HI Market View Commentary 01-27-2025
What happened today in the stock market to make it go down -1.46%?
NVDA tanked = DeepSeek launched a free open source large language model AI for $6 Million
Chinese aren’t exceptional in the real world results
NVDA no-matter what they have they still need chips to run the computers
Short answer I would also expect NVDA to come back pretty quickly
S&P 500 down -1.46 Rough day But this week is earnings and Rate Cut “Opportunity” on Wednesday
We don’t know the future, we do a lot research and we collar trade to protect to the downside
It has been proven since 2006 that if you can make up something on the way down, convert to shares you will outpace the market in the long run.
We should be working for you= we watch the markets every day, we add protection when it is most likely to see stock lose value, we know what you are individually in because we are in the same thing
YOU SAID…… Diversification is not …… Protection
But it doesn’t mean in what we do I can’t help out.
Buffet “when you don’ know what you are doing you should put your money into a fund”
YOU SAID…… Your Price targets were very accurate last year…….
Yes they represented where the stocks might be in twelve months
If I modeling the stock market I DO NOT think it will be accurate
YOU SAID…… Anything you make on the way down is ………A profit on the way back up
Because you’re alternative is the buy and hold = you take your losses, pay someone to take those losses and then wait for the stocks/market to come back.
YOU SAID…… You dollar cost average without adding more money to the account…..We don’t go ask you to put more money into your account when we are wrong because we protect.
Mark Cuban Hedges his 1.9 Billion Dollar Yahoo stock Buyout
https://www.facebook.com/reel/799105172245718
Earnings dates:
AAPL 01/30 AMC
BA 01/28 BMO
BABA 02/06 BMO
BIDU 02/26 est BMO
DG 03/13 est BMO
DIS 02/05 BMO
F 02/05 AMC
GM 01/28 BMO
GOOGL 02/04 AMC
JCI 01/28 est BMO
KO 02/11 est BMO
LMT 01/28 BMO
META 01/29 AMC
MU 03/19 est AMC
NVDA 02/26 AMC
O 02/20 est AMC
SQ 02/20 AMC
TGT 03/12 est BMO
UAA 02/07 BMO
V 01/30 AMC
https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture
The Big Picture
Last Updated: 16-Jan-25 16:32 ET | Archive
CPI response better than CPI report
There was a significant rally in the stock market and the Treasury market following the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI). We’re not sure which was more surprising: that the stock market rallied like it did or that the markets thought the CPI report was actually good.
We will concede that the CPI news was better than expected, but to call it truly good is a stretch to assign causality to a rally that was more about a change in positioning than a change in position.
Off Target
The Federal Reserve’s inflation target is 2.0%. That target is tied to the PCE Price Index, which has different component weightings than the CPI does and captures the substitution effect that the CPI, which is based on a fixed basket of goods and services, does not.
Those are key reasons why PCE inflation, as well as core-PCE inflation, runs below CPI and core-CPI inflation. In any case, inflation is still running comfortably above the Fed’s 2.0% target, particularly core inflation which the Fed views as the better measure of long-run inflation trends since it excludes the volatile categories of food and energy.
Core-PCE inflation was up 2.8% year-over-year in November; meanwhile, core-CPI, which market participants were reportedly thrilled to see, was up 3.2% year-over-year on an unadjusted basis in December.
The excitement over that core-CPI number is that it was down from 3.3% in November — no doubt moving in the preferred direction but also leaving no doubt that it isn’t progressing to 2.0% in a rapid way. It should be noted that the “3.2%” was a more generous headline presentation versus the unrounded 3.24% number.
It is also worth pointing out that core-CPI has been between 3.2% and 3.3% (rounded) for the last seven months, so it doesn’t compute that a market worried about sticky inflation over that same period was suddenly overjoyed by an inflation reading it has bemoaned for most of that time.
| Core CPI | Yr/Yr % |
| June | 3.27 |
| July | 3.17 |
| August | 3.20 |
| September | 3.31 |
| October | 3.33 |
| November | 3.32 |
| December | 3.24 |
Source: BLS
Some other tells that the market didn’t see any real inflation relief in that CPI report included the following:
- The five-year breakeven inflation rate (a measure of what market participants expect inflation to be in the next five years, on average) barely budged the day of the report (Jan. 15). It settled at 2.52%, down three basis points from where it settled on the day of the PPI report (Jan. 14) but up one basis point from where it settled on Jan. 10 before all the “good inflation news” hit. It is essentially unchanged from where it was in October 2023.
