How I am looking to
trade?

I am preparing for
earnings by collars or Protective put trades.
Here are some of them

AAPL with 550 March 14
Long Puts

BIDU with 170 March 14
Long Puts

This was taken on Monday. Notice the delta’s and know the delta increased on AAPL to over .80 which means I am making $0.80 on every dollar drop on AAPL