- The fed funds futures market didn’t change its rate cut perspective. There is a 69.9% probability of the next rate cut happening at the June FOMC meeting (versus 72.8% a week ago) and a 54.2% probability of a second rate cut at the December FOMC meeting (versus 54.2% a week ago), according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- Gold futures, which garner interest as an inflation hedge, increased 1.3% after the CPI report and were up 1.2% for the week as of this writing.
Countervailing Forces
The December CPI report was not devoid of encouraging information. Arguably, the most encouraging development was the disinflation in the lagging shelter index, which is the most heavily weighted component in the CPI report. It was up 4.6% year-over-year on an unadjusted basis, which is the lowest rate of inflation since January 2022.
This component is definitely headed in the right direction but countervailing inflation forces are in play, namely rising oil and natural gas prices, the elevated prices-paid indexes in the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI reports, President-elect Trump’s push to use tariffs to attack U.S. trade deficits with other countries, and policies aimed at deporting illegal immigrants.
The strong dollar will help temper some inflation pressures but, again, breakeven inflation rates haven’t adjusted yet in a manner that would suggest the market has confidence in inflation getting back to the Fed’s 2.0% target and staying there.
What It All Means
So, why did the stock market and Treasury market rally like they did after the December Consumer Price Index? Call it a relief trade for markets that had been fretting sticky inflation, particularly the Treasury market, which had already seen the yield on the 10-yr note increase 100 basis points since the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points last September when core-CPI and core-PCE were at 3.3% and 2.7%, respectively.
It was the opposite of good news being priced in. In effect, bad inflation news had been priced in, so it became a rallying point when the month-over-month change for CPI (+0.4%) was in-line and slightly better than expected for core-CPI (+0.2%).
Some pundits were quick to label the report better than expected. The better description in our humble opinion was “better than feared,” which was good enough to ignite a trading rally and short-covering activity that produced outsized gains for the Treasury market and the stock market.
The 10-yr note yield, which saw 4.80% on January 14, settled at 4.65% on January 15. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 logged their best gains since November 6 (day after the election).
The summation is that both markets had gotten into a short-term oversold condition and were primed to bounce on any whiff of news that had a glint of positivity associated with it. The December CPI report fit that bill and, to be fair, had some marquis company with the better-than-expected earnings results from some of the nation’s largest financial institutions and the news of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.
The pacing in the Treasury market, though, made it clear that the CPI report was the primary catalyst for the relief rally given that stocks had been languishing in recent weeks as rates continued to rise.
They were going up at a time the market knew core-CPI was stuck between 3.2% and 3.3%. That didn’t change in December. The CPI report was better than feared, but with a 3-handle still on core-CPI, let’s not stretch the truth and call it good just yet.
—Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com
Where will our markets end this week?
Higher
DJIA – Bullish
SPX – Bullish
COMP – Bullish, Broke the 50 Day SMA
Where Will the SPX end January 2025?
01-27-2025 +2.4%
01-21-2025 +2.0%
01-13-2025 -2.0%
01-06-2025 +2.4%
Earnings:
Mon: T, NUE,
Tues: JBLU, KMB, RCL, SBUX, BA, GM, LMT, CB
Wed: GLW, GD, HESS, TMUS, VFC, IBM, LVS, LEVI, WDC, WHR, META, MSFT, TSLA,
Thur: MO, BX, CAT, CMCSA, IP, MA, MUR, NOC, PHM, CAH, UPS, VLO, INTC, SKYW, V, AAPL
Fri: CVX, CL, XOM, PSX
Econ Reports:
Mon: New Home Sales,
Tue Durable Goods, Durable ex-trans, FHFA Housing Market Index, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence
Wed: MBA, Fed Rate Decision
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, GDP, GDP Deflator, Pending Home Sales,
Fri: PCE Prices, PCE Core, Employment Cost Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending,
How am I looking to trade?
Now we are protecting for Q4 earnings in 2025
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
info@hurleyinvestments.com = Email
Questions???
Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’
Published Thu, Jan 23 202511:20 AM ESTUpdated Sat, Jan 25 20256:08 AM EST
Jeff Cox@jeff.cox.7528@JeffCoxCNBCcom
President Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’
President Donald Trump lobbed his first volley at the Federal Reserve, saying Thursday that he will apply pressure to bring down interest rates.
Speaking via video to an assembly of global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the new president in a wide-ranging policy speech did not mention the Fed by name but made clear he would seek lower rates.
“I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately,” Trump said. “And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us all over.”
The comments represented an initial strike at Fed officials, with whom he had a highly contentious relationship during his first term in office. He frequently criticized Chair Jerome Powell, who Trump appointed, on occasion calling policymakers “boneheads” and comparing Powell to a golfer who can’t putt.
President Donald Trump addresses the World Economic Forum in Davos
Stocks reacted slightly positive on the comments, with the Dow Jones Industrial average extending gains as Trump spoke and the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield edging a bit lower.
In the flurry of activity surrounding the president’s first week in office, he has not discussed his views on monetary policy. However, during the presidential campaign Trump indicated that he should get a say in interest rate decisions.
Speaking later in the day to reporters, Trump said he expects the Fed to listen to him and plans to speak to Powell “at the right time.”
For their part, Powell and his colleagues have emphasized the importance of Fed independence. Powell in particular frequently has insisted the central bank does not make decisions based on political considerations. Trump does not have statutory authority over the Fed, though he nominates members to the board of governors.
Fed independence is seen as essential to stable markets, though the central bank has come under fire in recent years for dismissing the inflation surge in 2021 as “transitory,” which led to a series of aggressive hikes.
Trump’s comments come less than a week before the Fed holds is two-day policy meeting that will conclude Wednesday.
Markets are assigning virtually no chance that the Fed will lower further its benchmark borrowing rate, which currently is targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5% following a full percentage point of cuts in the last four months of 2024. Traders are pricing in a first rate reduction likely coming in June and about a 50-50 probability of another move before the end of the year, according to CME Group data.
The Fed cut its funds rate after hiking it 5.25 percentage points in its efforts to battle inflation. Though inflation is still running above the central bank’s 2% mandate, officials have said policy does not need to be as restrictive as they see the pace of price increases moderating.
Trump blamed the inflation surge under former President Joe Biden on “wasteful deficit spending.”
“The result is the worst inflation crisis in modern history, and sky-high interest rates for our citizens and even throughout the world. Food prices and the price of almost every other thing known to mankind went through the roof,” he said.
A Fed official declined comment on Trump’s remarks.
Salt Lake, Ogden schools say immigrant students are welcome after Trump flips policy on raids
By Tim Vandenack, KSL.com | Posted – Jan. 23, 2025 at 6:20 a.m.
Ogden and Salt Lake City school officials sent messages to reassure immigrant students after a Trump administration policy change. (Tim Vandenack, KSL.com)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Salt Lake City and Ogden school officials are reassuring immigrant students that they’re welcome despite immigration policy changes.
- The Trump administration rescinded a policy dating to 2011 that had prohibited most immigration enforcement action in schools and churches.
- “Your child and every child, regardless of immigration status, is welcome and safe in our schools,” reads an Ogden School District statement.
SALT LAKE CITY — Following the Trump administration’s reversal on prior U.S. policy against carrying out immigration action at schools, Salt Lake City school officials are scrambling to determine the repercussions to the district’s “safe school” resolution.
The Salt Lake City School District’s legal adviser “is working to figure out what exactly the new guidance means to us and what the implications may be,” said Yándary Chatwin, the district spokeswoman. Ogden School District officials just last week reaffirmed their own “safe school” resolution, meant as a reassurance to immigrant students and families given fears of the potential for immigration raids.
Whatever the case, officials from both districts are offering assurances that immigrant students are welcome at their schools and children in the country illegally have the right to attend public schools. “Your child — and every child, regardless of immigration status — is welcome and safe in our schools. Undocumented children and young adults have the same right to attend public primary and secondary schools as U.S. citizens and permanent residents,” reads a message sent Wednesday to Ogden School District students and families, similar to a message sent by the Salt Lake City School District.
Prior policy dating to President Barack Obama’s administration aimed to ensure that U.S. immigration raids and enforcement actions weren’t “focused on sensitive locations such as schools and churches” except in certain dire circumstances. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, oversees the enforcement of U.S. immigration law. A 2011 policy document states that exceptions include instances when there is “an imminent risk of death, violence or physical harm” and when national security is at risk.
Under the new policy — one of several changes by President Donald Trump meant to crack down on illegal immigration — the prior guidelines are rescinded and action is allowed at schools and churches. As characterized in Tuesday’s announcement of the change, however, the focus of any raids or other enforcement action would be criminals. “Common sense” would guide actions.
“This action empowers the brave men and women in (the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency) and ICE to enforce our immigration laws and catch criminal aliens — including (murderers) and rapists — who have illegally come into our country. Criminals will no longer be able to hide in America’s schools and churches to avoid arrest,” the announcement reads. “The Trump administration will not tie the hands of our brave law enforcement, and instead trusts them to use common sense.”
Chatwin, like Ogden school officials, said Salt Lake City schools are still open to all students regardless of their migratory status, notwithstanding the policy shift implemented Monday, the first day of Trump’s second term. Both districts have sizable populations of Hispanic and English-language learners.
“There’s always concern with the unknown,” Chatwin said. “What we do know has not changed is that our schools remain welcoming spaces, and every student, no matter their immigration status, is entitled to receive their education in our schools. So we are committed to that.”
Despite the assurances, letters sent to family and students in both districts acknowledged that the new Department of Homeland Security policy may cause unease. The messages also noted that officials in each district don’t collect information about the immigration status of students or their parents. “We know this is a concern for many in our community and want you to know we are aware of this policy change,” reads the letter from the Salt Lake City school system.
Both the Ogden and Salt Lake City school systems implemented “safe school” resolutions in 2017, during Trump’s first term, amid jitters about possible immigration enforcement actions against students in the country illegally. Salt Lake City school officials reaffirmed their resolution last December following Trump’s victory in the presidential race and his talk of bolstering deportations. Ogden school officials reaffirmed their resolution just last week, on Jan. 16.
Looking for more news from Utah’s Latino community? Visit our Voces de Utah section for more stories, events and features.
“We want to make sure that our community knows that we keep safety at the forefront for all our students, and we wanted to share that with our families and students,” said Arlene Anderson, vice president of the Ogden school board.
The resolutions emphasize that both districts are welcoming places to kids, regardless of their migratory status. The Ogden resolution asks that ICE officials give seven days’ notice of any “visit” to school grounds, among other things. The Salt Lake City resolution says the district won’t allow access to students “unless required by law” and will take steps to protect students’ rights.
As Ogden officials debated their resolution last week, one Ogden school board member questioned how much impact it would potentially have. “I just think we’re stating things in the document that aren’t legally binding. So are you giving false assurance?” said Jennifer Zundel.
Utah County entrepreneur pleads guilty to security fraud charges involving 530 victims
By Pat Reavy, KSL.com | Updated – Jan. 23, 2025 at 3:53 p.m. | Posted – Jan. 23, 2025 at 1:27 p.m.
A Utah County entrepreneur has pleaded guilty in federal court to costing hundreds of clients millions of dollars after selling securities illegally. (Scott G Winterton, Deseret News)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Utah County businessman Jeremiah Evans pleaded guilty to securities fraud and money laundering charges.
- Evans admitted to defrauding 530 victims of approximately $20.9 million through Alpha Influence.
- Sentencing is scheduled for April 3.
SALT LAKE CITY — A Utah County entrepreneur has pleaded guilty in federal court to costing hundreds of clients millions of dollars after selling securities illegally.
Jeremiah “The Bull” Joseph Evans was charged Tuesday with securities fraud and money laundering. Evans is the owner of Alpha Influence LLC. “Neither Evans nor Alpha Influence was licensed to offer or sell securities,” according to charging documents filed in U.S. district court.
On Thursday, during his initial appearance in federal court, Evans pleaded guilty to both counts. He is scheduled to be sentenced on April 3.
From July 2019 through July 2022, Evans “devised and intended to devise a scheme and artifice to defraud investors, and to obtain money and property by means of materially false and fraudulent pretenses, representations, promises and omissions of material facts,” the charges state. “During the course and scope of the scheme, approximately $20,894,674 was wired or otherwise sent to accounts held in the name of Alpha Influence and controlled by Evans by approximately 530 victims.”
In court documents, federal prosecutors allege Evans defrauded victims by making false or misleading statements or leaving out material facts, including:
- Alpha Influence had been operating successfully for years when it had not.
- That the investment would generate consistent, predictable monthly returns when it did not.
- That investment principal would be recouped within 12 to 18 months when it was not.
- That the investment would earn an average of 7%-10% return on investment per month in profit after expenses when it did not.
- That Alpha Influence and Evans had connections with high-ranking Amazon staff at Amazon’s corporate headquarters in Seattle who were readily accessible to solve problems that might arise with the Alpha Influence investment when he did not.
- That Alpha Influence employed a legal team to assist with resolving issues for individual investors when it did not.
- Failed to disclose that Alpha Influence was unable to resolve store suspensions and could not get many stores operational after they were shut down for violation of Amazon policies.
- Failed to disclose that several testimonials provided in support of Alpha Influence and the success of the investment offered were made by relatives of Evans or others who received commissions from investor proceeds.
Evans made a $50,000 downpayment on a Lamborghini using the proceeds from the securities fraud, the charges state.
In November, Kole Glen Brimhall, 27, of Orem, admitted to defrauding clients of more than $4.9 million. Brimhall fraudulently sold investments in e-commerce stores through Alpha Influence, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for Utah.
In 2022, Evans hosted Alpha Con in Salt Lake City. A year after the ridiculed conference took place, dozens of complaints began to stack up at the Utah Department of Commerce’s Division of Consumer Protection.
Evans, who has his own podcast, describes himself on his website as “a former Division One quarterback and online entrepreneur. He has achieved over $70 million in online sales across seven different industries. … Throughout his career, he has helped over 300 students make their first six-figures online with over 15 of them doing over seven-figures in online sales.”
Evans is listed as a quarterback for BYU in 2017 but never played in a game.
Disney CEO Iger’s Compensation Ballooned by 30% in 2024
Sheryl ShethJan 23, 2025, 10:59 PM
Story Highlights
Walt Disney’s CEO Bob Iger received a 31% jump in compensation in 2024. He earned a total of $41.1 million last year, significantly better over the $31.6 million earned in Fiscal 2023.
Entertainment giant The Walt Disney Co.’s DIS +1.05% ▲ CEO Bob Iger’s total compensation for Fiscal 2024 ballooned by 30%, according to a proxy statement filed with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). Iger’s base salary was $1 million, while he earned $18.3 million in stock awards, $12 million in option awards, $7.2 million in bonuses, and $2.1 million in other benefits. Disney is also on the path to selecting a suitable successor for Iger in 2026 as Iger’s contract expires on December 31, 2026.
https://www.ksl.com/article/51234179/eggs-prices-keep-climbing-supplies-drop-amid-bird-flu
Eggs prices keep climbing, supplies drop amid bird flu
By Lois M. Collins, Deseret News | Posted – Jan. 22, 2025 at 5:02 p.m.
This year, Americans could find themselves on an egg hunt. (Terry Chea, Associated Press)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Egg prices continue to rise due to bird flu and reduced supplies.
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports increasing egg prices and limited availability.
- Eggs remain safe to eat, with the FDA advising proper storage and cooking.
SALT LAKE CITY — Who doesn’t remember the toilet paper shortage of 2020, when shoppers were looking for the product at 5 a.m. and stores were limiting how much you could buy?
This year, Americans could find themselves on an egg hunt.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture notes some stores have been limiting how many cartons of eggs consumers can buy at one time. And in some refrigerator cases, the eggs themselves have gone missing, replaced by signs saying there’s a shortage.
And if those clues weren’t enough to say something is happening to this food staple, the price at the check stand gets attention. Egg prices are high. In December, the last month for which a national average is available, they averaged $4.15 a dozen nationwide, per the Consumer Price Index, continuing a recent upward trend.
In January 2024, a dozen large grade A eggs cost $2.52 on average. In November, the price was $3.65, according to the index, which is based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. USA Today reported that in parts of California, a dozen eggs cost $8.97 in early January.
Report ad
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Friday that “asking prices for next week’s deliveries are trending higher on all sizes.” Meanwhile, supplies are “light to moderate.”
Consumers can blame bird flu for the disruptions in the egg market, experts say. Close to 40 million egg-laying hens that are part of the commercial egg supply chain died as a result of the influenza strain and also because of fires.
U.S. chickens were hit hard by avian influenza in 2022 and prices began to rise as an increasing number of chickens that had become ill were culled from flocks. Additionally, The Washington Post has reported that some states now require that eggs only be sold if they are produced by cage-free chickens. Egg producers say that raises the cost of eggs.
Even so, Egg Board CEO Emily Metz told the Post by email that there’s been high demand for eggs. And reduced supply amid high demand typically means higher prices.
If avian flu continues to impact the hen population, as Department of Agriculture officials expect, prices are likely to continue their climb.
Are eggs safe to eat amid avian flu outbreak?
Does the virus pose a risk for consumers who eat eggs? Not likely, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. For one thing, bird flu is easily detected in flocks; you can tell they’re sick and the eggs of sick hens are not in the food supply chain. “Low” is how the FDA classified the risk that contaminated eggs make it to the grocery store. “And proper storage and preparation further reduce the risk,” the agency said.
“For instance, when a case of highly pathogenic avian flu is detected in the U.S., the chance of infected poultry or eggs entering the food chain is low because of the rapid onset of symptoms in poultry as well as the safeguards in place, which include testing of flocks and federal inspection programs,” FDA adds, noting zero evidence that illness can be transmitted to people by way of food that has been properly prepared.
So how do you properly prepare eggs during a bird flu outbreak?
Among the FDA’s “Playing it safe with eggs” advice:
- Only buy eggs that are kept in a refrigerated case at the store.
- Look at them to be sure none of the eggs are cracked and that they are clean.
- After buying them, store your eggs in a refrigerator set at 40° Fahrenheit or below.
- Cook eggs until both yolk and white are firm. Don’t eat runny scrambled eggs, either.
- Casseroles and other dishes that contain eggs should be cooked to 160° Fahrenheit.
- If recipes call for raw or undercooked egg, choose shell eggs treated for salmonella or pasteurized egg products.
As a side note, the FDA cautions against drinking raw milk, as traces of the H5N1 virus have been detected in some tested raw milk supplies. Milk that has been pasteurized has proven to be safe.
10 favorite stocks from Bank of America research for 2025
Published Sun, Jan 26 20257:09 AM EST
In this article
Shoppers walk in front a Ross Dress For Less store at Monroe Marketplace in Pennsylvania.
Paul Weaver | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Stocks that could outperform in 2025 include artificial intelligence poster child Nvidia and discount retailer Ross Stores, according to Bank of America.
This year, Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian believes that the bull market rally has more room to grow. The strategist’s year-end target for the S&P 500 is 6,666, representing 9% upside from the benchmark’s Friday closing level of 6,101.24.
“Savita is calling for a ‘cyclical inferno’ driven by: (1) Red sweep, (2) Fed cuts, (3) accelerating profits, (4) reshoring, (5) productivity cycle, (6) shift from everyone spending on Tech to Tech spending on everything, (7) municipalities refurbishing to court corporates, (8) tight capacity / decades of underspend in manufacturing, and (9) lightest positioning in cyclical sectors since at least the [global financial crisis],” Bank of America wrote in the note to clients.
Against this backdrop, the bank released a selection of its top stock picks for 2025. The table below includes 10 of the names Bank of America analysts highlighted as their year ahead picks:
Bank of America’s top stock picks for 2025
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Price Objective |
| McCormick | MKC | Food-Commodities | $96 |
| Danaher | DHR | Industrials/Multi-Industry | $290 |
| Ross Stores | ROST | Retailing-Specialty | $180 |
| United Airlines | UAL | Airlines | $120 |
| Chevron | CVX | Oil & Gas Producers | $180 |
| Wells Fargo | WFC | Banks-U.S. Regionals | $86 |
| Eastman Chemical | EMN | Chemicals-Major | $109 |
| Booz Allen Hamilton | BAH | Defense Electronics | $210 |
| Amazon | AMZN | Internet/E-Commerce | $225 |
| Nvidia | NVDA | Semiconductors | $190 |
Source: Bank of America
One name is spice manufacturer McCormick. Shares have risen almost 14% in the past 12 months, but analyst Peter Galbo’s $96 price objective implies additional upside ahead of more than 28%.
Galbo pointed to the stock’s relative valuation versus the market and its peers as one catalyst.
“We also expect MKC to build on the gross margin expansion momentum as cost inflation continues to ease and productivity takes hold,” he said. “We expect FY24 volume growth to continue into FY25 as laps easy compares and executes on its initiatives.”
Most analysts covering the name have rated it as a hold, although the average price target corresponds to a 16% upside, according to LSEG.
McCormick & Company Inc
ANALYST CONSENSUS
17
Ratings
Buy
4 Strong Buy
3 Buy
9 Hold
1 Underperform
0 Sell
Current PriceLast updated | 4:10 PM EST
76.95
+2.06 (+2.75%)
Highest Price Target
96.00
Average Price Target
86.18
Upside (11.99%)
Lowest Price Target
79.00
Bank of America also pointed to life sciences company Danaher as another potential winner. Shares of Danaher have added 7.5% in the last 12 months.
“Following the 2016 spinoff of industrial-themed Fortive, Danaher became one of the premier standalone life sciences companies,” wrote analyst Michael Ryskin. “The acquisition of GE’s Life Sciences (now called Cytiva) business and the divestiture of the lagging dental segment are transformational for the company as they should sharply improve organic sales growth, margin profile, and free cash flow generation potential.”
Ryskin’s $290 price objective is approximately 18% above where shares of Danaher closed on Friday.
Wall Street analysts across the board are bullish on Danaher, with most analysts covering the name assigning it either a “strong buy” or “buy” rating. The average price target implies a 15% upside for the stock from here.
Danaher Corp
ANALYST CONSENSUS
29
Ratings
Buy
10 Strong Buy
13 Buy
6 Hold
0 Underperform
0 Sell
Current PriceLast updated | 4:10 PM EST
250.59
+4.79 (+1.95%)
Highest Price Target
315.00
Average Price Target
283.04
Upside (12.95%)
Lowest Price Target
250.00
Discount retailer Ross Stores has popped almost 8% in the last 12 months, but analyst Lorraine Hutchinson’s $180 price objective corresponds to an additional rally of more than 20%.
“We expect Ross to gain market share as inventory flow normalizes and it benefits from a trade down. The company has a long history of being able to grow in good and bad macroeconomic environments,” she wrote.
Hutchinson pointed to Ross’ solid track record of returning excess cash to shareholders as an additional catalyst. The analyst added that the company has the potential to nearly double its existing footprint.
Most analysts covering the stock have assigned it either a “strong buy” or “buy rating,” while the average price target is approximately 13% higher than where shares of Ross are currently trading.
Ross Stores Inc
ANALYST CONSENSUS
22
Ratings
Buy
6 Strong Buy
7 Buy
9 Hold
0 Underperform
0 Sell
Current PriceLast updated | 4:00 PM EST
146.01
-3.27 (-2.19%)
Highest Price Target
189.00
Average Price Target
168.30
Upside (15.27%)
Lowest Price Target
124.09
Artificial intelligence beneficiary Nvidia also made the list. The “Magnificent Seven” titan has surged 132% in the last 12 months.
Despite this rally, analyst Vivek Arya’s $190 price target implies the stock still has upside of about 33% ahead.
“Our positive view on Nvidia is based on its underappreciated transformation from a traditional PC graphics chip vendor, into a supplier into high-end gaming, enterprise graphics, cloud, accelerated computing and automotive markets,” he remarked. “The company has executed consistently and has a solid balance sheet with demonstrated commitment to capital returns.”
Analysts covering Nvidia have overwhelmingly assigned the stock either a “strong buy” or “buy” rating. The consensus price target is nearly 20% above where shares are currently trading, LSEG said.
NVIDIA Corp
ANALYST CONSENSUS
62
Ratings
Buy
21 Strong Buy
35 Buy
6 Hold
0 Underperform
0 Sell
Current PriceLast updated | 4:15 PM EST
118.42
-24.20 (-16.97%)
Highest Price Target
220.00
Average Price Target
171.69
Upside (44.98%)
Lowest Price Target
75.40
Other names on Bank of America’s list of year-ahead top picks included airline carrier United Airlines, energy producer Chevron and e-commerce giant Amazon
U.S. and Colombia reach deal on deportations; tariffs and sanctions put on hold
Published Sun, Jan 26 202511:51 PM ESTUpdated Mon, Jan 27 20258:26 AM EST
The U.S. and Colombia pulled back from the brink of a trade war on Sunday after the White House said the South American nation had agreed to accept military aircraft carrying deported migrants.
U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened tariffs and sanctions on Colombia to punish it for earlier refusing to accept military flights carrying deportees as part of his sweeping immigration crackdown.
But in a statement late on Sunday, the White House said Colombia had agreed to accept the migrants after all and Washington would not impose its threatened penalties.
“The Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay,” it said.
Draft orders imposing tariffs and sanctions on Colombia would be “held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement”, it added.
“Today’s events make clear to the world that America is respected again. President Trump … expects all other nations of the world to fully cooperate in accepting the deportation of their citizens illegally present in the United States,” the White House statement said.
In a statement late on Sunday, Colombian Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo said: “We have overcome the impasse with the U.S. government”.
“The government of Colombia … has the presidential plane ready to facilitate the return of Colombians who were going to arrive in the country this morning on deportation flights.”
The statement did not specifically say that the agreement included military flights, but it did not contradict the White House announcement.
Murillo and Colombia’s ambassador to the United States will travel to Washington in coming days to follow up on agreements that led to the exchange of diplomatic notes between the two governments, the Colombian statement added.
Washington’s draft measures, now on hold, include imposing 25% tariffs on all Colombian goods coming into the U.S., which would go up to 50% in one week; a travel ban and visa revocations on Colombian government officials; and emergency treasury, banking and financial sanctions.
Trump also threatened to direct enhanced border inspections of Colombian nationals and cargo. Ahead of the announcement of an agreement on the flights, a State Department spokesperson said the United States had suspended visa processing at the U.S. embassy in Bogota.
Colombia is the third-largest U.S. trading partner in Latin America.
The U.S. is Colombia’s largest trading partner, largely due to a 2006 free trade agreement that generated $33.8 billion in two-way trade in 2023 and a $1.6 billion U.S. trade surplus, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
Alejo Czerwonko, chief investment officer for emerging markets Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, said Colombia relied on access to the U.S. market for about a third of its exports, or about 4% of its GDP.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro earlier condemned the military deportation flights and said he would never carry out a raid to return handcuffed Americans to the U.S.
“We are the opposite of the Nazis,” he wrote in a post on social media platform X.
He also said however that Colombia would welcome home deported migrants on civilian planes, and offered his presidential plane to facilitate their “dignified return”.
‘Degrading treatment’
Trump declared illegal immigration a national emergency and has imposed a crackdown since taking office last Monday.
He directed the U.S. military to help with border security, issued a broad ban on asylum and took steps to restrict citizenship for children born on U.S. soil.
The use of U.S. military aircraft to carry out deportation flights is unusual. U.S. military aircraft carried out two flights, each with about 80 migrants, to Guatemala on Friday.
Mexico also refused a request last week to let a U.S. military aircraft land with migrants.
Trump has said he is thinking about imposing 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1 to force further action against illegal immigrants and fentanyl flowing into the U.S.
Brazil’s foreign ministry on Saturday condemned “degrading treatment” of Brazilians after migrants were handcuffed on a commercial deportation flight. Upon arrival, some passengers also reported mistreatment during the flight, according to news reports.
The plane, which was carrying 88 Brazilian passengers, 16 U.S. security agents, and eight crew members, had been originally scheduled to arrive in Belo Horizonte in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais.
However, at an unscheduled stop due to technical problems in Manaus, capital of Amazonas, Brazilian officials ordered removal of the handcuffs, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva designated a Brazilian Air Force (FAB) flight to complete their journey, the government said in a statement on Saturday.
The commercial charter flight was the second this year from the U.S. carrying undocumented migrants deported back to Brazil and the first since Trump’s inauguration, according to Brazil’s federal police.
U.S. officials did not reply to requests for comment about Brazil.
HI Financial Services Mid-Week 06-24-2014